All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Seed: 6
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
NC State Wolfpack
Seed: 11
Record: 22-14
Conference: ACC
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 9:40pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Channel: CBS
Texas Tech is up and down from game to game lately. Meanwhile NC State is on a super-high. Will they come down? Which two teams will we see in Pittsburgh?
Texas Tech NC State
Power Ratings
Strength: #23 Strength: #61
Median: #24 Median: #68
Markov: #29 Markov: #46
4-year: #23 4-year: #63
Pomeroy: #24 Pomeroy: #58
Offense: #23 Offense: #47
Defense: #45 Defense: #89
BPI: #23 BPI: #57
LRMC: #34 LRMC: #50
Other Measures:
SOS: #18 SOS: #57
Tempo (Offense): #278 Tempo (Offense): #102
Consistency: #236 Consistency: #18
Str + Reliability: #26 Str + Reliability: #36
Str + Potential: #24 Str + Potential: #86
2nd half season: #25 2nd half season: #55
Last 6: #26 Last 6: #24
Injury Mod Rank: #25 Injury Mod Rank: #61
Tourney 4-year: #21 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #42
At first glance it's all Texas Tech, which makes sense as NC State needed a miracle run to even get close to a bid, and had to win the ACC to get in. The Red Raiders are superior in Strength (and all the sub-ratings), KenPom (and better in both Offense and Defense), and well ahead in BPI and LRMC.
So where is the hope for NC State's run to continue? Not in their Consistency rating of #18, which is great if you want to play at your average level. Texas Tech is somewhat inconsistent but not overly so. They haven't played markedly different in the 2nd half of the season. But they there's the Wolfpack's recent run, which bumps their temporary Strength to #24, just a bit ahead of where Texas Tech is at right now. That's hope!
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @(7)Texas+11, (6)BYU+7, (4)Kansas+29, (9)TCU+1, (3)Baylor+10, =(6)BYU+14
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(1)Houston-23, @(9)TCU-7, @(3)Baylor-6, @(2)Iowa St.-8, (7)Texas-12, =(1)Houston-23
- Other losses (4): =Villanova-16, @Butler-OT, Cincinnati-3, @UCF-14
Overview: Texas Tech has a lot of great games and, more recently, quite a few duds. The season started rather inauspiciously with fairly tepid wins over terrible opponents (73-46 over TAMU Commerce? 56-42 over SJSU? 73-64 over Corpus Christi?) and then an awful 85-69 loss to Villanova. The 16-point win over Michigan (game 6) didn't age the right way. But eventually the Raiders hit their stride and won 9 in a row, finally beating a top 100 foe in Big Twelve play. Of course in the Big Twelve the losses add up, too, but there were good wins like the 79-50 drubbing of Kansas. The last seven games are pretty odd. Two bad losses (UCF, and Texas at home), followed by four very solid wins (at WVU and OK State by 11 and 17, then Baylor and BYU), before an 82-59 loss to Houston. Four great games and three awful ones. Which team will NC State see in the first round?
Texas Tech has four starters in double figures led by Pop Isaacs' 15.9 ppg. One of them is Darrion Williams, who missed the last game along with 7-foot center Warren Washington who has been battling injury issues for a while. Williams and Washington are the team's leading rebounders, combining for 15 per game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (10)Virginia+16, @(6)Clemson+1, =(4)Duke+5, =(10)Virginia+OT, =(1)North Carolina+8
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(6)BYU-9, =(2)Tennessee-9, (1)North Carolina-13, @(10)Virginia-OT, @(1)North Carolina-9, (4)Duke-15
- Other losses (8): @Mississippi-20, Virginia Tech-6, @Syracuse-12, Pittsburgh-3, @Wake Forest-4, Syracuse-4, @Florida St.-7, @Pittsburgh-8
Overview: NC State was a good team all year—good, not great, and not really threatening to most teams. They played a really easy non-conference schedule and lost to all the decent teams they faced (BYU, Ole Miss, Tennessee). They picked up early ACC wins over B.C. and Virginia, though, so in conference play they looked like a potential thorn. For the most part they continued to lose to good teams, culminating in a 4-game skid at the end that destroyed any hope they had of an at-large bid. So instead, they suddenly became a great team and beat Louisville, Syracuse, 4-seed Duke, 10-seed Virginia, and 1-seed North Carolina in a five day span. It's not quite like UConn of 2009 (who won 5 straight to win the Big East, beating a 6-seed, 1-seed, 3-seed, and 4-seed along the way) but it's pretty close. So while we don't expect a national title out of the Wolfpack, history suggests there could be more good things to come.
DJ Horne leads four starters in double figures for the 'Pack.
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Game Analysis: The question we're faced with answering is, which teams show up? Do we get the Texas Tech that won 4 straight in fine fashion? Or the one that got murdered in the last game, and in the two earlier games? And for NC State, do we get the team on the 5-game win streak, or the one that lost 4 in a row just prior?
What we can safely say is that when NC State has the ball it's a very even game. They have KenPom's #47 offense and the Raiders have to #45 defense. Neither teams seems to have any advantage here, for example, NC State protects the ball very well but Texas Tech doesn't go for many steals anyway. Neither team tries to play an extreme tempo.
The other side should be more of a divergence. Texas Tech on offense shoots the ball very well while NC State struggles to defend. And it's not just coming from one player, the Raiders have scorers covering the floor at any time. This is the puzzle NC State has to solve.
Tech also has some injury issues they are dealing with that could affect the game, as noted before.
Vegas Line:
Texas Tech by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
Texas Tech by 4.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Texas Tech: 62.5%
NC State: 37.5%
Here the sportsbooks and our Strength power rating are in near exact agreement: Texas Tech by well, somewhere between 4 and 5. We give the Red Raiders a 5 in 8 chance to win the game.
It changes if you take a smaller sample of just the last six games, and of course it tilts toward the Wolf Pack. It makes the game a 50/50 proposition, with the average result a 0.21 point win for NC State, whatever that means!
Bottom line: The recent play stats aren't always predictive of future game play. In one game, anything can happen. But I like picking 11-seeds to beat 6-seeds so it's enough for me. NC State is on a roll that continues.
Final prediction: NC State 93, Texas Tech 91 2OT
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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