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San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 24-10
Conference: Mountain West
vs.
UAB Blazers
Seed: 12
Record: 23-11
Conference: American
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 1:45pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Spokane, WA
Channel: TNT
Last year's runner-up is back in action against the American Athletic Conference winner.
San Diego St. UAB
Power Ratings
Strength: #26 Strength: #109
Median: #46 Median: #89
Markov: #23 Markov: #97
4-year: #22 4-year: #88
Pomeroy: #21 Pomeroy: #106
Offense: #62 Offense: #59
Defense: #9 Defense: #202
BPI: #34 BPI: #116
LRMC: #21 LRMC: #105
Other Measures:
SOS: #53 SOS: #101
Tempo (Offense): #194 Tempo (Offense): #159
Consistency: #100 Consistency: #310
Str + Reliability: #18 Str + Reliability: #132
Str + Potential: #42 Str + Potential: #91
2nd half season: #30 2nd half season: #83
Last 6: #56 Last 6: #47
Injury Mod Rank: #27 Injury Mod Rank: #109
Tourney 4-year: #7 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #50
What jumps out right away about San Diego State is the drop from their #26 Strength to #46 Median rankings. Strength is a mean average of game performance, while Median is (naturally) a median average. Apparenly SDSU has a lot of upside games that get trimmed off by the Median measure. Otherwise most of the power ratings have the Aztecs in the 20s, and UAB in the low 100s. UAB does better in the Median ranking, so they probably have more downside games that get cut.
The one area where UAB ranks better is on offense, but since these are compared to the other team's defense, it doesn't work out well for UAB, whose #59 offense faces SDSU's #9 defense, and when the Aztecs have the ball their #62 offense is up against the #202 defense. This is a big reason why an upset is unlikely here, or at least, less likely than the normal 5 vs. 12. Another reason is San Diego State's consistency, though UAB's #310 ranking suggests they have some volatility (which could, of course, make things worse for them).
The one pure comparison which gives the Blazers hope is the recent play (Last 6 Games). Though it's a cherry pick and 6 is just used because that's how long the tournament can be (plus anything lower is getting a bit silly), UAB is playing better basketball as of late. We'll look at the charts and other factors to see if it's enough to go on.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (15)Long Beach St.+12, =(5)Saint Mary's+25, @(5)Gonzaga+10, (10)Nevada+12, (8)Utah St.+14, (10)Colorado St.+16, (11)New Mexico+11, =(8)Utah St.+16
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @(6)BYU-9, @(12)Grand Canyon-6, @(11)New Mexico-18, @(10)Boise St.-1, @(10)Colorado St.-8, @(10)Nevada-OT, @(8)Utah St.-5, (10)Boise St.-OT, =(11)New Mexico-7
- Other losses (1): @UNLV-4
Overview: San Diego State didn't quite have the great season they did last year when they were 27-6 entering the tournament, but they got the same 5-seed because, well, that's how it works with name recognition. Also, they have wins over 8 tournament teams including 5-seeds Gonzaga and St. Mary's, that helped. The losses added up this year in the Mountain West, however, though it was a 6-bid league.
San Diego State went to the finals last year, and this year's team sort of reminds me of Butler the year after their 2nd-place finish. The Bulldogs weren't nearly as good but made it back to the finals somehow, losing again. Is that the Aztec's fate/destiny? Though several starters return, this year's leading scorer is 5th-year senior Jaedon LeDee, a backup last year. He averages 21.1 points per game and ads a team-leading 8.4 rebounds; last year he averaged 7.9 and 5.3.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (10)Drake+OT, (8)Florida Atlantic+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(6)Clemson-1, (12)McNeese St.-21, @(8)Florida Atlantic-13
- Other losses (8): Bradley-OT, Southern Miss-3, @Arkansas St.-19, @Charlotte-6, @SMU-3, Rice-23, Wichita St.-8, @Memphis-19
Overview: UAB essentially has 6 bad losses on their chart. The first three came early, and in a row: 81-60 to 12-seed McNeese State, 85-82 to Southern Miss, and 87-68 at Arkansas State. After that they only had excusable losses along with wins over 10-seed Drake and 8-seed Florida Atlantic, until they lost to 11-21 Rice at home, 94-71. Two games later they fell to Wichita State at home, and to Memphis 106-87. The Rice loss is particularly bad, and since all three losses were less than a month ago, how seriously can we take the Blazers' resurgence over the final five games? Are they just a random-ass team, or are they on a roll again?
The Blazers play solid offense but aren't a great shooting team, and when they go cold (they shot 34% against Rice) things can get bad. Forward Yaxel Lendeborg leads the team with 13.9 points and 10.7 rebounds.
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Game Analysis: San Diego State doesn't have a potent offense, which is good news for UAB's terrible defensive game. The Aztecs don't shoot very well and the Blazers don't defend well. SDSU rebounds well, which is unfortunate for the Blazers because they don't. Nor will they have much hope of causing turnovers. They basically have to sit back and hope the Aztecs miss their shots (and second efforts). The Blazers are pretty decent at blocking shots though.
When UAB has the ball they're going up against a great defense. The Blazers rebound well on offense and they'll need it because they don't shoot well, from the 2 or 3. They get a lot of shots blocked and are vulnerable to steals, two things the Aztecs do well.
So what we end up with is a game with two poor-shooting teams, one of which plays defense very well. Of course, on UAB's 5-game run to end the season, they shot very well and that's why they won those games. They aren't a good shooting team, but when they do shoot well they win, and this adds to their confounding inconsistency.
These teams give a good lesson in sample size. Based on the Last 6 Games sample, UAB is favored by 1.6 points. Add just one game and San Diego State wins the 7-game sample by 4.5 points—because we've added one of UAB's worst games, and one of SDSU's best.
How does that apply to this matchup? We're trying to figure out what is going on with UAB to see if their recent surge is sustainable, even for one more game, or whether they might have a dud game. They've had 5 great games in a row, but just before that, 3 out of 4 were hopeless.
Vegas Line:
SDSU by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
SDSU by 10.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
SDSU: 73.4%
UAB: 26.6%
It's no wonder the Vegas spread is much lower (almost by 4 points) than our power rating: some credit is being given to UAB's recent play. For the full season San Diego State wins almost 75% of the comparisons, higher than normal for a 5-seed. But for the 2nd half of the season that goes down to 67% and over the last six games they win only 31%.
Bottom line: UAB is clearly on a roll and playing much better than the #109 team in the country. The problem is I can't tell when they might revert to playing like the #209 team in the country. San Diego State is a consistent team and has a clear advantage on both sides of the court. We'll see if that overcomes UAB's enthusiasm, but enthusiasm doesn't mean you make your shots. I see a low-scoring game with lots of missed buckets.
Final prediction: San Diego State 58, UAB 53
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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