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Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 31-4
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Texas A&M Aggies
Seed: 9
Record: 21-14
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Sunday, March 23
Time: 8:40pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Memphis, TN
Channel: TNT
Houston erased some of the memory of their final game with Iowa State, and Texas A&M beat Nebraska pretty easily.
Houston Texas A&M
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #49
Median: #2 Median: #33
Markov: #2 Markov: #30
Pomeroy: #2 Pomeroy: #39
Offense: #15 Offense: #28
Defense: #1 Defense: #64
BPI: #1 BPI: #36
LRMC: #2 LRMC: #43
Other Measures:
SOS: #13 SOS: #29
Tempo (Offense): #321 Tempo (Offense): #204
Consistency: #125 Consistency: #326
Str + Reliability: #1 Str + Reliability: #69
Str + Potential: #4 Str + Potential: #37
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #42
Last 6: #2 Last 6: #8
Injury Mod Rank: #2 Injury Mod Rank: #48
Tourney 4-year: #2 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #38
Houston's season-wide figures are pretty astounding; they're #1 in Strength and BPI, and #2 in Pomeroy and LRMC. They're back to being ranked #1 in Defense, and have been top 25 on Offense all year too. Texas A&M's numbers are what you would expect of a 9-seed, a range in the top 50. Their offense is almost top 25, so they should present at least a challenge to Houston's #1 defense, and while their defense isn't great they won't be a walkover when Houston has the ball. But is there real hope of beating the Cougars?
The Cougars do play a slow tempo, which many have noted keeps games closer no matter the chasm in production between two teams. And A&M has a lot of inconsistency on its side. They just need to have that manifest on the upside—and get an upset—rather than on the downside and get blown out.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (13): (16)Stetson+31, =(7)Dayton+14, (9)Texas A&M+4, (6)Texas Tech+23, @(6)BYU+7, @(7)Texas+OT, (7)Texas+21, (2)Iowa St.+8, @(3)Baylor+OT, (4)Kansas+30, =(9)TCU+15, =(6)Texas Tech+23, =(16)Longwood+40
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Iowa St.-4, @(9)TCU-1, @(4)Kansas-13, =(2)Iowa St.-28
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Now that's what I call a 1-seed résumé: a dozen wins over tournament teams; a handful of losses to tournament teams; and no losses to non-tourney teams. It looks like a national champ's chart—until that last loss to Iowa State, which raised questions on how it might affect them going forward. In the first round against Longwood they went up 10-0 immediately and led 43-16 at the half. No hangover at all.
Houston's defense (#2 shot defense; #3 in blocked shots; #2 in steals) is the key to their success, but their offense is top-level, too; they play a slower, methodical offense which emphasizes crashing the boards for rebounds, which they need because frankly they don't shoot the ball very well (#229 in effective FG%). Three Cougars average in double figures led by LJ Cryer's 15.3. Cryer and Damien Dunn led with 17 each against Longwood.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(2)Iowa St.+4, (3)Kentucky+OT, (7)Florida+1, (2)Tennessee+16, (8)Mississippi St.+6, =(3)Kentucky+10, =(8)Nebraska+15
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(8)Florida Atlantic-7, @(10)Virginia-12, @(1)Houston-4, @(4)Auburn-11, @(4)Alabama-25, @(2)Tennessee-35, (6)South Carolina-2, =(7)Florida-5
- Other losses (6): Memphis-6, LSU-15, @Arkansas-1, Mississippi-3, @Vanderbilt-1, Arkansas-7
Overview: Texas A&M is all over the place and very streaky, as you can see. They lost to Florida Atlantic early but beat Iowa State; at the time FAU was considered the bigger skin, but that win over the Cyclones paid dividends. They lost to 1-seed Houston a few games later. In SEC play they beat 3-seed Kentucky twice and split with 2-seed Tennessee, beating the Volunteers 85-69 in mid February. Following that win, the Aggies lost five straight in terrible fashion, including a loss at 9-23 Vanderbilt and at home to Arkansas. So of course they switched things up and won five straight, beating Mississippi and Kentucky before falling to Florida in the SEC tournament. If they put another string of games that good together they might make the Final Four.
Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford combine for 35 points per game for the Aggies. The team averages 47 rebounds per game, which is crucial to their success as we'll find out. Against Nebraska they had 40 rebounds, while Taylor had 25 points while making 7 of 10 threes.
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Game Analysis: Last time when reviewing Texas A&M I wondered how they even won games at all with their poor shooting, and concluded there were three reasons: Wade Taylor, Tyrece Radford, and rebounding. Can these things bring an upset win over Houstons?
Taylor and Radford are key to A&M because they score points, something the rest of the team doesn't do much of. Rebounding is absolutely critical because the team shoots terribly.
Against Houston's defense, here are some stats via Kenpom: A&M's #340 effective field goal% vs. Houston's #2 effective FG defense%; #344 on 3s vs. #9 defense against 3s; #305 on 2s vs. #3 vs. 2s. How are they going to get a shot to go in?
Rebounding will be their saving grace in this game. A&M is #1 in offensive rebounding while Houston is #221 in defensive rebounding. They'll get their 2nd shots, and some 3rds too.
Also they might get to the foul line quite a bit, which helps. And Houston's normal clutch of takeaways is going to be harder to come by as A&M protects the ball pretty well (Houston is #1 in steals). But the Cougars might look like Phi Slamma Jamma with the blocked shots, where they are #2 and the Aggies are the 7th-most blocked team in the country.
So it looks like the Aggies will get the ball down the court safely for the most part, get their shots off, miss most of them (many of them blocked), and get lots of rebounds and 2nd shots. And then some of those that aren't blocked will go in.
It's at least a hope that their offense will be productive against Houston. And then what about stopping Houston's offense? The Cougars are somewhat similar—somewhat—in that they don't shoot well and they get offensive rebounds. Not to the same degree as A&M, but similar. The A&M defense is fairly mediocre across the board but good enough to defend the Cougars reasonably well.
Any hope of catching Houston in an uncertain and psychologically damaged state following the Iowa State loss is over, as the Cougars played one of their best games of the season in the first round. A&M's biggest hope comes from their previous meeting in December where they played Houston very close, losing just 70-66 after Houston had led by 21 points.
In that game the Aggies shot 43% on 2s (a bit below their 47% average, and similar to what Houston normally allows) and made 9 of 27 threes, a bit above their 29% average and Houston's 30% allow rate. They got 17 offensive rebounds at a 45% rate, a bit above their norm (42%). Houston had only 2 steals (3% rate well below their 16% average), and 10 blocks, a 36% rate well above their 16% average. So the "on paper" plan basically happened. A&M did get to the free throw line quite a bit, 22 times to Houston's 7, also what we would expect on paper. The game was played in Houston but not in Houston's home arena. With semi-home court advantage taken into account, it was essentially a toss-up. The reason? Wade Taylor went off for 34 points (six 3's, all in the 2nd half), almost single-handedly winning the game for the Aggies. He'll need to reproduce those heroics, but I'm sure Houston is making plans to stop him from doing so.
Vegas Line:
Houston by 9 1/2
Power rating: spread
Houston by 12.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Houston: 79.9%
Texas A&M: 20.1%
The line is a bit lower than I'd expect after Houston's huge first-round win, but the Aggies played very well, too. Houston's 80% chance to win is basically spot-on with the historical odds for a 1-seed facing an 8-seed, but 9-seeds only win 8% of the time, which is probably a fluke but who knows.
Bottom line: Analysis aside, I think Houston is "back" and they will catch A&M on a down day—and not let them make a comeback this time.
Final prediction: Houston 80, Texas A&M 59
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