All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Wisconsin Badgers
Seed: 5
Record: 22-13
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
James Madison Dukes
Seed: 12
Record: 31-3
Conference: Sun Belt
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 9:40pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Channel: CBS
I have no preconceptions coming into this review. I like James Madison a lot and they're a winning team, but Wisconsin has a way of always getting the 2nd round and going farther in the tournament than you'd expect.
Wisconsin James Madison
Power Ratings
Strength: #21 Strength: #68
Median: #23 Median: #70
Markov: #15 Markov: #52
4-year: #25 4-year: #79
Pomeroy: #17 Pomeroy: #59
Offense: #13 Offense: #56
Defense: #47 Defense: #79
BPI: #19 BPI: #45
LRMC: #14 LRMC: #46
Other Measures:
SOS: #2 SOS: #269
Tempo (Offense): #337 Tempo (Offense): #69
Consistency: #250 Consistency: #87
Str + Reliability: #22 Str + Reliability: #58
Str + Potential: #20 Str + Potential: #80
2nd half season: #35 2nd half season: #59
Last 6: #8 Last 6: #78
Injury Mod Rank: #23 Injury Mod Rank: #68
Tourney 4-year: #25 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #59
Generally Wisconsin rates about 40-some spots better than James Madison, with the BPI and LRMC showing better results for the Dukes. Both the LRMC and Markov Chain rankings have the teams the highest, which makes sense as they're based on the same idea. The BPI has the teams the closest but still 26 place away.
There's a huge discrepancy in Strength of Schedule, which explains a lot about how Wisconsin has 11 losses and JM just 3. There's also a discrepancy in preferred tempo, with Wisconsin following their tradition of slower basketball, while the Dukes like to run. Perhaps surprisingly, James Madison is the much more consistent team. The team's Strength ratings are much closer for the 2nd half of the season, but over the last six games the Badgers have been fantastic.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(10)Virginia+24, (2)Marquette+11, @(9)Michigan St.+13, (8)Nebraska+16, (9)Northwestern+8, (9)Michigan St.+15, =(9)Northwestern+9, =(1)Purdue+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (7): (2)Tennessee-10, @(2)Arizona-25, @(8)Nebraska-OT, (1)Purdue-6, (3)Illinois-8, @(1)Purdue-8, =(3)Illinois-6
- Other losses (6): @Providence-13, @Penn St.-4, @Michigan-4, @Rutgers-22, @Iowa-OT, @Indiana-4
Overview: Wisconsin had a tough pre-conference schedule, including 2-seeds Tennessee, Arizona, and Marquette; they beat the Golden Eagles for the 3rd year in a year but lost the other two, by 10 at home to Tennessee and by 25 at 'Zona. They lost to Providence as well but beat 10-seed Virginia and SMU in a tournament. In the Big Ten they lost 2 of 3 to 1-seed Purdue and fell to 3-seed Illinois twice. They split games with 8-seed Nebraska and swept 9-seeds Michigan State and Northwestern.
The Badgers had a bad 4-game stretch mid-season and at one point had lost 7 out of 9 games, but they recovered in the Big Ten tournament, beating Maryland by 31, Northwestern by 9, and Purdue in overtime before falling to Illinois. Wisconsin is led by AJ Storr's 16.9 points per game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): @(9)Michigan St.+OT, (16)Howard+21, (14)Akron+14
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (3): @Southern Miss-10, Appalachian St.-4, @Appalachian St.-6
Overview: James Madison kicked off the season with a great overtime win at Michigan State; this was back when the Spartans were considered a top 5 team. The Dukes remained undefeated until game 15 when they lost to lowly Southern Miss 81-71, and two games later they fell to Appalachian State at home. The Mountaineers topped them again four games later and it looked like the Dukes might not be the best team in the Sun Belt. But they put together another long win streak—13 games and counting, the nation's longest—and won the Sun Belt tournament.
The Dukes have three starters in double figures and 8 who average more than 5 points per game, with Terrence Edwards the leader at 17.4ppg.
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Game Analysis: I guess the main question is: how much does winning beget winning? And losing beget losing? Sometimes winning teams expect to win and will themselves to win. Losing teams lose for a reason—they aren't winning teams. I think the former may apply to James Madison but the latter doesn't apply to Wisconsin; they had a tough-as-nails schedule (#2 in the nation) is why they lost so much. They're a workmanlike team and always seem to play their best come tournament time.
Wisconsin's methodical offense will clash with JMU's defense; the Badgers take their time while the Dukes want to force a turnover and get back to running. The Badgers protect the ball pretty well though, and shoot well too. The Dukes defend well, especially from the 3-point line, but Wisconsin's bread and butter is the 2-point shot. And free throws, where they hit 76%.
James Madison's offense wants to speed things up; they also suffer few turnovers, and they're very good at both 2- and 3-pointers. Interestingly Wisconsin's 3-point defense is pretty bad, but they rebound very well. For a tall team with a 7-0 center they block surprisingly few shots, too.
While it looks like JMU has a path to success—hit their threes on offense and hope the defense takes care of itself—those percentages are based on a very different set of opponents: Wisconsin's #2 SOS vs. JMU's #269 SOS. In terms of (opponent-adjusted) efficiency, JMU on offense is roughly equal to Wisconsin's defense, but on the other side of the court there's a big Badger advantage (#13 to #79). So while JMU might have success scoring as we described, the tough part will be containing Wisconsin on the other end. They have to make even more 3-pointers to stay ahead.
JMU is a pretty consistent team, rarely rising above their average performance. It looks like it happens about every six games, including the finals of the Sun Belt tournament. They need to be inconsistent, on the upside, to beat Wisconsin.
Vegas Line:
Wisconsin by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Wisconsin by 6.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Wisconsin: 68.7%
James Madison: 31.3%
Pretty close odds between Vegas and Strength; Wisconsin's 69% chance to win is slightly above the 65% historical odds for a 5-seed to beat a 12-seed.
Bottom line: There's definitely a path for James Madison to win this game, but Wisconsin usually grinds out wins in the first round, and they will be a huge SOS upgrade for the Dukes. It's true, JMU beat Michigan State, but that was a long time ago and Wisconsin beat the Spartans twice since then.
Final prediction: Wisconsin 82, James Madison 79
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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