All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 3
Record: 23-9
Conference: SEC
vs.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Seed: 14
Record: 23-11
Conference: Horizon
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Channel: CBS
Kentucky is looking for their first NCAA championship since 2012. Oakland is making their first tournament appearance since 2011.
Kentucky Oakland
Power Ratings
Strength: #19 Strength: #135
Median: #30 Median: #125
Markov: #14 Markov: #122
4-year: #19 4-year: #171
Pomeroy: #19 Pomeroy: #137
Offense: #5 Offense: #135
Defense: #108 Defense: #165
BPI: #21 BPI: #130
LRMC: #20 LRMC: #107
Other Measures:
SOS: #65 SOS: #146
Tempo (Offense): #21 Tempo (Offense): #307
Consistency: #246 Consistency: #196
Str + Reliability: #20 Str + Reliability: #135
Str + Potential: #18 Str + Potential: #132
2nd half season: #19 2nd half season: #133
Last 6: #21 Last 6: #195
Injury Mod Rank: #22 Injury Mod Rank: #136
Tourney 4-year: #20 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #63
Kentucky's average Strength is #19 while their Median is #30, suggesting they have big outlier games on the upside that get erased by the Median calculation. That fits in with the Markov ranking of #14 as those big wins are higher likelihood, which suits the Markov chain process. Oakland is just glad to be here, and all their numbers are triple digit though LRMC comes close to #100.
Of note is Kentucky's poor Defense ranking of #108 in efficiency. That's a big red flag against a deep tournament run. Their offense will allow them to beat anyone but can they get stops in close games? Probably not. It almost gives Oakland some hope, after all their #135 offense isn't far off in efficiency from Kentucky's D. But somehow it seems that the Golden Grizzlies (really?) are going backwards lately, ranking #195 in recent play.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(1)North Carolina+4, @(7)Florida+2, (8)Mississippi St.+13, @(4)Auburn+11, (4)Alabama+22, @(8)Mississippi St.+2, @(2)Tennessee+4
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(4)Kansas-5, @(9)Texas A&M-OT, @(6)South Carolina-17, (7)Florida-OT, (2)Tennessee-11, (5)Gonzaga-4, =(9)Texas A&M-10
- Other losses (2): UNC Wilmington-7, @LSU-1
Overview: Kentucky's outlook changed every week of the year, from "they're going to miss the tournament" (after losing to UNC Wilmington at home) to "they're on track to win it all" (after beating North Carolina in Atlanta) and reliably ended up at a 3-seed, meaning they probably won't win it all but they have a shot—like Kentucky every year nowadays. After another home loss—their fourth—to Gonzaga, the sky-is-falling crew was back but the 'Cats won 7 of their last 9 games including wins over 4-seeds Alabama and Auburn and 2-seed Tennessee, the latter two on the road.
Antonio Reeves averages an even 20.0 points per game for the Wildcats, with four others in double figures in the high-powered offense. They have three players over 7-feet tall who rotate at center, and they lead the nation in blocked shots.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(3)Illinois-11, =(10)Drake-8, @(9)Michigan St.-17, @(7)Dayton-24
- Other losses (7): @Ohio St.-6, Purdue Fort Wayne-21, Toledo-1, @Cleveland St.-8, @Green Bay-10, @Northern Kentucky-OT, Wright St.-21
Overview: Oakland didn't beat any teams in the field this year, and their last (and only) NCAA tournament win dates back to 2005. But they faced a lot of tournament teams, with 3-seed Illinois and 10-seed Drake in the first four games. The tough schedule continued with 9-seed Michigan State and 6-seed Dayton both losses, though they did beat Xavier on the road 78-76 in that stretch to get a Major conference win. Their Horizon schedule was much more forgiving and the Grizzlies went 15-5. In mid-to-late February it really looked like they were pulling away but then a 21-point home loss to Wright State slowed their momentum, though they did enough to win the Horizon tournament and get the auto-bid.
Forward Trey Townshend leads the team in points (16.9), rebounds (7.8), assists (3.1), and steals (1.3). Oakland starts a shorter lineup where the 6-6 Townshend is the 2nd tallest on the court.
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Game Analysis: Ever seen a game where a bunch of short guys just runs around a taller team and confounds them, and scores seemingly at will? I have a feeling that's going to happen in this game, as Trey Townshend and crew mess with Kentucky and its three 7-footers.
Not that I think Oakland will win the game, but Kentucky's defense is suspect (that's being generous) and Oakland can keep up with them on offense. On the other end the Wildcats will have their way but they might find it hard to pull away. Oakland rebounds well on offense, shoots well enough to have success vs. Kentucky, and shows patience with their slow tempo. The one think Kentucky does well on defense is block shots (again, they have three 7-footers) and that can't be your whole defensive game plan.
I see a scrappy game from Oakland and Kentucky fans worried that it's 2022 again.
Vegas Line:
Kentucky by 13 1/2
Power rating: spread
Kentucky by 14.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kentucky: 83.2%
Oakland: 16.8%
As usual the Vegas line is just a touch under the Strength power rating estimate, in fact this time it's a bit closer than normal (seems to be around 1.5 points lower on average, or around 10% lower). The usual odds of a 3-seed beating a 14-seed are 85.5%, so these odds are pretty in-line.
Bottom line: Oakland hasn't been at their best lately despite winning their tournament, and Kentucky has been their best (other than the last game vs. Texas Tech). The Wildcats will eventually make some breathing room.
Final prediction: Kentucky 90, Oakland 84
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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