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Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 4
Record: 21-11
Conference: SEC
vs.
Charleston Cougars
Seed: 13
Record: 27-7
Conference: Coastal Athletic
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 7:35pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Spokane, WA
Channel: truTV
Alabama is a very strong 4-seed, does Charleston have a chance by the numbers?
Alabama Charleston
Power Ratings
Strength: #9 Strength: #108
Median: #13 Median: #99
Markov: #26 Markov: #107
4-year: #6 4-year: #96
Pomeroy: #13 Pomeroy: #98
Offense: #2 Offense: #58
Defense: #112 Defense: #176
BPI: #10 BPI: #97
LRMC: #18 LRMC: #89
Other Measures:
SOS: #4 SOS: #196
Tempo (Offense): #3 Tempo (Offense): #44
Consistency: #359 Consistency: #107
Str + Reliability: #30 Str + Reliability: #102
Str + Potential: #2 Str + Potential: #124
2nd half season: #22 2nd half season: #93
Last 6: #112 Last 6: #53
Injury Mod Rank: #5 Injury Mod Rank: #108
Tourney 4-year: #13 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #49
Embedded in all these numbers is hope. Hope for Charleston in trying to pull of the upset. It doesn't look good at first, with Alabama in the top ten in Strength and Charleston over 100. Pomeroy, BPI, and LRMC aren't of much help, though the latter closes the gap a bit. The Tide are only #26 in Markov Chain, which is interesting, but it reflects their lower LRMC. The first ray of hope comes from Pomeroy's Offense and Defense breakdowns. Not the #2 Tide offense vs. the #176 Cougar defense; that's so bad it hardly matters. But Charleston's #58 offense vs. Alabama's #112 defense gives them hope that they can score and keep up, possession for possession.
The tempo for each team doesn't add to the hope, though. A fast tempo means more possessions and a wider gap between good and mediocre teams, so it's not what Charleston wants. This game is going to be played very fast, which will suit Alabama just fine. But the next line down for Alabama: Consistency: #359 is about all anyone could want. When a team is that inconsistent it could mean they have a complete dud of a game, and then it's yours for the taking. Charleston is pretty consistent, but the Tide are inconsistent enough for both of them.
As if they needed more hope, here's some more: The Tide have been playing pretty terribly lately, and over the Last 6 Game sample Charleston is a clear favorite! But before we get too excited: Alabama has had injuries lately and when we correct for them, they rise to #5 in Strength, making them tougher than we thought. Let's look at all this and see what Charleston's level of hope should be.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (14)Morehead St.+32, =(11)Oregon+8, (6)South Carolina+27, @(8)Mississippi St.+8, (4)Auburn+4, (8)Mississippi St.+32, (9)Texas A&M+25, (7)Florida+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (10): (6)Clemson-8, =(1)Purdue-6, @(3)Creighton-3, @(2)Arizona-13, @(2)Tennessee-20, @(4)Auburn-18, @(3)Kentucky-22, (2)Tennessee-7, @(7)Florida-18, =(7)Florida-14
- Other losses (1): =Ohio St.-11
Overview: For all the games they won the Tide didn't beat a team higher than a 4-seed. They lost to 1-seed Purdue, 2-seed Arizona, 2-seed Tennessee (twice), 3-seed Kentucky, 3-seed Creighton, 6-seed Clemson, and 7-seed Florida (twice). No wonder their SOS is #4 in the nation. If they'd won just a few of those they would have a more proper seed for their level of play. Which begs the question, can Alabama win the big game? For right now though, they have to win the small game!
The peaks and valleys of the season can be seen above, and the decline at the end is precipitous. #5 scorer Latrell Wrightsell (9.0ppg) was out from game 26 (overtime Florida win at home), through the Tennessee home loss (game 29). #4 scorer Rylan Griffen (11.0) missed the Arkansas home win. Both played 20 minutes in the 102-88 loss to Florida in the final game.
Mark Sears leads the team with a 21.1 per game average. He was recently named a Wooden Award finalist.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(11)Duquesne-18, =(13)Vermont-9, @(8)Florida Atlantic-16
- Other losses (4): =Wyoming-7, Towson-4, @UNC Wilmington-9, UNC Wilmington-6
Overview: Charleston has no tournament-team wins. That should rule out an upset right? I don't know how many times I've thought that, only to see a team get its first tournament skin in the tournament itself. But generally, no it's not a great thing. They didn't even do very well against the lowly seeds they played. But they won 12 straight at the end, that's all that matters.
Three Cougars average in double figures led by Reyne Smith with 12.8 points per game. One good thing (for the purposes of an upset) about Charleston's offense is that they shoot a ton of 3's (47% of their attempts are threes). That stirs things up.
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Game Analysis: You can go two ways with Alabama in your brackets. Either figure that they're going to catch fire and play at their best, and advance them to the Elite Eight or Final Four. Or figure that they're going to be upset somewhere due to erratic play and cut your losses before advancing them too far. They can beat a North Carolina and an Arizona at their best.
The question is about their recent play: injury-driven, or a true slump that might continue? If the former, maybe they come back stronger; if the latter, does it hang over to the first round game and leave them vulnerable? In other words Alabama seems poised to play worse than ever, or better than ever.
If it had been Mark Sears who missed those games I would believe the effect was all about personnel. But it was the #4 and #5 scorers. Most teams don't play noticeably different missing one of their less-crucial starters, not over a small sample.
So how will Charleston do it? They will have to hit their threes, that's about the only path I see. Both teams shoot a ton of threes, and they will just have to fall for Charleston and not fall for the Tide, if the Cougars want to have a chance.
Vegas Line:
Alabama by 9 1/2
Power rating: spread
Alabama by 15.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Alabama: 80.2%
Charleston: 19.8%
Wow, the oddsmakers are thinking about Alabama's recent issue a LOT, it looks like. Normally their line would be around 13 1/2. I think Alabama's recent play and injuries both have set the line lower.
Our 15-point spread gives the Tide an big odds advantage, but Alabama's erratic play takes some of that away and they end up with just about the normal odds for a 4-seed to beat a 13-seed.
Bottom line: Lots of March Madness upsets happen even when there is no hope at all, so there is clearly enough hope to call this upset. It's all on Alabama, it feels like they're either going to flame out with a loss or win by 40 points.
Final prediction: Charleston 96, Alabama 90
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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