All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Clemson Tigers
Seed: 6
Record: 21-11
Conference: ACC
vs.
New Mexico Lobos
Seed: 11
Record: 26-9
Conference: Mountain West
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 3:10pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Memphis, TN
Channel: truTV
Something tells me this is going to be a very popular upset pick.
Clemson New Mexico
Power Ratings
Strength: #32 Strength: #22
Median: #21 Median: #19
Markov: #24 Markov: #22
4-year: #38 4-year: #30
Pomeroy: #34 Pomeroy: #23
Offense: #27 Offense: #41
Defense: #67 Defense: #23
BPI: #29 BPI: #43
LRMC: #35 LRMC: #13
Other Measures:
SOS: #33 SOS: #84
Tempo (Offense): #156 Tempo (Offense): #12
Consistency: #251 Consistency: #270
Str + Reliability: #39 Str + Reliability: #24
Str + Potential: #32 Str + Potential: #19
2nd half season: #40 2nd half season: #17
Last 6: #70 Last 6: #14
Injury Mod Rank: #31 Injury Mod Rank: #21
Tourney 4-year: #35 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #57
Sometimes the power ratings go against the seeding, and this is one of those times. Everyone knows New Mexico was criminally underseeded for how good they are—just as they were ridiculously overseeded in 2010 (and 2013 to a lesser extent) as a 3-seed. That was in the RPI era, now we look at other ratings, right? The ratings tell us that New Mexico is probably better than Clemson. They are better in Strength #22 to #32, in Pomeroy #23 to #34, in the LRMC #29 to #43, and the BPI...wait, what's with the BPI? It's been giving some odd, out of step rankings lately. Not that I mind, it's good to see other opinions, but I'm not sure why they have Clemson ahead—or rather, why they dock New Mexico so much compared to the others.
And some of my rankings have Clemson in the top 25, like the Median Strength rating where they are #21, and the Markov Chain where they are #24. New Mexico is still higher in those, however. The discrepancy between New Mexico's ranking in the RPI and LRMC is very interesting, #43 to #13. But that's how they end up an 11-seed: whatever the BPI was smoking, so was the Committee.
It also looks like New Mexico is getting better while Clemson is slipping, from the 2nd Half of Season ranking, to the Last Six Games.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(12)UAB+1, (10)Boise St.+17, @(4)Alabama+8, (6)South Carolina+5, =(9)TCU+8, @(1)North Carolina+4
- Losses to tournament teams (4): (1)North Carolina-10, @(4)Duke-1, (10)Virginia-1, (11)N.C. State-1
- Other losses (7): @Memphis-2, @Miami FL-13, @Virginia Tech-15, Georgia Tech-OT, @Notre Dame-7, @Wake Forest-5, =Boston College-21
Overview: Clemson started 9-0 with wins over 12-seed UAB, 10-seed Boise State, 4-seed Alabama, almost-seeded Pitt, 6-seed South Carolina, and 9-seed TCU. In nine games! But they lost 7 of their next 12 games and their only other tourney-team win was when they beat 1-seed North Carolina 80-76 in Chapel Hill. In fact, that was their only win over a top 70 Pomeroy team other than Pitt in the calendar year 2024. They basically beat up on the bad ACC teams and lost to the good ones. Good thing they had that pre-conference schedule!
The Tigers are led on offense by center PJ Hall who scores 18.8 points per game and is 2nd with 6.7 rebounds.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (5)San Diego St.+18, (8)Utah St.+13, (10)Nevada+34, @(10)Nevada+1, (10)Colorado St.+2, =(10)Boise St.+10, =(10)Colorado St.+13, =(5)San Diego St.+7
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(5)Saint Mary's-14, @(10)Colorado St.-8, (10)Boise St.-8, @(5)San Diego St.-11, @(10)Boise St.-10, @(8)Utah St.-2
- Other losses (3): @UNLV-10, UNLV-3, Air Force-1
Overview: New Mexico beat a total of 8 tournament teams, but all of them were from the Mountain West which didn't sit well with the Committee. And they got three of the eight during their tournament. You'd think neutral-court wins would be a plus, but as an 11-seed this year? They wouldn't have gotten a bid without beating San Diego State in the finals. The problem was a 4-6 skid near the end of the season; even though they beat Nevada and Colorado State in that run, they also lost to Air Force at home. And their pre-conference slate? Well, they beat up on those teams which power ratings loved, but the Selection Committee doesn't care for that. And—let's be honest—they don't like having so many Mountain West teams in the tournament.
The Lobos are led by Jalen House (16.1ppg) one of four players in double figures.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: It used to be you could have a "secret" upset pick that was still "well known" among followers of power ratings but wasn't part of general discussion. But now with game odds everywhere, it's been quite a while since the players themselves talk about who the favorite is, and sometimes feel disrespected. No one wants to be an upset pick, and certainly if Vegas is against them that's a slap in the face. This game is a combination of both phenomenon, a 6-seed that is the actual underdog by the oddsmakers. How will Clemson respond to that? And will it make New Mexico overconfident?
The matchup on both sides of the court is pretty even per Pomeroy's ratings, particularly when Clemson has the ball (#27 vs. #23). When the Lobos have the ball it's #41 vs. #67. The Lobos don't shoot a lot of 3's and don't turn the ball over (especially in this game as Clemson is #344 in steals). New Mexico doesn't shoot all that well but they rebound. Clemson does shoot well, especially 2-pointers and really especially free throws (79%).
Vegas Line:
New Mexico by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
New Mexico by 1.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Clemson: 47.1%
New Mexico: 52.9%
Even the oddsmakers are in on this one, so can you really call it an upset pick? 11-seeds historically have a 38% chance to win, but as I keep saying (and finally saw "in print" today) 11-seeds are winning more than 50% since 2011 (the article cited 2014). Now, this year's 11-seeds are more like 12-seeds, since the play-in teams are 10-seeds. But the sentiment remains.
Bottom line: It's close to a 50/50 game between a 6-seed and an 11-seed, who wouldn't take that upset if your bracket rewards them? I just like taking 11-seeds, and New Mexico got a bad deal with the Committee. If they play like their last few games the Lobos will win by almost 20 points, but I think things will revert to the mean and it will be really close, one way or another.
Final prediction: New Mexico 79, Clemson 77
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments