All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 8
Record: 25-8
Conference: American
vs.
Northwestern Wildcats
Seed: 9
Record: 21-11
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 12:15 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Channel: CBS
Fun Fact: Florida Atlantic had twice as many tournament wins last year (4) as Northwestern has in school history (2).
Florida Atlantic Northwestern
Power Ratings
Strength: #45 Strength: #49
Median: #35 Median: #58
Markov: #37 Markov: #31
4-year: #39 4-year: #45
Pomeroy: #41 Pomeroy: #46
Offense: #16 Offense: #30
Defense: #109 Defense: #72
BPI: #35 BPI: #39
LRMC: #33 LRMC: #48
Other Measures:
SOS: #86 SOS: #52
Tempo (Offense): #63 Tempo (Offense): #326
Consistency: #259 Consistency: #249
Str + Reliability: #51 Str + Reliability: #59
Str + Potential: #39 Str + Potential: #49
2nd half season: #66 2nd half season: #26
Last 6: #72 Last 6: #35
Injury Mod Rank: #46 Injury Mod Rank: #50
Tourney 4-year: #17 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #26
As is the case with most 8- vs. 9-matchups, the power ratings barely favor one team. FAU has a small advantage in Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI, while the distance is greater in the LRMC. It's also much bigger in the Median Strength measure, which probably trims some bad games from FAU and outlier good games from the Wildcats. But Northwestern wins in the Markov Chain, which is interesting since the LRMC favors FAU by quite a bit. The Owls look better on offense, the Wildcats on defense, but in both cases the team with the ball has the advantage.
The tempo difference is noteable, with Northwestern playing a methodical offense. FAU seems to have faded in the 2nd half of the season, while Northwestern is playing much better. If that trends hold then the Wildcats should win pretty easily. But if recent tournament success carries over (as some studies say it does), then last year's Final Four experience trumps Northwestern's single win in 2023. Both teams have only been in the tournament two times: last year, and 2002 for FAU, 2017 for Northwestern.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =(9)Texas A&M+7, (13)Charleston+16, =(2)Arizona+OT, (12)UAB+13
- Losses to tournament teams (2): =(3)Illinois-9, @(12)UAB-OT
- Other losses (6): Bryant-9, @Florida Gulf Coast-4, @Charlotte-2, @South Florida-4, @Memphis-4, =Temple-1
Overview: Will someone explain how Florida Atlantic got a better seed at 25-8 than they did last year at 31-3? They ranked better in all the power ratings last year, too. True, their SOS was only #124, and they only had a win over a 16-seed to their name. But they didn't have losses to Bryant (Pomeroy #173) FGCU (#242), and Charlotte (#119). I guess the real question is: why isn't this year's model better than last year's, when they returned every key player?
Early on that seemed to be the case, despite the inexplicable home loss to Bryant. The Owls won the ESPN Events tournament, beating 9-seed Texas A&M, then destroying Virginia Tech 84-50 in the final. They played 3-seed Illinois close in New York, and then beat 2-seed Arizona in Las Vegas in double overtime. At 10-2 they looked like a potential Final Four repeat. But after that they went flat; the highs on the chart no longer appear, and the losses in AAC play add up.
Every starter is back from last year's Final Four team, meaning that the potential is there along with the experience. Johnell Davis again leads the team in scoring with 18.2 ppg, and center Vladislav Goldin (15.6) and Alijah Martin (13.3) also score in double figures. The trio combine for 18 rebounds per game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (7)Dayton+5, (1)Purdue+OT, (9)Michigan St.+14, (3)Illinois+OT, (8)Nebraska+12
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(8)Mississippi St.-9, @(3)Illinois-30, @(5)Wisconsin-8, @(8)Nebraska-6, @(1)Purdue-OT, @(9)Michigan St.-4, =(5)Wisconsin-9
- Other losses (4): Chicago St.-2, @Minnesota-OT, @Rutgers-3, Iowa-7
Overview: Northwestern jumped on everyone's radar when they played an early Big Ten game—December 1st!—and beat Purdue in overtime. They'd already beatend 7-seed Dayton and would beat Michigan State 88-74. But they also lost to Chicago State (#302 Kenpom) and fell to Illinois by 30 points. From there, though, the Wildcats have been pretty great, win or lose. Still inconsistent, they took Purdue to overtime again, then lost in overtime at Minnesota. They also beat Illinois in overtime. They tend to play just about everyone pretty close.
Boo Buie leads the team with 19.2 points on average, with four Wildcats scoring in double figures.
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Game Analysis: Given two teams who play solid offense and less-than-great defense, expect a fairly high score—mitigated by Northwestern's slow-paced play. Both teams shoot the ball very well but don't defend nearly as well. FAU probably has a decent rebounding edge. Look for the Owls to get to the free throw line more often.
Northwestern is great from behind the 3-point line, #4 in the nation in percentage at 39.4%. But they don't shoot it all that often—only when they get a good shot, after using up most of the clock. They're relatively poor at 2-pointer, while FAU excels there (56%). Northwestern's 3-point defense is bad enough that FAU should be able to take advantage of it, too.
Almost all of FAU's Final Four team is back, but so is most of Northwestern's team from last year. The Wildcats tasted some success with an appearance in the Round of 32 and they want more. The Owls of course want to go back to the Final Four and win it all. Teams that win games in previous years tend to do so again—there are legion of repeat Final Four teams, and teams that finish runner-up two years in a row are surprisingly common. But only one team can advance here.
Another question is: have the Owls been sandbagging? After last year's Final Four appearance, have they found it boring to play against American Athletic opposition? Is that why they aren't as good of a team as last season? And if so, are we going to see the "real" FAU emerge during the tournament? I'd like to think that's the case, but it's hard to believe they can just turn it back on, after keeping their true quality such a well-kept secret...
Vegas Line:
Florida Atlantic by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Florida Atlantic by 0.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Florida Atlantic: 50.5%
Northwestern: 49.5%
The sportsbooks have more confidence in Florida Atlantic than my power ratings do, and we give the Owls just a sliver of a percentage more than the Wildcats. If we look at just the 2nd half of the season Northwestern wins by 6 points. Recent play, too, favors the Wildcats, even though they lost 3 of their last 4 games.
Bottom line: This is a serious game because I think the winner has a great shot at upsetting UConn in the Round of 32. The echoes of last year favor Florida Atlantic, but they seem to have settled into a rut. I guess I'm picking the minor upset and going with Northwestern, but I'm going to sit on this one for a while before making it official. Check back to see if I've changed my mind.
Final prediction: Northwestern 76, Florida Atlantic 70
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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