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Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 2
Record: 25-9
Conference: Big East
vs.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Seed: 15
Record: 22-11
Conference: CUSA
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 2:00pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
Hold on to your seats, this is going to be a speedy one.
Marquette Western Kentucky
Power Ratings
Strength: #15 Strength: #140
Median: #10 Median: #140
Markov: #12 Markov: #134
4-year: #15 4-year: #143
Pomeroy: #12 Pomeroy: #132
Offense: #21 Offense: #191
Defense: #19 Defense: #103
BPI: #14 BPI: #160
LRMC: #10 LRMC: #133
Other Measures:
SOS: #6 SOS: #235
Tempo (O/D/All): #9/361/#91 Tempo (O/D/All): #4/#86/#1
Consistency: #177 Consistency: #13
Str + Reliability: #12 Str + Reliability: #105
Str + Potential: #16 Str + Potential: #190
2nd half season: #10 2nd half season: #120
Last 6: #41 Last 6: #114
Injury Mod Rank: #9 Injury Mod Rank: #141
Tourney 4-year: #16 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #65
Marquette and WKU both like to push the pace on offense, to the tune of both ranking in the top ten in tempo. This game should be a fast one, with the caveat that Marquette is "slow on D" meaning they tend to force long possessions for their opponents. So overall their average pace is just #91, while Western Kentucky's is #1. Marquette is clearly the most schizo team tempo wise, at #9 on offense and #361 of 362 on defense.
They don't have all that much more in common. The Golden Eagles rank in the top 25 in almost everything, even down to both Offense and Defense, while the Hilltoppers don't break into the top 100 anywhere. Marquette is even top ten in Schedule Strength, to WKU's #235.
The one thing Western Kentucky excels at is Consistency, where they are #13 in the nation. This isn't a good thing for an underdog to have. It's a great thing if you're on of the best teams in Conference-USA and you want to win a 3-game tournament; you hope the few teams better than you mess up along the way, and you end up with inferior opponents, and you take care of business. That's what happened to WKU last week, but it's not a good scenario for a heavy March Madness underdog.
The Hilltoppers are playing a bit better lately while Marquette is fading. But that's mostly due to injuries; Tyler Kolek missed several games, and with him (and others) back the Golden Eagles rate even better than before (due to excluding their bad games from the mix).
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): @(3)Illinois+7, =(4)Kansas+14, (7)Texas+21, (3)Creighton+5
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(1)Purdue-3, @(5)Wisconsin-11, @(1)Connecticut-28, @(3)Creighton-14, (1)Connecticut-7, =(1)Connecticut-16
- Other losses (3): @Providence-15, @Seton Hall-3, Butler-7
Overview: Marquette ended up with the #6 Strength of Schedule but only played 10 games against tournament teams. Blame the Selection Committee for excluding so many Big East teams for that. They beat 3-seed Illinois and 4-seed Kansas in the first five games of the year, then lost to Big Ten teams Wisconsin and Purdue. The latter was their first shot at beating a 1-seed; they got three more attempts vs. UConn and ended up 0-4.
The Eagles finished with a dismal 3-3 run, but 2nd-leading scorer Tyler Kolek (15.0ppg) missed all those games. Kam Jones is the #1 scorer for the Eagles with 16.8; both he and Kolek shoot over 40% from the 3-point line.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (11): @Wichita St.-10, =Canisius-8, =UNC Asheville-10, @Sam Houston St.-4, @New Mexico St.-2, @UTEP-6, Sam Houston St.-2, @Middle Tennessee-2, Louisiana Tech-6, @FIU-2, @Liberty-3
Overview: Western Kentucky has played no teams in the tournament field. At some point it was established that no team in that situation had ever gone on to win a tournament game. That may have changed in recent years but it's still pretty stark. The Hilltoppers only faced one top in Ken Pomeroy's top 100, Louisiana Tech. They lost that game (at home) and avoided facing the Bulldogs in the C-USA tournament.
WKU has three starters in double figures (just barely for two of them). Don McHenry leads with 15.2ppg.
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Game Analysis: While both teams play fast on offense, there will be a tempo clash as Western Kentucky's #4-paced offense confront Marquette playing the #361-paced defense. Will the Hilltoppers fire off shots as quick as they usually do or will they be held in check? I have never seen any data or studies about what happens in this situation typically. I would think that if an offense is determined to play fast, they will play fast. You can't stop someone from shooting the ball if they're determined. Anyway.
I can't really see WKU imposing their will when they're on offense. They can jack up all the shots they want but they have to make them (they don't shoot that well) or get the rebound. Marquette doesn't rebound well, so they might get some 2nd opportunities. They turn the ball over a lot though and Marquette is on that (#20 in steals).
On the other side of the court things will be fast, period. Marquette shoots very well but WKU's defense isn't terrible, and they rebound well (Marquette doesn't, on offense or defense).
Ultimately I see too many Marquette steals leading to fast break points, and too many missed shots by Western Kentucky, and Marquette just being too good. But you never know—there's a 15-seed upset every year now it seems, and never any warning (St. Peters vs. Kentucky was a rare exception).
Vegas Line:
Marquette by 14 1/2
Power rating: spread
Marquette by 16.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Marquette: 88.1%
Western Kentucky: 11.9%
No big discrepancy in the spread vs. Power ratings here, and Marquette's odds to win are roughly in line with the history for 2-seeds (93%), and that's probably headed down since the last 3 years the win percentage has been just 75%.
Bottom line: Western Kentucky hasn't faced good teams at all this year, and they're too reliable and consistent to rock the boat enough to beat Marquette. This one should go just as expected, and go by quickly too at a very fast pace.
Final prediction: Marquette 88, Western Kentucky 62
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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