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Utah State Aggies
Seed: 8
Record: 27-6
Conference: Mountain West
vs.
TCU Horned Frogs
Seed: 9
Record: 21-12
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 9:55pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
Another 8 vs. 9 game, let's see what the numbers say:
Utah State TCU
Power Ratings
Strength: #48 Strength: #28
Median: #49 Median: #20
Markov: #60 Markov: #32
4-year: #37 4-year: #24
Pomeroy: #48 Pomeroy: #33
Offense: #39 Offense: #44
Defense: #68 Defense: #31
BPI: #68 BPI: #26
LRMC: #54 LRMC: #37
Other Measures:
SOS: #92 SOS: #62
Tempo (Offense): #117 Tempo (Offense): #31
Consistency: #81 Consistency: #2
Str + Reliability: #31 Str + Reliability: #10
Str + Potential: #66 Str + Potential: #68
2nd half season: #69 2nd half season: #27
Last 6: #105 Last 6: #51
Injury Mod Rank: #49 Injury Mod Rank: #28
Tourney 4-year: #29 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #24
The numbers say TCU is the better team, by 20 spots in Strength, 15 in Pomeroy, 42 in BPI, and 17 in LRMC. I wonder why the BPI hates Utah State so much? It looks like the Mountain West teams are quite a bit lower in the BPI. Maybe it explicitly includes SOS as a separate factor? I wonder if they changed the formula recently, I'm seeing unexpected things from the BPI this year.
The difference in the teams, per Pomeroy's stats, is defense. On offense the two are roughly the same, with Utah State maybe being a bit better. But the separation occurs on the defensive side of the ball. Other than that, they're pretty similar, not even a big SOS difference which you might expect between Big Twelve and MWC schools. Both play a somewhat uptempo offense, though the Horned Frogs are even quicker to shoot. Both teams are consistent, but the Horned Frogs are #2 in the nation!
And both teams did worse in recent play. For Utah State it's been happening for a while and got really bad recently. TCU has been in a slump only very recently. Let's see what the charts say.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(14)Akron+3, (10)Colorado St.+5, @(10)Boise St.+OT, (10)Boise St.+19, (5)San Diego St.+5, (11)New Mexico+2
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(11)New Mexico-13, @(5)San Diego St.-14, (10)Nevada-14, @(10)Colorado St.-20, =(5)San Diego St.-16
- Other losses (1): @Bradley-OT
Overview: Utah State lost early but not often. In the 2nd game of the season they fell at Bradley, 72-66 in overtime, but then won 15 straight. Most weren't great opponents, but they beat 14-seed Akron, UC Irvine, and San Francisco. In the Mountain West they lost to 11-seed New Mexico, 5-seed San Diego State twice, 10-seed Nevada, and 10-seed Colorado State. They also beat all of those teams other than Nevada, and beat 10-seed Boise State twice, winning the MWC regular season. They did finish with a couple of dud games, needing overtime to beat Fresno State and falling to San Diego State by 16.
Utah State is led by Forward (and all-name team) Great Osobor, who averages 18 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Four Aggies average double figures.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): (1)Houston+1, @(3)Baylor+OT, (6)Texas Tech+7
- Losses to tournament teams (10): =(6)Clemson-8, =(10)Nevada-13, @(4)Kansas-2, (2)Iowa St.-1, (7)Texas-11, @(2)Iowa St.-12, @(6)Texas Tech-1, (3)Baylor-8, @(6)BYU-12, =(1)Houston-15
- Other losses (2): @Cincinnati-OT, UCF-2
Overview: TCU didn't often get wins over tournament teams, but when they did they went big, beating 1-seed Houston and 3-seed Baylor, and adding 6-seed Texas Tech for good measure. TCU's pre-Big Twelve schedule wasn't very strong at all which explains their middling SOS; they lost to 6-seed Clemson and 10-seed Nevada, and beat Major conference teams like Georgetown and Arizona State. In the Big Twelve they lost to just about every good team possible (with the exceptions mentions) and beat all the bad ones, splitting with the average ones (Cincinnati and UCF). Not hard to see how they are the #2 most consistent team in the country.
TCU is led by forward Emmanuel Miller's 15.9 points and 5.9 rebounds per game.
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Game Analysis: By the numbers this one should be close, but clear. TCU and Utah State are both very consistent, and the quicker tempo is conducive to sorting things out properly. TCU has also slipped less in the latter part of the season.
But is there a personnel matchup that would change our mind? Utah State is great at defending three-point shots, but TCU rarely takes them, and Aggies are poor at 2-point defense. More confirmation for the Frogs.
The Aggies don't shoot many threes either, so this will be the rare game without a constant barrage from behind the 3-point line. They have excellent 2-point shooting and should be able to exploit TCU's middling 2-point defense.
TCU is tasked with slowing down Great Osobor, but he's a 6-8 forward playing center, and TCU has good height underneath from many players. Meanwhile Emmanuel Miller is bigger than his Aggie counterparts. TCU is taller in the forward and center positions.
Vegas Line:
TCU by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
TCU by 2.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Utah St: 39.0%
TCU: 61.0%
We're not surprised to see TCU the favorite here, but the magnitude takes me by surprise. 4 1/2 points? I guess the oddsmakers figured what I figure: they're the better team, both teams are consistent, and there's nothing in the matchup to suggest otherwise. Also, over recent play TCU is about 6 points better.
The teams are so consistent that a 2.6 point margin in Strength converts to a 61% chance to win. Historically 9-seeds have won the slight majority, at 51.3%. Committee's gotta pick better 8-seeds, get them back to par. Maybe Utah State will help them out by getting an "upset."
Bottom line: I had no opinion coming into this one and TCU emerged the clear winner. Of course it's an 8- vs. 9- so it's mostly a tossup, but on paper this one comes down on the 9-seed's side pretty convincingly.
Final prediction: TCU 78, Utah State 75
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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