All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 5
Record: 25-7
Conference: West Coast
vs.
McNeese St. Cowboys
Seed: 12
Record: 30-3
Conference: Southland
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 7:25 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Salt Lake City, UT
Channel: TBS
Gonzaga is usually the team that comes into the tournament with a 30-3 record, not their opponent.
Gonzaga McNeese St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #16 Strength: #78
Median: #22 Median: #75
Markov: #28 Markov: #62
4-year: #10 4-year: #148
Pomeroy: #15 Pomeroy: #60
Offense: #9 Offense: #51
Defense: #46 Defense: #84
BPI: #16 BPI: #53
LRMC: #15 LRMC: #53
Other Measures:
SOS: #115 SOS: #355
Tempo (Offense): #41 Tempo (Offense): #141
Consistency: #118 Consistency: #155
Str + Reliability: #14 Str + Reliability: #76
Str + Potential: #25 Str + Potential: #79
2nd half season: #11 2nd half season: #75
Last 6: #13 Last 6: #87
Injury Mod Rank: #17 Injury Mod Rank: #78
Tourney 4-year: #3 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #60
Gonzaga is having an off year. A 5-seed! What is the world coming to? But they're probably underseeded too, as their power rating metric suggest a 4-seed would match their level of play. Every rating has them #15 or #16, though our Markov and Median numbers put them more at 5-seed level. Over the last four years, they rate as a top ten team, so if they revert to their program mean during the tournament they could make a good run. This year's offense is about as good as ever, but the defense is a bit suspect for Final Four consideration. McNeese State is a solid team that's definitely overperforming the program average (they won 31 games in the last three seasons; a win over Gonzaga would tie that).
While the Cowboys are outclassed in general, they're good enough on offense to stay with the Zags defense. Their problem will be getting stops. They have a number of interesting defensive peculiarities that we will get to, but for now we should note their Strength of Schedule is #355 out of 362 teams, so any and all stats used (other than power rating stats that correct for SOS) should be viewed with skepticism.
Gonzaga hasn't lost in the first round since 2008. Could it happen this year? Sure. But their recent tournament play has been pretty stellar, the 3rd best of any team in the field (this includes their runner-up run in 2021). Mark Few has a way of getting his team ready for the tournament that seems to work well. Will Wade hasn't had a lot of tournament success—not yet at least.
Season overview: Gonzaga
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): (13)Yale+15, @(3)Kentucky+4, @(5)Saint Mary's+13
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Purdue-10, (1)Connecticut-13, (5)San Diego St.-10, (5)Saint Mary's-2, =(5)Saint Mary's-9
- Other losses (2): @Washington-5, @Santa Clara-1
Overview: Gonzaga played two 1-seeds this year and lost to both Purdue and UConn by low double-digits. Not bad, but the usual standard for Gonzaga has become so high that it's a disappointment they didn't beat both. Expectations were so low at one point that the win at Kentucky was celebrated for locking up an at-large bid (the Zags haven't missed the tournament since 1998).
The faces and focus of the team has changed—Drew Timme is gone, fyi—but the winning continues, still running a fast-paced offense with four in double figures now led by Graham Ike's 16.5 ppg.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @(12)UAB+21
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (3): @Western Carolina-2, @Louisiana Tech-9, @Southeastern Louisiana-3
Overview: McNeese State might be the only team in the field that hasn't lost to another tournament team this season. They're 1-0 against the field with a huge 81-60 win over UAB from late November on their résumé. Only their 105-54 beatdown of Houston Christian compares. This does mean they lost to three non-tournament teams, including Southeastern Louisiana who ranks #303 in Kenpom.
Only UConn and James Madison have won more games that McNeese State. They do it mostly with offense—they have four in double figures led by Shahada Wells' 17.8ppg—but the defense is good too (Wells leads the team with 3.0 steals). They hold opponents to the third-lowest field goal percentage (38.5%) in the nation—but then again, remember that their SOS is #355 out of 362 teams.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: McNeese State basically lets teams shoot the three, as evidenced by their #362 (out of 362) opponent shot selection for 3 pointers (48% of opponent shots are threes!). They defend the 2-point shot pretty well, but here's how they hold opponents to 38.5%—half of those are 3-point attempts! They're also great at steals, and that is their bread and butter, as they don't rebound particularly well.
So what will Gonzaga do when allowed to shoot 3s at will? Probably still take a lot of 2-pointers, since that's their style. McNeese is actually top ten in 3-point percentage, but again, look at the SOS.
Teams that win a lot tend to get used to it, and they expect to win. It creates a self-fulfilling prophecy, where a team can sort of "will" a win to happen because they expect it. Or, they are rather shocked when they finally do lose.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 8.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 73.7%
McNeese St.: 26.3%
The usual Vegas line a point or two beneath our power rating spread. Gonzaga is about a 3 in 4 favorite here, which is higher than the historical winning percentage for 5-seeds (65%). As we noted, the Zags are a strong 5-seed.
Bottom line: I wish McNeese State had played somebody else, as I wanted to advance them but just don't see them beating the Zags. They haven't played anyone close to this level all year. And I do realize that last statement sounds like what everyone says before a big upset.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 79, McNeese St. 70
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments