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Texas Longhorns
Seed: 7
Record: 20-12
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Colorado State Rams
Seed: 10
Record: 25-10
Conference: Mountain West
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 6:50pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Charlotte, NC
Channel: TNT
This game just got a whole lot closer!
Texas Colorado St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #25 Strength: #32
Median: #31 Median: #45
Markov: #41 Markov: #29
4-year: #18 4-year: #52
Pomeroy: #27 Pomeroy: #30
Offense: #19 Offense: #40
Defense: #61 Defense: #30
BPI: #22 BPI: #63
LRMC: #38 LRMC: #36
Other Measures:
SOS: #27 SOS: #80
Tempo (Offense): #110 Tempo (Offense): #111
Consistency: #162 Consistency: #92
Str + Reliability: #21 Str + Reliability: #23
Str + Potential: #35 Str + Potential: #57
2nd half season: #20 2nd half season: #53
Last 6: #33 Last 6: #46 (70)
Injury Mod Rank: #20 Injury Mod Rank: #32
Tourney 4-year: #12 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #45
Before Colorado State's big win over Virginia, the numbers favored Texas a lot more. The Longhorns had a more comfortable margin in Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI. The LRMC already favored Colorado State and doesn't update after Selection Sunday. The Rams' 25-point win over Virginia improved their Strength by 8, KenPom rank by 8, and BPI by 7. But what is up with the BPI? Again I keep having to ask this question, the BPI has gone wonky this year. Mountain West teams are taking a huge hit. I wondered if it were SOS, but maybe there's a "conference power factor" or something that is downgrading teams.
The Markov chain models (Markov, and LRMC) like the Rams a lot, and don't like Texas as much. Those are the only ratings where Colorado State is ahead. But it's very close now everywhere. Colorado State's SOS isn't that much worse than Texas', the teams play the same offensive tempo, and both are fairly consistent. But it seems that Texas was getting better after the new year while Colorado State was stagnating. Both teams have poor recent ratings, but Colorado State really helped theirs with the Virginia win, going from #70 to #46, still not the best, but a big win can put a team in a winning mood.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): (3)Baylor+2, @(9)TCU+11, @(6)Texas Tech+12
- Losses to tournament teams (9): =(1)Connecticut-10, @(2)Marquette-21, (6)Texas Tech-11, @(6)BYU-12, (1)Houston-OT, (2)Iowa St.-5, @(1)Houston-21, @(4)Kansas-19, @(3)Baylor-8
- Other losses (3): @West Virginia-3, UCF-6, =Kansas St.-4
Overview: Thanks to a majority cupcake pre-conference schedule, Texas was 11-2 with losses only to 1-seed UConn and 2-seed Marquette when the Big Twelve season started. Since then they're 9-10. They beat 3-seed Baylor, 6-seed Texas Tech, and 9-seed TCU, and lost to everyone else of import, plus West Virginia, UCF, and Kansas State who didn't make the cut. Not the greatest résumé in 7-seed history.
Texas's best games were when they were beating up on the little guy, like their 72-37 win over UNC Greensboro (game 12); the 75-60 road win at Oklahoma (game 19); 94-58 over WVU (24). They've struggled against better competition, just like their early season was a cupcake feast; the easy wins stopped when the Big Twelve season started.
Texas is led by Oral Roberts transfer Max Abmas, a 5th year senior who led the nation in scoring in 2021. This year he averages 17.1 points, one of four Longhorns in double figures.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(3)Creighton+21, (10)Colorado+5, (11)New Mexico+8, (5)San Diego St.+8, (10)Boise St.+13, (8)Utah St.+20, =(10)Nevada+7, =(10)Virginia+25
- Losses to tournament teams (8): (5)Saint Mary's-3, @(8)Utah St.-5, @(10)Boise St.-7, @(10)Nevada-13, @(5)San Diego St.-16, @(11)New Mexico-2, (10)Nevada-3, =(11)New Mexico-13
- Other losses (2): @Wyoming-OT, @UNLV-6
Overview: Colorado State had seven wins over tournament teams and yet they had to play-in. Tell me again how the Committee didn't discriminate against the Mountain West teams? Though it's true, good wins outside the conference were few and far between, but didn't beating 3-seed Creighton 69-48 in Kansas City mean anything? Or 10-seed Colorado? And "major" teams Boston College and Washington on neutral courts?
The Rams had to play in and they turned out their best performance since the Creighton game, beating Virginia 67-42. Before that they'd fallen into a rut of mediocrity, does this win mean they're for real? Four Rams score in double figures led by Isaiah Stevens with 16.2; he also dishes out 6.9 assists per game.
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Game Analysis: Texas can go 9-10 in conference, with zero quality wins outside its conference, and get a 7-seed. Meanwhile Colorado State beats Creighton and Colorado, and they're a play-in team...because conference wins don't count? I realize the Big Twelve is by far the best conference, but this should be an 8 vs. 9-seed.
And it's that close. Especially after Colorado State's showing against Virginia. Will we see them play like that against Texas? Almost certainly not; they have two, maybe three spikes like that on their chart, otherwise they're pretty dull. If they beat Texas it's probably a close game, not 25 points, and vice versa.
Texas shoots the 3-pointer very well and they should, they have Max Abmas. Since his scoring title in 2021 he's attracted more attention and his 43% that year has declined to 37% this year (also, being in the Big 12 instead of the Summit). Colorado State has advantages when on offense, too, like fantastic 2-point shooting. Both defenses like to hold their opponent for a long time, while the offensive tempos are pretty fast.
I used to tout the "play-in team" effect until I realized it was really just an "11-seed effect" (non-play-in 11-seeds do just as well); now, with 10-seed play-in teams, is there any reason to think that a team that won its play-in game is more dangerous for having done so? I guess maybe we'll find out.
Vegas Line:
Texas by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Texas by 0.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Texas: 51.9%
Colorado St.: 48.1%
I'm a bit surprised the line didn't move to CSU after their blowout win, and in fact the line is wider for Texas than the Strength power rating suggest. By the numbers it's a tossum, with Texas having about a 4% edge. That's more like an 8- vs. 9-seed game, where 9-seeds win 51.3%. Historically a 7-seed wins 61% of the time.
Bottom line: Texas has only defeated two teams as good as Colorado State all year. The Rams have only 4 such wins, but after the big Virginia win it's hard not to take them, even if a repeat of that performance shouldn't be considered on the table. They'll have to fight for this one.
Final prediction: Colorado State 77, Texas 71
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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