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Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 2
Record: 24-8
Conference: SEC
vs.
St. Peter's Peacocks
Seed: 15
Record: 19-13
Conference: Metro Atlantic
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Charlotte, NC
Channel: TNT
Last time I profiled the Peacocks, I came within a hair's breadth of picking the upset. But I chickened out, then St. Peter's made the Elite Eight. Now they're back against another 2-seed from the SEC.
Tennessee St. Peter's
Power Ratings
Strength: #7 Strength: #194
Median: #7 Median: #183
Markov: #8 Markov: #216
4-year: #5 4-year: #221
Pomeroy: #7 Pomeroy: #187
Offense: #29 Offense: #305
Defense: #3 Defense: #76
BPI: #7 BPI: #196
LRMC: #8 LRMC: #189
Other Measures:
SOS: #14 SOS: #210
Tempo (Offense): #24 Tempo (Offense): #344
Consistency: #278 Consistency: #44
Str + Reliability: #11 Str + Reliability: #150
Str + Potential: #8 Str + Potential: #239
2nd half season: #6 2nd half season: #204
Last 6: #11 Last 6: #187
Injury Mod Rank: #8 Injury Mod Rank: #143
Tourney 4-year: #9 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #27
So will it happen again? The similarities are there: a 2-seed from the SEC who is playing well enough for people to be talking about a national title, and an upstart—St. Peter's in both cases—who just made a solid tournament run to get their auto-bid. Since I still have the previous article, we can compare Tennessee to Kentucky, and St. Peter's to...St. Peter's.
Kentucky of 2022 was probably a bit better than 2024 Tennessee, at least according to the power ratings. Kentucky was consensus top 5 while the Vols this year are top ten. The KenPom numbers for Offense and Defense were almost exactly the same, but reversed: Kentucky had the #4 offense and #27 defense. The Wildcats that year were a more consistent team, making an upset less likely than over this year's UT who rates at #278 in consistency. Both teams played a quick tempo, and both had slipped a bit over their last 6 games (Kentucky a bit more, to #18).
St. Peter's of 2022 was a much better team, ranking #139 in Strength, and #118 in Pomeroy. Their offense was #259 and their defense was a crazy #34, which is what made me look twice. This year's #76 is still pretty amazing, but nothing like two years ago. And finally, 2002 St. Peter's was playing incredibly in recent play, at #48. This year's team is playing about the same, though their Injury Correction gives them a bit of a boost to #143.
So there's nothing here—not like there was in 2022. I wouldn't have given teams of this profile a second look for picking an upset, unlike in 2022 where I definitely would have picked a 14 to beat a 3-seed with the same situation. Unless the charts tell an outrageous story, I'm not even going to spend a lot of time on this one, despite the Peacocks' history!
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): @(5)Wisconsin+10, (3)Illinois+7, =(11)N.C. State+9, (7)Florida+19, (4)Alabama+20, @(3)Kentucky+11, (9)Texas A&M+35, (4)Auburn+8, @(4)Alabama+7, @(6)South Carolina+7
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(1)Purdue-4, =(4)Kansas-9, @(1)North Carolina-8, @(8)Mississippi St.-5, (6)South Carolina-4, @(9)Texas A&M-16, (3)Kentucky-4, =(8)Mississippi St.-17
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Well, this chart almost gives me pause. I don't like how it ends for Tennessee, a slow drop-off to the two losses, ending in their worst performance of the season. Talk about ending on a bad note. And losing in the first round of your conference championship is a red flag for Final Four advancement. But let's look at the good: 10 wins over tournament teams, and quite significantly, zero losses to non-tournament teams. Along the way Tennessee beat 3-seed Illinois, 3-seed Kentucky, and 4-seed Alabama and 4-seed Auburn twice each. They also lost to both 1-seeds they faced, Purdue and North Carolina.
Tennessee is better on defense (where they are elite) than on offense, but they're no slouch. Naismith short-lister Dalton Knecht averages 21.1 points per game and shoots almost 40% behind the 3-pt line.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Duquesne-9
- Other losses (12): @Seton Hall-11, @Fairleigh Dickinson-1, UMass Lowell-8, @Rutgers-31, @Fairfield-9, Rider-5, Niagara-OT, @Marist-11, @Quinnipiac-11, Fairfield-2, @Rider-5, Quinnipiac-15
Overview: St. Peter's season overview chart doesn't quite look like 2022's chart, which had a veritable Game of Thrones wall made up of their last 7 games. By comparison, the bump at the end is nothing. Like the 2022 squad, the team is better on defense than it is when playing offense, and only two players average in double figures led by Corey Washington's 16.5. He also leads with 6.6 rebounds per game.
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Game Analysis: Oddly enough, even though this year's model of St. Peter's doesn't compare to the 2022 model, it might not have to. Tennessee's recent drop-off is worrying, especially their last game, and if I had to pick a 2-seed to lose it might be the Volunteers.
But just looking at what St. Peter's offense is going to face against Tennessee's defense and I stop considering anything foolish. Some stats that stick out include: St. Peter's is #359 in 2-point percentage, while Tennessee is #9 in defending 2-pointers. The Peacocks are #324, i.e. really bad, at committing turnovers on offense, while Tennessee is #49 in steals. The Vols are #21 in blocking shots while the Peacocks are #288 at not getting their shots blocked. It goes on, and remember these particular stats are not adjusted for the fact that the Peacocks face the #210 SOS vs. Tennessee's #14 SOS.
The other side of the court is not nearly as bad for St. Peter's because their defense is decent and Tennessee's offense can struggle. But you get the point. If Dalton Knecht has "one of his games" then it will get ugly.
Vegas Line:
Tennessee by 21 1/2
Power rating: spread
Tennessee by 22.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Tennessee: 94.0%
St. Peter's: 6.0%
More evidence that this game is not as close: the line is 21 1/2, as opposed to the 17 1/2 line from 2022. And the Strength power rating gives a 22.3 point spread instead of an 18.6 point spread. Tennessee has a 94% chance to win—Kentucky's in 2022 was 92%. Most revealing is the 6-game sample, which favors Tennessee by 22 points; Kentucky was favored by 4.2 points!
Bottom line: Though I don't like Tennessee's chart, I don't really like St. Peter's chart either. There's nothing there to wake me up and make me say hey, here's a 15-seed that needs some attention. The only thing in their favor is history, which tends to repeat. Tennessee had better take note of that and get their house in order, because if they repeat their last performance? St. Peter's could repeat theirs from two years ago.
Final prediction: Tennessee 65, St. Peter's 53
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