All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 3
Record: 23-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
Akron Zips
Seed: 14
Record: 24-10
Conference: MAC
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 1:30 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Channel: TNT
In the last three years Creighton has been to the Round of 32, the Sweet Sixteen, and Elite Eight. Is it time for a Final Four?
Creighton Akron
Power Ratings
Strength: #13 Strength: #117
Median: #15 Median: #115
Markov: #11 Markov: #113
4-year: #12 4-year: #112
Pomeroy: #11 Pomeroy: #116
Offense: #12 Offense: #162
Defense: #24 Defense: #97
BPI: #9 BPI: #106
LRMC: #11 LRMC: #99
Other Measures:
SOS: #26 SOS: #216
Tempo (Offense): #172 Tempo (Offense): #239
Consistency: #314 Consistency: #35
Str + Reliability: #17 Str + Reliability: #93
Str + Potential: #9 Str + Potential: #152
2nd half season: #14 2nd half season: #141
Last 6: #12 Last 6: #210
Injury Mod Rank: #11 Injury Mod Rank: #116
Tourney 4-year: #5 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #54
Both teams have pretty stable power ratings, which isn't surprising for a top team like Creighton but Akron barely deviates from their spot in the 110s across all the Strength measures and Pomeroy. BPI and LRMC boost them a bit, but there's quite a consensus. On the whole the numbers are pretty wide, and perhaps the biggest discrepancy is Consistency, where Creighton is #314 and Akron #35. This suggests that the Bluejays are vulnerable to erratic play, but also that the Zips are unlikely to be able to raise their game enough to take advantage. They've also been quite a bit worse lately, despite winning the MAC tournament.
As you can see from their 4-year tournament composite, the Bluejays have not been an easy out, winning at least one game in each of the last three NCAA tournaments including an Elite Eight run last year. Is it time for Greg McDermott's breakthrough Final Four as a coach?
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): @(8)Nebraska+29, (4)Alabama+3, (1)Connecticut+19, (2)Marquette+14
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(10)Colorado St.-21, @(2)Marquette-5, @(1)Connecticut-14
- Other losses (6): @UNLV-15, Villanova-OT, Butler-1, @Providence-OT, @St. John's-14, =Providence-5
Overview: Creighton has played some great basketball interrupted by the occasional meltdown performance. They had a long period of consistent play in the middle of the season but early on, and later, their erratic play was confounding. The losses to Colorado State (69-48, game 6) and UNLV (79-64, game 10) weren't far removed from an 89-60 beatdown of 8-seed Nebraska. And late in the season they beat Butler 79-57 on the road, and 1-seed UConn 85-66, then lost to St. John's by 14 and to Providence in the Big East tournament. Is this team consistent enough to make a Final Four run? They're also missing a few backups to 7-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner, who is part of a trio averaging 53 points per game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @(15)South Dakota St.+6
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(8)Utah St.-3, =(10)Drake-20, @(12)James Madison-14
- Other losses (7): @UNLV-2, =St. Bonaventure-1, @Miami OH-2, @Toledo-8, @Ohio-7, Eastern Michigan-1, @Western Michigan-6
Overview: Akron has played four tournament teams, beating one of them and playing Utah State pretty close in the Cayman Islands. Not many of their performances stand out as the kind that would beat a team like Creighton, though beating Eastern Michigan by 31 (game 21) comes close, as does the Bradley win (67-52, game 8). 6-7 forward Enrique Freeman leads the team with 18.6 points and 12.9 rebounds.
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Game Analysis: On defense, Creighton doesn't foul and doesn't steal the ball, they just rebound misses to get back on offense. Akron's main shot is a 2-pointer, which is bad in this case as the Bluejays have great 2-point defense (helps having a 7-footer).
Akron actually matches up pretty well against Creighton position-wise—outside of the center spot. They have solid forwards but just a 6-9 center, so they'll have trouble guarding the Jays in the interior.
Vegas Line:
Creighton by 13 1/2
Power rating: spread
Creighton by 15.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Creighton: 85.8%
Akron: 14.5%
Akron should probably get a bit of home court advantage as they're only a few hours away from Pittsburgh. Probably not enough to make a call on the game, but could keep things a bit closer. If we give half home court the Strength power rating margin matched Vegas almost exactly.
Bottom line: Creighton should win this game, it just depends on whether they have a good game or a dud. It would take a big dud to lose. Akron hasn't been all that impressive lately and might not put up a lot of resistance.
Final prediction: Creighton 83, Akron 58
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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