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Iowa State Cyclones
Seed: 2
Record: 27-7
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
South Dakota St. Jackrabbits
Seed: 15
Record: 22-12
Conference: Summit
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 7:35 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Omaha, NE
Channel: truTV
The last time Iowa State was a 2-seed it didn't end well.
Iowa State South Dakota St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #148
Median: #6 Median: #129
Markov: #5 Markov: #137
4-year: #8 4-year: #145
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #134
Offense: #55 Offense: #134
Defense: #1 Defense: #163
BPI: #6 BPI: #152
LRMC: #6 LRMC: #132
Other Measures:
SOS: #40 SOS: #228
Tempo (Offense): #144 Tempo (Offense): #146
Consistency: #288 Consistency: #256
Str + Reliability: #8 Str + Reliability: #162
Str + Potential: #6 Str + Potential: #134
2nd half season: #4 2nd half season: #146
Last 6: #3 Last 6: #75
Injury Mod Rank: #7 Injury Mod Rank: #149
Tourney 4-year: #14 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #55
Iowa State was very nearly a 1-seed; almost everything fell into line for it to happen. But they were still the #2 team in the Big Twelve and the Committee went with North Carolina. But ISU's profile is very much a 1-seed profile. Top six in all the power ratings, #1 in defensive efficiency (can we just start saying #1 in Defense?) Their one weakness is Offense, where they are just outside the top 50. And they are a bit inconsistent, but that's related to their offense.
South Dakota State isn't bad for a 15-seed, but they've got their work cut out for them. They need the element of surprise, and hopefully Iowa State is feeling very confident—too confident—after their big win. The Jackrabbits are definitely peaking at the right time, playing solid and consistent basketball.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (16)Grambling St.+55, (1)Houston+4, @(9)TCU+1, (4)Kansas+4, @(7)Texas+5, (9)TCU+12, (6)Texas Tech+8, (6)BYU+5, =(3)Baylor+14, =(1)Houston+28
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(9)Texas A&M-4, @(6)BYU-15, @(3)Baylor-2, @(1)Houston-8
- Other losses (3): =Virginia Tech-9, @Oklahoma-8, @Kansas St.-7
Overview: Iowa State demonstrated elite defense from the start, the question was would their offense catch up at all? It didn't but that's because their defense went to #1 on Kenpom. They were blowing out overmatched opponents early in the season but when they handed Houston its first loss, people started to wake up to the Cyclones. Still, they went back to sleep until the final wake up call: Iowa State 69, Houston 41, a literal off-the-charts performance.
So what does this mean? I've been comparing it to Xavier's beatdown of #1 St. Joe's in 2004. Xavier ended up feeding off the game and made it to the Elite Eight as a 7-seed. Iowa State is obviously still capable of breakdowns on offense that lead to bad losses (like Kansas State recently). And cockiness might become an issue. Iowa State has a history of losing as a high seed. Though clearly known for their defense, Iowa State has four starters in double figures led by Keshon Gilbert's 13.8ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): (16)Montana St.+28
- Losses to tournament teams (1): (14)Akron-6
- Other losses (11): @Kansas St.-23, =UCF-3, =George Mason-2, Kent St.-9, =Wyoming-13, =Norfolk St.-19, @Weber St.-2, @Denver-19, @Oral Roberts-5, North Dakota St.-OT, @UMKC-5
Overview: South Dakota State was an extremely erratic team all year, then over the last several weeks of the season became one of the more consistent teams you'll find. A team that hadn't put together four wins in a row won their last 8 games and their conference, and with it, an automatic bid. They played just two tournament teams along the way: 14-seed Akron in the opener (an 81-75 home loss) and 16-seed Montana State in game 16, an 89-61 win and probably their best performance of the season.
The Jackrabbits shoot the ball very well (#19 in Effective FG%). Zeke Mayo leads the team with 18.8 ppg and makes 38% of his 3s.
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Game Analysis: Iowa State was famously upset by Howard as a 2-seed in 2001. Of course, none of today's players were alive back then, but they were around when the Cyclones were upset as a 3-seed in 2015. And don't think the Cyclones can't come in overconfident; you would too if you'd just knocked off the #1 team in the country by 29 points. How could a bunch of Jackrabbits beat you?
Overconfidence is how this game could be lost. It's still a long shot, but the recipe is at least there. When people wonder how a 15 vs. 2-seed upset happens, there is usually a sign of overconfidence somewhere. Of course, any 2-seed is going to be confident so the accusation will always be made after the fact.
In terms of the gameplay, SDSU might have trouble holding onto the ball against Iowa State's defense. They shoot the three quite well but Iowa State defends it well. They shoot the 2 well, too. But they have to get the shots off. Iowa State isn't the best 3-point shooting team but the Jackrabbits allow threes.
Vegas Line:
Iowa State by 16 1/2
Power rating: spread
Iowa State by 20.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Iowa State: 90.4%
South Dakota St.: 9.6%
The Cyclones are the obvious favorite here. Iowa State will be playing close to home and have a lot of fan support, but it's only an hour closer than South Dakota State's home.
Bottom line: I don't know much about TJ Otzelberger but he should be reminding these younguns how their Cyclone ancestors lost the big opening round game to a much worse team 23 years ago, and again 9 years ago, and how it runs in a cycle like cicadas. Tell them their history so they don't have to repeat it.
Final prediction: Iowa State 80, South Dakota St. 65
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