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Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 4
Record: 22-10
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Samford Bulldogs
Seed: 13
Record: 29-5
Conference: Southern
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 9:55pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Salt Lake City, UT
Channel: TBS
Two fast-tempo offenses clash in Utah.
Kansas Samford
Power Ratings
Strength: #20 Strength: #90
Median: #18 Median: #88
Markov: #16 Markov: #96
4-year: #16 4-year: #100
Pomeroy: #22 Pomeroy: #81
Offense: #65 Offense: #69
Defense: #10 Defense: #116
BPI: #20 BPI: #96
LRMC: #25 LRMC: #75
Other Measures:
SOS: #10 SOS: #250
Tempo (Offense): #55 Tempo (Offense): #6
Consistency: #339 Consistency: #303
Str + Reliability: #44 Str + Reliability: #106
Str + Potential: #13 Str + Potential: #74
2nd half season: #18 2nd half season: #91
Last 6: #50 Last 6: #140
Injury Mod Rank: #16/#48 Injury Mod Rank: #79
Tourney 4-year: #4 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #62
Some interesting numbers here. Clearly Kansas has the overall advantage, but how much of one they have might depend on how their injury issues play out. The Jayhawks are #20 in Strength and low 20s in all the other power ratings, a little better in Median rating, a metric which can sometimes naturally screen out the effects of injuries. Samford is better than #100 in all the metrics, including #75 in the LRMC.
Kansas has a top ten defense but on offense they're only #65. Meanwhile Samford's defense is just #116 but their offense is very nearly the equal of the Jayhawks. Not that this fact really helps the Bulldogs; when they have the ball they're still up against a #10 defense. On both ends of the court Kansas has a solid advantage.
The pace of the game should be pretty quick, as Kansas plays fast on offense and Samford plays really fast! On defense Kansas does try to slow the game down to half court play, so there will be a conflict of interests when Samford has the ball. The Consistency numbers are worth checking out too: both teams are in the 300s, making the outcome more up-in-the-air than most games.
Kansas' potential for a deep run is affected by a lot of things, including their lack of consistency. When they are "on" they are very good, and their "Potential" ranking reflects this. But their "Reliability" number suggests that winning over a many-game tournament is not likely. Basically they need to play their best, and their Injury mod ranking shows how different the team can be with and without Kevin McCullar. When the team is healthy they are a probable Sweet Sixteen team, but without him they are a potential first-round exit. His status is unknown.
Meanwhile Samford's ranking jumps to #79 when injuries are accounted for, specifically one of their worst losses (to Wofford) occurred with three starters out. Remove that game alone and their metrics improve noticeably. And if Kansas is still hobbled, it's now the #48 team vs. #79, which is not much of a leap anymore.
Neither team has been playing well lately, with Kansas down to #50 and Samford down to a dismal #140. But that's probably just a snapshot of two very inconsistent teams; any six-game span could be much better or much worse. We'll look at the charts to see "the rest of the story."
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(3)Kentucky+5, =(2)Tennessee+9, (1)Connecticut+4, (13)Yale+15, (9)TCU+2, (1)Houston+13, (3)Baylor+3, (7)Texas+19
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(2)Marquette-14, @(2)Iowa St.-4, @(6)Texas Tech-29, (6)BYU-8, @(3)Baylor-8, @(1)Houston-30
- Other losses (4): @UCF-5, @West Virginia-6, @Kansas St.-OT, =Cincinnati-20
Overview: Kansas has a résumé that a 2-seed would be jealous of. Hell, even a 1-seed. The Jayhawks have beaten not one but two 1-seeds (UConn, Houston), 2-seed Tennessee, and 3-seeds Kentucky and Baylor. Four of their 10 losses come from 3-seeds or higher (Marquette, Iowa State, Baylor, and Houston). It's kind of remarkable that their SOS is only #10.
This shows that Kansas can play with anyone under the right circumstances. And the Jayhawks found those circumstances mostly earlier in the season; the wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, and UConn all occurred on or before December 1st. In 2024 the injuries and erratic play started adding up and all of their 4 losses to non-tournament teams happened. Their high may have been their home win over Houston, the low three games later at Texas Tech, a 79-50 loss.
Kansas is led on offense by Kevin McCullar and 7-2 transfer center Hunter Dickinson, who score 18 points each. Dickinson leads in rebounding with 10.8 per game. Both are hobbled by injuries right now and missed the last game, a 72-52 loss to Cincinnati. Dickinson is expected back for the first round game while McCullar is less certain.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(1)Purdue-53
- Other losses (4): @VCU-10, @Furman-10, @Mercer-4, @Wofford-22
Overview: Samford opened the season at 1-seed Purdue and it wasn't pretty at all. It was 21 to 0 right off the bat and only got worse from there as the Bulldogs lost 98-45. The next game, at VCU, was much better (they lost 75-65) and then the schedule got a lot softer and Samford hit their stride. They won 17 straight and had one really bad performance, the 91-69 loss to Wofford (game 30), a game where three starters were out. Since then they've played very well and won their tournament, so their poor "Last Six Games" rating has to be considered in this light. Their low Consistency rating is also affected a lot by the Purdue and Wofford games; for much of the year they were very consistent.
The Bulldogs are one of the best-shooting teams in the country, #7 in Effective FG percentage, #8 in 3-point percentage and #20 in 2's. Four starters score in double figures led by Achor Achor's 15.8ppg.
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Game Analysis: The most basic comparison between these teams suggest it's a bad matchup for Samford. Their strength is their offense, and when they have the ball they're up against the #10 defensive team. Meanwhile Kansas' weakness is their own erratic offensive play, but Samford's defense is rated in the low #100s. On a very basic level it's hard for the Bulldogs to overcome a disadvantage on both ends of the court.
Another problem is their SOS. #250 isn't horrible, but it's the fact that they've only played two teams in the top 100, and those were at the very beginning of the season (they lost both). How do they go back to playing a top 25 level team after four months? It's true that a lot of small conference teams face this challenge and still get the upset, but more often they end up being in over the heads.
And speaking of in over their heads, Samford is the 13th shortest team in the nation. Kansas is the 6th tallest. We already saw what happened when Samford faced Zack Edey, and facing Hunter Dickinson is not that different. Samford is very vulnerable to getting shots blocked and Kansas is good at that; same goes for steals.
With all that said, if Kevin McCullar and Dickinson don't play Kansas is a different team. Dickinson should be back but McCullar is very questionable right now. If Kansas plays like they did in their last two games, they're going to exit very early.
Vegas Line:
Kansas by 7 1/2
Power rating: spread
Kansas by 8.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas: 70.9%
Samford: 29.1%
Some people will be surprised that KU is such a slim favorite against a team they might never have heard of. But our power rating seconds the motion for the most part, and the odds to win reflect both teams' erratic play. Normally a 13-seed wins this matchup 21% of the time; here Samford has some extra opportunity.
Bottom line: I don't think Kansas will make a deep run. The erratic play, the poor offense, and injury questions are just too much. But neither do I think Samford can quite pull this one off. It's not a bad upset to take—the Jayhawks are vulnerable and the Bulldogs are game. But there's just too much fundamental basketball to overcome for me to make this pick.
Final prediction: Kansas 94, Samford 81
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