All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Arizona Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 25-8
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Long Beach State Beach
Seed: 15
Record: 21-14
Conference: Big West
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 2:00 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Salt Lake City, UT
Channel: TBS
Will lightning strike Arizona two years in a row? Can an outgoing coach lead the Beach to reach the 2nd round?
Arizona Long Beach St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #170
Median: #1 Median: #181
Markov: #7 Markov: #146
4-year: #3 4-year: #168
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #163
Offense: #8 Offense: #145
Defense: #12 Defense: #210
BPI: #5 BPI: #172
LRMC: #3 LRMC: #154
Other Measures:
SOS: #21 SOS: #165
Tempo (Offense): #8 Tempo (Offense): #13
Consistency: #361 Consistency: #111
Str + Reliability: #15 Str + Reliability: #147
Str + Potential: #1 Str + Potential: #188
2nd half season: #8 2nd half season: #160
Last 6: #17 Last 6: #166
Injury Mod Rank: #3 Injury Mod Rank: #157
Tourney 4-year: #15 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #64
Arizona is really one of the best teams in the country, ranking #2 in Strength with a Median performance ranked #1. They're in the top 5 in BPI and LRMC, and #6 in Pomeroy. They're a tough 2-seed, that's for sure. What kept them from being a 1-seed was their inconsistency, which ranks almost dead last—or rather, their Consistency is 2nd to last. They're #2 in Inconsistency! This means that they might be a borderline Sweet Sixteen team if they play erratically, or if they play their best they can win it all.
The problem is that they haven't been as good lately, especially over recent games. Does this leave an opening for Long Beach State to do what Princeton did last year to the Wildcats? Seems unlikely, especially since last year's Princeton team that upset Arizona ranked #111 in Strength while Long Beach is #170, and isn't really playing any better lately than they have all season. What they have is a true Cinderella story with their coach, who "agreed to part ways" with the school days before winning the Big West tournament. And like Arizona, a rapid pace which should make for a lively game no matter what happens.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): @(4)Duke+5, =(9)Michigan St.+6, (14)Colgate+27, (5)Wisconsin+25, (4)Alabama+13, (10)Colorado+47, @(11)Oregon+9, @(10)Colorado+20, (11)Oregon+20
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(1)Purdue-8, =(8)Florida Atlantic-OT, @(7)Washington St.-3, (7)Washington St.-3, =(11)Oregon-8
- Other losses (3): @Stanford-18, @Oregon St.-3, @USC-13
Overview: Arizona started out like gangbusters, beating Duke and Michigan State, then adding Wisconsin and Alabama to their skins list while playing well in lossses to 1-seed Purdue and last year's Final Four team Florida Atlantic. Just 11 games in and the Wildcats had played more good teams than most do in a whole season! But then the erratic play started, as they lost to Stanford 100-81. Of course they followed that by beating Colorado and Utah by a combined 46 points. When they won it was fantastic, but the surprise losses—to Oregon State, twice to Washington State—added up despite continued huge margins when they won. Their last three games tells the whole story: a 78-65 loss to USC, then a 70-49 win over USC, and a 67-59 loss to Oregon.
Arizona plays fast on offense and shoots the three well but not excessively; they have four players in double figures led by Caleb Love's 18.1ppg
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @(16)Montana St.+6
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(5)San Diego St.-12
- Other losses (13): @Portland-5, =Illinois St.-9, =Louisiana-10, Cal St. Northridge-16, @UC San Diego-14, @UC Santa Barbara-9, UC Irvine-11, @Cal St. Bakersfield-OT, @Hawaii-8, Cal St. Fullerton-5, @UC Irvine-21, UC Santa Barbara-2, UC Davis-10
Overview: Long Beach State had a seasons of spurts, starting out 3-4, winning six straight before hitting turbulence to stand at 13-9, then winning five more in a row for an 18-9 record. Seemed pretty good at that point, right? Especially after last year's 17-16 record. But then the Beach lost five straight and that was it: Dan Monson was out as coach after 17 years. Allowed to coach the Big West tournament, something surprising happened: the Beach played three of their best games and won the tournament beating two teams that had beat them by a combined 32 points just a week earlier.
The Beach are obviously running on fumes at this point but they run a fast offense, too, as demonstrated by their five starters in double figures led by Marcus Tsohonis' 17.8.
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Game Analysis: Though their Last 6 games as a whole haven't been very good, Long Beach State has played better over the last three games than Arizona on average. The Wildcats played one great game and two absolute duds, while Long Beach State played three decent ones. The Beach would win two out of three based on that.
But will Arizona keep playing terrible basketball every other outing? And will this be one of those bad outings? It's hard to imagine the Wildcats would let the unthinkable happen two years in a row. Three of this year's starters were on that team and experienced getting eliminated in the first round by an upstart 15-seed. This year's Arizona team is probably better, and this year's opponent isn't nearly as good. Ah, but that Cinderella story...!
Vegas Line:
Arizona by 20 1/2
Power rating: spread
Arizona by 24.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Arizona: 91.5%
Long Beach St.: 8.5%
Arizona's point spread (24 points via the power rating) suggests a much greater than 91.5% winning probability. Normally (literally, normal-ly) that would imply the Wildcats had a 99% chance to win! But Arizona is so inconsistent (remember, #361 out of 362 in Consistency) that they have more outlier downside games which give Long Beach State hope. And also a bigger chance of losing by a lot.
Bottom line: Losing once as a 2-seed should keep you immune for life. Not for life, but at least for the next season.
Final prediction: Arizona 94, Long Beach St. 80
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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