All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 1
Record: 28-7
Conference: ACC
vs.
Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 9
Record: 20-14
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Saturday, March 23
Time: 5:30pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Charlotte, NC
Channel: CBS
The Tar Heels and Spartans have met in the Final Four in 2009, 2005, and 1957, with UNC winning each time.
North Carolina Michigan St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #8 Strength: #17
Median: #9 Median: #17
Markov: #6 Markov: #19
Pomeroy: #9 Pomeroy: #18
Offense: #24 Offense: #57
Defense: #6 Defense: #8
BPI: #11 BPI: #18
LRMC: #7 LRMC: #19
Other Measures:
SOS: #19 SOS: #9
Tempo (Offense): #36 Tempo (Offense): #206
Consistency: #105 Consistency: #152
Str + Reliability: #6 Str + Reliability: #16
Str + Potential: #14 Str + Potential: #22
2nd half season: #9 2nd half season: #32
Last 6: #6 Last 6: #19
Injury Mod Rank: #12 Injury Mod Rank: #18
Tourney 4-year: #6 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #22
North Carolina isn't the toughest 1-seed; they rank only #8 in Strength, #9 in Pomeroy, and #11 in BPI. LRMC puts them #7. But there has to be a weaker 1-seed and this year when there were three obvious top teams, it falls to the Tar Heels to be that team. Meanwhile Michigan State is a very strong 9-seed across the board.
They're essentially even on defense, while North Carolina plays better offense. The Tar Heels also play at a very fast clip while the Spartans are moderate. This should be closer than your normal 1- vs. 9-seed game.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (2)Tennessee+8, @(6)Clemson+10, @(11)N.C. State+13, (4)Duke+9, @(10)Virginia+10, (11)N.C. State+9, @(4)Duke+5, =(16)Wagner+28
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(1)Connecticut-11, =(3)Kentucky-4, (6)Clemson-4, =(11)N.C. State-8
- Other losses (3): =Villanova-OT, @Georgia Tech-1, @Syracuse-7
Overview: The best way to look at North Carolina this year is to look at their losses. The first three, to Villanova, 83-81 in overtime, in the Bahamas; to 1-seed UConn (87-76) in New York and to 3-seed Kentucky (87-83) in Atlanta, are not bad performances at all. The next three: at Georgia Tech 74-73; 6-seed Clemson 80-76; and at Syracuse 86-79, are a level down but not awful. The last one: NC State 84-76 in Washington DC. That rates as their worst loss. None of them are that terrible. Most would say the Georgia Tech loss was their worst but it was by a point on the road, that can happen to any team. According to my numbers, UNC has the best "worst game" of any team except Duke.
Now let's talk about their wins: 100-92 over 2-seed Tennessee is by far their best, and in conference they beat Duke a couple times.Their losses are more impressive than their wins! Kind of a weak résumé for a 1-seed, but the choices were slim and Tennessee was one of the "finalists" and the Tar Heels won the head-to-head.
North Carolina plays its usual up-tempo basketball, scoring led by RJ Davis at 21.4 points, and Armando Bacot with 10.2 rebounds per game. The duo are all that's left of the 2022 Final Four team. Davis had 22 and Bacot 20 against Wagner.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (3)Baylor+24, (14)Oakland+17, (3)Illinois+8, (9)Northwestern+4, =(8)Mississippi St.+18
- Losses to tournament teams (10): (12)James Madison-OT, =(4)Duke-9, =(2)Arizona-6, (5)Wisconsin-13, @(8)Nebraska-7, @(9)Northwestern-14, @(3)Illinois-3, @(5)Wisconsin-15, @(1)Purdue-6, =(1)Purdue-5
- Other losses (4): @Minnesota-3, Iowa-7, Ohio St.-3, @Indiana-1
Overview: Ranked #4 in the pre-season, the Spartans haven't lived up to that billing by a long shot, from the opening overtime loss to James Madison. There was a brief stretch where they looked great, as they beat Baylor 88-64 (game 10) through the 92-61 win over Penn State (game 14), but they never hit their stride consistently. They never seemed to be motivated, as seen in their final stretch of games where they tried their best to play away their NCAA bid by losing 4 of 5 before the Big Ten tournament.
Four Spartans average double figures led by Tyson Walker's 18.2, but defense is the strong suit of the team. Walker led with 19 in the win over Mississippi State.
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Game Analysis: Tom Izzo is due for a Final Four; it's been 5 years and he makes the Final Four at least once every 5 year. But technically it's only been 4 tournament years.
North Carolina missed the tournament last year after finishing #2 in 2022. They got a 1-seed and the team seems motivated. Something's gotta give.
The obvious edge UNC has is better offensive play, as the teams are both top ten squads defensively. Interestingly North Carolina doesn't shoot the ball any better than the Spartans, they just rebound a lot better and get to the free throw line a lot more. They make over 75% from the stripe compared to MSU's sub-71%.
Vegas Line:
North Carolina by 3 1/2
Power rating: spread
North Carolina by 2.7 / 5.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
North Carolina: 59.5%
Michigan State: 40.5%
This is a close game as the Vegas line indicates. But it's wider than the Strength power rating which is telling: it looks like Vegas in considering home court advantage for the Tar Heels playing in-state with a crush of fans. With full home court we have UNC a 5.6 point favorite, and their odds go from about 60% to 66%. The normal odds for a 1-seed to beat a 9-seed are pretty shocking: 92%. Only 8-seeds manage to beat 1-seeds, around 20% of the time. But these odds show how close this game is compared to normal 1 vs. 9s.
Bottom line: It's North Carolina's redemption vs. the Izzo effect. One of these teams is a solid choice for the Final Four, and both played great in the opener. When making my brackets I strongly considered having Michigan State advance here, but ultimately I stuck with the Tar Heels, and playing close to home might be the difference.
Final prediction: North Carolina 73, Michigan State 70
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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