All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Florida Gators
Seed: 7
Record: 24-11
Conference: SEC
vs.
Colorado Buffaloes
Seed: 10
Record: 25-10
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 4:30pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
Both Colorado teams emerged from the 10-seed play-in brackets; this one faces Florida.
Florida Colorado
Power Ratings
Strength: #31 Strength: #23
Median: #33 Median: #23
Markov: #18 Markov: #20
4-year: #34 4-year: #27
Pomeroy: #29 Pomeroy: #24
Offense: #14 Offense: #27
Defense: #83 Defense: #35
BPI: #25 BPI: #45
LRMC: #23 LRMC: #22
Other Measures:
SOS: #36 SOS: #58
Tempo (Offense): #28 Tempo (Offense): #97
Consistency: #210 Consistency: #238
Str + Reliability: #33 Str + Reliability: #28
Str + Potential: #36 Str + Potential: #26
2nd half season: #24 2nd half season: #16
Last 6: #28 Last 6: #21
Injury Mod Rank: #39 Injury Mod Rank: #25
Tourney 4-year: #36 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #48
Florida is a solid but unspectacular 7-seed, ranking around #30 in general but with Markov and LRMC giving them a boost. The Gators are very strong on offense but their defensive play is an issue for having a deep run. Another issue there is their Injury Rank of #39, reflecting their games without 7-1 backup center Micah Handlogten.
Colorado won a play-in game over Boise State to get here and they probably should have just been in the field; their Strength is #23, Pomeroy is now #24, and LRMC was #22 on Selection Sunday. BPI once again has the outlier. Going to have to check how the BPI did with these outlier rankings; it's the only one with Colorado ranked lower, and significantly so. Either BPI is onto something or it's gone off the rails.
The teams are roughly similar in SOS, offensive tempo, and consistency. The Reliability and Potential projections show a range for Florida that is outside the Round of 32, while Colorado is inside in both measures. The Buffs also rank better in both recent play measures; both teams improved in the 2nd half of the season but that allowed the Buffs to stay in front.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (16)Grambling St.+39, (8)Mississippi St.+9, @(3)Kentucky+OT, (4)Auburn+16, (4)Alabama+18, =(4)Alabama+14, =(9)Texas A&M+5
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(10)Virginia-3, =(3)Baylor-4, (3)Kentucky-2, @(2)Tennessee-19, @(9)Texas A&M-1, @(4)Alabama-OT, @(6)South Carolina-6, =(4)Auburn-19
- Other losses (3): @Wake Forest-11, @Mississippi-18, @Vanderbilt-1
Overview: Florida survived some rough sledding early, including losses to 10-seed Virginia, 3-seed Baylor, and Wake Forest—all close games—but made it to the SEC season at 10-3, where they promptly lost 3 of their first 4 conference games. At 11-6 the Gators really didn't look too promising. But they beat 8-seed Mississippi State, beat Georgia in overtime, and beat Kentucky in OT on the road. Wins over 4-seed Auburn and two over 4-seed Alabama followed. Their losses over the 13-5 run were understandable—at Texas A&M by 1 point, at Alabama in overtime, at South Carolina by 6—until they lost to Vanderbilt, but there's always one bad loss. They came back from 18 points down to beat Texas A&M in the SEC tournament before losing to Auburn in the final, where Micah Handlogten got injured.
Four Gators average in double figures including Walter Clayton Jr with 17.1ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (16)Grambling St.+32, (7)Washington St.+7, (11)Oregon+16, @(11)Oregon+4, =(7)Washington St.+6, =(10)Boise St.+7
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(10)Colorado St.-5, @(2)Arizona-47, @(7)Washington St.-9, (2)Arizona-20, =(11)Oregon-7
- Other losses (5): =Florida St.-OT, @Arizona St.-3, @California-4, @Utah-5, @UCLA-4
Overview: Colorado played a pretty brief and easy non-conference schedule, losing to both FSU (77-71 in OT) in Dayton and 10-seed Colorado State in Ft. Collins. They scheduled Miami and beat them 90-63 in New York, but that win didn't age well. At the start of the Pac-12 season they lost bad three times, to Arizona, ASU, and Cal. They won four, then lost 4 of 5, then won 8 straight before losing to Oregon in the Pac-12 tournament final. They didn't beat any really good teams because they didn't beat Arizona, the only team over a 7-seed that they played. But that's still quite a run at the end, and beating Boise State is a solid win.
The Buffs have five players who average in double figures, led by KJ Simpson's 19.6 ppg; he adds 5.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists.
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Game Analysis: How much is Florida hurt by not having their backup Center? It seems like he's more integral than his stats (5.3 points, 6.9 boards) would suggest. The school flew him to Indianapolis to see them play, and hopefully be an inspirational boost for them. Maybe him being out is a plus, if he inspires them to victory?
In terms of matching up, Colorado shoots the ball very well (#8 on 3-pointers at 39%, #20 Effective FG%) while Florida doesn't defend all that well. Strangely Colorado doesn't shoot a lot of threes, and neither does Florida, but that's ok because the Gators don't shoot well—they just rebound everything in sight. Colorado is a good rebounding team, too, so they might be able to thwart Florida's plans there.
Colorado has a bit of a disadvantage in terms of turnaround time before the game, as they went pretty late on Wednesday. It hasn't seemed to hurt play-in teams overall before.
Vegas Line:
Florida by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Colorado by 1.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Florida: 54.9%
Colorado: 45.1%
Spread isn't official yet but it's what I'm seeing right now. My power rating has Colorado by a hair instead.
Bottom line: I went back and forth on Florida and Colorado but the Buffs' 9-1 run at the end was the decider. Either team would make a good Sweet Sixteen prospect though.
Final prediction: Colorado 81, Florida 80
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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