All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
South Carolina Gamecocks
Seed: 6
Record: 26-7
Conference: SEC
vs.
Oregon Ducks
Seed: 11
Record: 23-11
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 4:00 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Channel: TNT
Bracket-buster Oregon meets Strength/Success confounding South Carolina.
South Carolina Oregon
Power Ratings
Strength: #60 Strength: #54
Median: #43 Median: #53
Markov: #33 Markov: #51
4-year: #91 4-year: #51
Pomeroy: #49 Pomeroy: #55
Offense: #46 Offense: #50
Defense: #54 Defense: #70
BPI: #56 BPI: #61
LRMC: #55 LRMC: #52
Other Measures:
SOS: #81 SOS: #35
Tempo (Offense): #221 Tempo (Offense): #240
Consistency: #291 Consistency: #43
Str + Reliability: #74 Str + Reliability: #32
Str + Potential: #54 Str + Potential: #78
2nd half season: #48 2nd half season: #52
Last 6: #52 Last 6: #37
Injury Mod Rank: #60 Injury Mod Rank: #51
Tourney 4-year: #41 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #43
South Carolina has lost very few games for a team that isn't all that great. It's not from an easy schedule, as theirs ranks well within the top 100. It might have to do with their low Consistency rating, but that's just as likely to make a team have a worse record than their Strength would indicate. In Kenpom South Carolina ranks #2 in "luck" which is basically saying: you got better results than you should have. Congratulations.
Oregon outranks South Carolina in Strength and LRMC, though SC has a better Median game rating, a much better Markov chain ranking, as well as Pomeroy and BPI. The teams have roughly similar Offense ratings while the Gamecocks are a bit better on D. Note that South Carolina is overachieving a bit compared to their recent history, as their 4-year Strength composite is just #91. The team was 11-21 in 2023.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @(12)Grand Canyon+7, (8)Mississippi St.+6, (3)Kentucky+17, @(2)Tennessee+4, @(9)Texas A&M+2, (7)Florida+6, @(8)Mississippi St.+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(6)Clemson-5, @(4)Alabama-27, @(4)Auburn-40, (2)Tennessee-7, =(4)Auburn-31
- Other losses (2): Georgia-5, LSU-1
Overview: For a mediocre, "lucky" team South Carolina has some really good wins. Kentucky by 17? At Tennessee? That can't all be luck. They also lost at home to both Georgia and LSU, and lost to Auburn twice by a total of 71 points. Ouch. In those games Auburn hit a combined 21 of 39 3-pointers (54%). Their 2-point defense is a lot better. On offense the Gamecocks don't shoot well, they get shots blocked too often (#358 in the country), but still manage to be relatively efficient. How? Avoiding turnovers, and getting rebounds. Meechie Johnson leads the team at 13.8ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): @(7)Washington St.+5, =(2)Arizona+8, =(10)Colorado+7
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(4)Alabama-8, @(10)Colorado-16, (2)Arizona-9, (7)Washington St.-6, @(2)Arizona-20, (10)Colorado-4
- Other losses (5): =Santa Clara-6, =Syracuse-20, @Utah-3, @UCLA-8, @California-5
Overview: Oregon had a fairly successful and uneventful pre-conference season with only losses to Alabama and Syracuse of note. In the Pac-12 they raced to a 5-0 start but hit some bad turbulence and ended 12-8, needing a very strong tournament run to get to the NCAA. They got it, largely because of N'Faly Dante's heroics. He went 25 of 30 from the floor during the tournament, including a 12 for 12 performance against Colorado to seal the bid. Dante missed the first half of the season due to knee surgery but now leads the team with 16.2 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, shooting an ungodly 70.2%.
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Game Analysis: Two years ago Providence was a 4-seed ranked #50 in Pomeroy, a fairly good analogue to South Carolina this year. The Friars were #1 in Luck. They beat the 13-seed, then got a 12-seed due to an upset, then lost to eventual National Champ Kansas. So it's hard to learn anything from that, they had the easiest games they could, then the hardest. No questions were answered.
This year's South Carolina is like Providence two years ago. But they have a much tougher test in Oregon, a team with roughly similar power rating metrics. And a rising star in Dante, who can't seem to miss from underneath. When he returned he was 3 of 8 against Cal and since then he's been over .500 every single outing, usually well over.
Vegas Line:
South Carolina by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Oregon by 0.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
South Carolina: 51.1%
Oregon: 48.9%
Ah, here is it, the dreaded discrepancy between expected margin and more likely winner. South Carolina wins 51% of the game comparisons since they have enough upside outliers to win more contests, but when Oregon wins they win a bit bigger and on average, they win by almost a point. Meanwhile Vegas considers the Gamecocks the favorite by 1.5 points.
This is a good upset pick to make, and I'm sure it will be popular; it's not often that the metric put a 6 vs. 11 game this close. I've noted that since 2011 the 11-seed wins over 50% vs. a 6-seed, and that's without requiring any further digging. Here you have what is basically a toss-up.
Bottom line: I like this pick, not just for a satisfying upset pick, but also because N'Faly Dante is looking unstoppable underneath. The actual game outcome depends on which South Carolina shows up—the lucky or the unlucky. But Oregon might be figuring out what they have in Dante.
Final prediction: Oregon 68, South Carolina 67
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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