All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Washington State Cougars
Seed: 7
Record: 24-9
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Drake Bulldogs
Seed: 10
Record: 28-6
Conference: Missouri Valley
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 10:05pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Omaha, NE
Channel: truTV
A pretty even matchup in Omaha, right next door to Drake but way across the mountains from Washington State.
Washington St. Drake
Power Ratings
Strength: #41 Strength: #52
Median: #47 Median: #39
Markov: #35 Markov: #49
4-year: #40 4-year: #60
Pomeroy: #42 Pomeroy: #51
Offense: #64 Offense: #38
Defense: #27 Defense: #75
BPI: #42 BPI: #52
LRMC: #32 LRMC: #41
Other Measures:
SOS: #79 SOS: #110
Tempo (Offense): #261 Tempo (Offense): #198
Consistency: #209 Consistency: #352
Str + Reliability: #43 Str + Reliability: #90
Str + Potential: #40 Str + Potential: #29
2nd half season: #21 2nd half season: #41
Last 6: #71 Last 6: #66
Injury Mod Rank: #40 Injury Mod Rank: #55
Tourney 4-year: #46 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #32
As expected of the 7-seed, Washington State has about a 10-rung advantage in all the power ratings, from Strength to Kenpom to BPI to LRMC, where they both rank their best, #32 and #41. One rating where the Bulldogs win is Median Strength, which compares the teams' median average performance. If both teams play their typical game, Drake wins. But given Drake's very low Consistency, it's not likely we see a typical Drake game.
The Cougars also have a slight edge on both sides of the court, with their offense outranking Drake's defense by 11 spots, and their defensive play having the same advantage over Drake's offense. Again, a clear edge but not impossible to overcome. And given Drake's inconsistency, they could lose by a lot or pull off the upset. They have more potential than Washington State if both play their best.
Washington State has played very well in the 2nd half of the season but not very well lately. Neither team has done well lately so we'll have to look at the charts to see what is up with that. Washington State hasn't been in the tournament since 2008 when they made the Sweet Sixteen. Drake has made the tournament two of the last three year, losing in the first round in 2023 and 2021.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (16)Grambling St.+18, (10)Boise St.+5, (2)Arizona+3, (10)Colorado+9, @(11)Oregon+6, @(2)Arizona+3
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(8)Mississippi St.-12, @(10)Colorado-7, (11)Oregon-5, =(10)Colorado-6
- Other losses (5): =Santa Clara-8, @Utah-22, @California-OT, @Arizona St.-12, Washington-6
Overview: Washington State won a lot of games early on against really easy competition, losing to 8-seed Mississippi State in Connecticut and to Santa Clara in Phoenix, but they did beat 10-seed Boise State before the Pac-12 season began. The Cougars started 1-3 in conference play but they beat Arizona 73-70 (game 11). Losing to Cal in overtime deflated their high temporarily, but after that, from game 20 to game 27, they were unstoppable. From the January 24 win over Utah (79-57) to their 2nd win over Arizona (this time in Tempe) the Cougars were one of the nation's top teams.
But then they fell to Arizona State, and twice more (to Washington and then Colorado in the Pac-12 tournament), and the shine had faded a bit. What happened over the last six games? They need to find an answer.
Washington State is led by 6-9 F Isaac Jones in both scoring (15.4ppg) and rebounding (7.4).
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =(14)Oakland+8, =(14)Akron+20, =(10)Nevada+19, (16)Grambling St.+12
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(12)UAB-OT
- Other losses (5): =Stephen F. Austin-24, @Belmont-22, @Missouri St.-OT, @Indiana St.-8, @Northern Iowa-14
Overview: Drake played three games to their exact average to start the season, but game four was a mess, a 92-68 loss to Stephen F. Austin in the Cayman Islands, a loss that got worse with time as the Lumberjacks proved to be a very mediocre team. Just prior to that game Drake had defeated 14-seed Oakland, and right after they beat 14-seed Akron 79-59. That set a pattern of inconsistency that would continue through the season.
But they became a good, inconsistent team rather than a bad one. They beat 10-seed Nevada in Henderson, NV, and 16-seed Grambling 5 days later, giving them four wins over tournament teams. They almost got another at UAB. And they beat Indiana State two out of three, and the Sycamores would have been in if not for the bubble busters. Over their last four games, which includes the Missouri Valley tournament, Drake seems to have become much more consistent. We'll see if it lasts.
Four Drake players score in double figures but the standout is Tucker DeVries, who leads with 21.8 ppg while shooting 36.4% behind the arc.
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Game Analysis: Drake shoots the ball very well but doesn't rebound well—on offense. On defense they're #1 in the nation in rebounding. Washington State defends well but doesn't create turnovers; Drake doesn't turn the ball over on offense much at all. Similarly, Drake rarely blocks shots, but that's not an issue for Washington State's offense. In many ways these teams play the game that both want to play.
So we'll probably see a moderate-paced game, where the Cougars take mostly 2-point shots (which is their strength and Drake's weakness) and Drake takes a mix of 2's and 3's and free throws (where they shoot 76%).
I think the familiarity of being in the tournament last year and 2021 will help the Bulldogs a lot. Several key players returned from last year's squad including DeVries, and they even have a player left from the 2021 tournament team. Playing close to home can't hurt either—Des Moines, Iowa is roughly 2 hours away by car, while Pullman, Washington is closer to 24 hours. I would wager there are more Drake fans driving than Cougar fans flying to Omaha.
Vegas Line:
Drake by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Wash St. by 1.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Wash St.: 54.1%
Drake: 45.9%
Interestingly Drake is the favorite despite all the power ratings (which Vegas and sportsbooks base their lines on) favoring Washington State. Could it be their recent lackluster play? Or is Vegas giving Drake effective home court advantage? If we refigure for that, Drake becomes about a 1 point favorite. You don't see many lines at 1 point these days, it's always on the half point, so that would be the equivalent. Drake's odds to win also jump from 46% to over 53% when at home.
Bottom line: Drake has a lot going for it here: playing close to home, NCAA tournament experience, Washington State looking subpar lately, and now even the sportsbooks have made them the favorite (which could be good or bad as these lines cause reactions from both teams). I think the main thing is recent tournament experience: Drake is due for a tournament win in its third try in the 2020's.
Final prediction: Drake 73, Washington State 67
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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