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Dayton Flyers
Seed: 7
Record: 24-7
Conference: Atlantic 10
vs.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Seed: 10
Record: 26-7
Conference: Mountain West
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 4:30 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Salt Lake City, UT
Channel: TBS
Dayton travels West across two time zones and nearly 2,000 miles to get to Salt Lake City, while Nevada goes East one time zone and 500 miles. What's the effect?
Dayton Nevada
Power Ratings
Strength: #43 Strength: #42
Median: #61 Median: #32
Markov: #42 Markov: #38
4-year: #48 4-year: #49
Pomeroy: #32 Pomeroy: #36
Offense: #18 Offense: #40
Defense: #87 Defense: #36
BPI: #32 BPI: #54
LRMC: #42 LRMC: #47
Other Measures:
SOS: #85 SOS: #88
Tempo (Offense): #299 Tempo (Offense): #246
Consistency: #22 Consistency: #185
Str + Reliability: #19 Str + Reliability: #40
Str + Potential: #67 Str + Potential: #47
2nd half season: #50 2nd half season: #43
Last 6: #81 Last 6: #34
Injury Mod Rank: #45 Injury Mod Rank: #42
Tourney 4-year: #47 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #39
These are two very evenly matched teams. We aren't kidding when we say it could come down to the location of the game, but more on that later. In Strength, Nevada is one rung ahead of the Flyers, yet the Median game rating heavily favors the Wolf Pack. It's neck and neck in the Markov Chain method, while Pomeroy and the LRMC favor Dayton very slightly. The BPI, however, takes the Flyers by a mile, #32 to #54! Why? I have no idea. That's really interesting. I'm used to seeing all these power ratings side by side and this is a new one, but every now and then there's a curve.
Both teams played a very similar Strength of Schedule, and both play a similar chill tempo on offense. Now here's the reason why Nevada's Median score is so good: it filters out their inconsistency, thereby discounting their below-par performances. Dayton doesn't have those, really, at #22 in Consistency. Or most likely, they tend to have slightly above-par outliers so their Median score is worse. We'll see it in the charts below, along with why Dayton's recent play looks a bit sketchy.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (16)Grambling St.+30, (14)Oakland+24, (16)Longwood+9, @(11)Duquesne+10, (11)Duquesne+16
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(9)Northwestern-5, =(1)Houston-14, =(11)Duquesne-8
- Other losses (4): @Richmond-5, @VCU-2, @George Mason-4, @Loyola Chicago-5
Overview: Dayton hasn't beaten a tournament team that isn't a double-digit seed. But they played pretty well against 1-seed Houston in South Carolina; they were never really in it but it didn't get ugly. From the chart we can easily see why Dayton's Median Strength ranking is so low: the median essentially "shaves" off those higher points from the chart, and with this kind of distribution the median average is going to be lower than the mean average.
Dayton looked set to run through the Atlantic 10 but the losses became more frequent and they ended in third place, exiting in the first round of the A10 tournament to eventual champ Duquesne. This is reflected in their "2nd half of season" and "Last 6 games" rating taking a notable dip. But they sure are consistent; even when losing, they don't lose bad. Naismith Trophy semi-finalist DaRon Holmes leads the team in points (20.4) and rebounds (8.4).
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(9)TCU+13, (10)Colorado St.+13, @(8)Utah St.+14, (5)San Diego St.+OT, @(10)Colorado St.+3, @(10)Boise St.+10
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(10)Drake-19, (10)Boise St.-8, @(5)San Diego St.-12, @(11)New Mexico-34, (11)New Mexico-1, =(10)Colorado St.-7
- Other losses (1): @Wyoming-5
Overview: Nevada has a much more up and down, rolling-hills type of chart, best exemplified by games 20-23: a 77-64 win over 10-seed Colorado State; an 89-55 loss to 11-seed New Mexico; followed by a 30-point win over San Jose State and a 14-point road win at 8-seed Utah State. Despite a 15-1 start the Wolf Pack weren't bracketology favorites until they went on a 7-game win streak to end the regular season, meaning they could lose in the MWC tournament and still get an at-large bid.
Guard Jarod Lucas leads the team with 17.8 points per game. Coach Steve Alford said the team was fighting a "flu bug" before their loss in the MWC tournament, and half a dozen players had it. That may have contributed to their early exit, and the team should be healthy for the NCAA tournament.
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Game Analysis: The Mountain West kind of got screwed in the seedings; the Committee didn't want to face the fact that a non-Major conference had six teams that needed to be in, so they downgraded a lot of them. It's true their non-conference schedules weren't that tough, but the metrics prove the teams are good and it was simple favoritism that kept teams not called San Diego State lower than they should be.
That said, this is a very tough 10-seed vs. 7-seed matchup, very even and too close to call. Case in point: Nevada's offense leans heavily on free throws for points; but Dayton's defense hardly fouls. Something has to give! Both teams have the edge on the opposing defense when they have the ball, with Dayton's offense being better and their defensive play being a bit worse than Nevada's.
Three point shooting will be huge in the game; if Dayton makes their threes they will win. If Nevada can force them into a rough night shooting then the Wolf Pack can win.
Now let's look at the location of the game. Seems to favor Nevada, right? Just one state away compared to, what, 10 states from Ohio to Utah? (ok more like six).
But according to some research, traveling to the east is tougher on teams than going west, due to time zone effects. Teams that travel to the west actually do a bit better, while east-traveling teams have a really rough time. So it looks like things might be harder on Nevada than Dayton. Both teams are flying I presume but the time zone direction is the key (the best situation is not having to leave your time zone).
Vegas Line:
Nevada by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Nevada by 0.07
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Dayton: 46.8%
Nevada: 53.2%
The tiniest edge—0.07 points—translates into a fairly good sized odds advantage due to how both teams performances are distributed.
Bottom line: Nevada won't have its usual steady flow of free throw attempts, and DaRon Holmes will be a tough assignment for the Wolf Pack. But this would be a very good upset pick to make if your bracket rewards them, as it's basically a 50/50 game (which is why I have it in overtime). Check back to see if I've changed my mind before Thursday.
Final prediction: Dayton 79, Nevada 78 OT
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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