All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Seed: 8
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Texas A&M Aggies
Seed: 9
Record: 20-14
Conference: SEC
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 6:50pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Memphis, TN
Channel: TNT
Another tough to pick 8 vs. 9, and a good matchup for Memphis, Tennessee.
Nebraska Texas A&M
Power Ratings
Strength: #34 Strength: #50
Median: #26 Median: #38
Markov: #21 Markov: #30
4-year: #55 4-year: #43
Pomeroy: #28 Pomeroy: #44
Offense: #36 Offense: #31
Defense: #30 Defense: #57
BPI: #37 BPI: #36
LRMC: #28 LRMC: #43
Other Measures:
SOS: #69 SOS: #29
Tempo (Offense): #45 Tempo (Offense): #204
Consistency: #306 Consistency: #326
Str + Reliability: #48 Str + Reliability: #69
Str + Potential: #27 Str + Potential: #37
2nd half season: #34 2nd half season: #46
Last 6: #22 Last 6: #10
Injury Mod Rank: #24 Injury Mod Rank: #48
Tourney 4-year: #51 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #38
Let's start with Strength: Nebraska has the edge here, and both teams are better by the Median and Markov but Nebraska is still ahead. The 4-year Strength rankings reflect the fact that this year is an outlier for the Cornhuskers, but not the Aggies. Sometimes teams revert to the program mean come tournament time.
Pomeroy and LRMC also have the Cornhuskers ahead, but the BPI has grown an independent streak lately and is picking against the others; they have the Aggies by a nose, #36 to #37. The offense and defense figures from Pomeroy are clustered around the 30s except for Texas A&M's defense.
The big number here is Consistency; with both teams in the 300s it's almost a fool's errand to worry about the other numbers, particularly if they're close. Both teams improved in the 2nd half of the season and in recent play, but again, how reliable is that when the team's ratings are all over the place?
Nebraska' Injury Modification ranking reflects their better score when games without Juwon Gary and others are subtracted. It pretty much matches their recent performance with their full-strength lineup.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (11)Duquesne+10, (9)Michigan St.+7, (1)Purdue+16, (9)Northwestern+6, (5)Wisconsin+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (5): (3)Creighton-29, @(5)Wisconsin-16, @(3)Illinois-OT, @(9)Northwestern-12, =(3)Illinois-11
- Other losses (5): @Minnesota-11, @Iowa-18, @Rutgers-OT, @Maryland-22, @Ohio St.-9
Overview: Nebraska hasn't made the tournament since they won their first and only game in 2014. But they've looked like a tournament team pretty much all year, starting out 13-3 with a win over 1-seed Purdue. They lost 5 of their next 8 games but recovered to win 7 of their next 8 before losing to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament.
Nebraska is led by Keisei Tominaga's 14.9 points, with four starters in double figures.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(2)Iowa St.+4, (3)Kentucky+OT, (7)Florida+1, (2)Tennessee+16, (8)Mississippi St.+6, =(3)Kentucky+10
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(8)Florida Atlantic-7, @(10)Virginia-12, @(1)Houston-4, @(4)Auburn-11, @(4)Alabama-25, @(2)Tennessee-35, (6)South Carolina-2, =(7)Florida-5
- Other losses (6): Memphis-6, LSU-15, @Arkansas-1, Mississippi-3, @Vanderbilt-1, Arkansas-7
Overview: Texas A&M is all over the place and very streaky, as you can see. They lost to Florida Atlantic early but beat Iowa State; at the time FAU was considered the bigger skin, but that win over the Cyclones paid dividends. They lost to 1-seed Houston a few games later. In SEC play they beat 3-seed Kentucky twice and split with 2-seed Tennessee, beating the Volunteers 85-69 in mid February. Following that win, the Aggies lost five straight in terrible fashion, including a loss at 9-23 Vanderbilt and at home to Arkansas. So of course they switched things up and won five straight, beating Mississippi and Kentucky before falling to Florida in the SEC tournament. If they put another string of games that good together they might make the Final Four.
Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford combine for 35 points per game for the Aggies. The team averages 47 rebounds per game, which is crucial to their success as we'll find out.
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Game Analysis: What can we say about this game? Not only is it a naturally close 8- vs. 9-seed matchup, but both teams are extremely erratic. Anyone who picks this game right shouldn't be proud, nor should anyone sweat it if they get it wrong.
Yet there are some amazing stats in Texas A&M's sheet. How can a team make the NCAA tournament with the #345 effective FG%? And shooting 28.4% from the 3-point line? Amazingly they take an average number of 3's, can't they get the hint? They don't even shoot the 2 well, how do they even score? The answer: volume. They are the #1 offensive rebounding team so they get lots of shots. They even get lots of shots blocked! (#359). How on earth does this add up to the #33 most efficient offense?
The answer seems to be two players: Taylor and Radford, who combine for 35 points out of the team's 75 point average. Nebraska's job seems simple: shut those two guards down. It makes the Aggies' inconsistency seem reasonable: when those two do well, the team wins, and it's easy for two players to excel or fail in any given game.
The question is what do they do in this one particular game? I do note that Nebraska is a fairly poor defensive rebounding team, which could be bad. You need to cut off their supply, and the Cornhuskers can't do it.
Vegas Line:
Nebraska by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Nebraska by 2.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Nebraska: 55.2%
Texas A&M: 44.8%
A close line with Nebraska ahead, just like all the power ratings (sans BPI).
Bottom line: This is a tight one. Nebraska is better, Texas A&M is hotter, but I just can't understand how they win any games let alone against tough teams. I certainly can't see them going on a deep run with their inconsistency and poor shooting, but I guess crazier things have happened. I'll take them for this game as their rebounding edge should be huge.
Final prediction: Texas A&M 73, Nebraska 71
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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