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Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 3
Record: 26-8
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Morehead State Eagles
Seed: 14
Record: 26-8
Conference: Ohio Valley
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 3:10 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Omaha, NE
Channel: truTV
Two 26-8 teams, two very different seeds.
Illinois Morehead St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #14 Strength: #129
Median: #16 Median: #120
Markov: #9 Markov: #152
4-year: #14 4-year: #163
Pomeroy: #10 Pomeroy: #111
Offense: #3 Offense: #124
Defense: #93 Defense: #120
BPI: #12 BPI: #102
LRMC: #9 LRMC: #120
Other Measures:
SOS: #25 SOS: #348
Tempo (Offense): #151 Tempo (Offense): #356
Consistency: #11 Consistency: #77
Str + Reliability: #3 Str + Reliability: #113
Str + Potential: #30 Str + Potential: #151
2nd half season: #12 2nd half season: #139
Last 6: #9 Last 6: #101
Injury Mod Rank: #15 Injury Mod Rank: #121
Tourney 4-year: #18 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #61
This matchup has the typical discrepancies you'd expect between a 3-seed and a 14-seed throughout the power rating numbers. The widest is the Offense ranking of #3 vs. #124, and the closest are the defenses: #93 and #120. This suggests that the balanced Morehead team will find some success on offense but when on defense they will be in over their heads. In general they will be in over their heads as they've played one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Eagles will also be facing one of the more consistent teams in the country, and, being pretty consistent themselves, it's hard to see it playing out too far from what is expected.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (14)Oakland+11, =(8)Florida Atlantic+9, (14)Colgate+17, (9)Northwestern+30, (9)Michigan St.+3, (8)Nebraska+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+8, =(8)Nebraska+11, =(5)Wisconsin+6
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (2)Marquette-7, @(2)Tennessee-7, @(1)Purdue-5, @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(9)Michigan St.-8, (1)Purdue-6
- Other losses (2): Maryland-9, @Penn St.-1
Overview: How is this for a chart? Doesn't that just say, #11 in the nation in consistency? It's like a picket fence. A few aberrations, yes—like the 104-71 win over Fairleigh Dickinson which causes a spike in game 13, and the game 16 loss to Maryland at home, one of only two to non-tournament teams this year for the Illini. This is the chart of team that is consistent enough to not have a dud game kick them out of the tournament early.
Illinois is great on offense, but not nearly as great on the other side of the court. Four players average in double figures led by Terrence Shannon's 23.0 ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(4)Alabama-32, @(1)Purdue-30
- Other losses (6): @Penn St.-23, @Indiana-1, @SIU Edwardsville-13, @Little Rock-1, @Tennessee Martin-6, Southern Indiana-7
Overview: Morehead State won a lot of games this year—as many as Illinois did, as a matter of fact. It was a rough start at 2-3, losing to Alabama and Purdue by a combined 62 points, and even Penn State won by 23. But then the schedule got easier—a LOT easier, easier as in Midway (94-53, game 7), Saint Mary of the Woods (102-33, game 11), and Alice Lloyd (101-39, game 13). The Eagles did play well at Indiana though, losing by just a point. Other than the SIU Edwardsville loss they had a pretty great run for 20 straight games, then they lost three in a row before recovering with a great 6-game run that included an Ohio Valley championship.
The Eagles are equally efficient on offense and defense; 6-7 guard/forward Riley Minix leads the team with 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds.
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Game Analysis: With Illinois' consistency it's hard to pick against them here, especially given Morehead State's consistency. Looking at their chart you'd think the Eagles had a killer last 6 games but it's kind of an illusion, as all their prior games were just that bad. Yes, they won most of those but their schedule was a breeze.
Illinois has problems on defense and the Eagles match up with them pretty well. They're a reasonably tall team across the board, and add a 7-0 center and they can cause matchup problems. Illinois, however, has extra-tall guards (both 6-6) so one of Morehead's usual advantages is negated. But so is one of their problems—turnovers, since the Illini almost never steal the ball.
The Illinis clearly have the edge when on offense, and while Morehead State's defensive stats aren't that bad, remember they come against one of the easier schedules you'll find. Most D-I schools have little trouble shutting down Shawnee State.
Vegas Line:
Illinois by 11 1/2
Power rating: spread
Illinois by 15.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Illinois: 92.1%
Morehead St.: 7.9%
If you saw our review for Arizona vs. Long Beach State, you'll note that the estimated margin there (24 points) was much bigger, but the likelihood to win (91%) was a bit smaller. That's because Arizona's Consistency rank of #361 makes their results less certain, even when the average margin is huge. Here Illinois is a 16 point favorite but their odds to win—by percentage—are bigger than Arizona's. A team like Illinois is not as likely to be upset—though they're also less likely to upset a favorite.
Bottom line: It should be a pretty good game when Morehead State has the ball, less so on the other end of the court.
Final prediction: Illinois 82, Morehead St. 67
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