All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 1
Record: 29-4
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Grambling State Tigers
Seed: 16
Record: 21-14
Conference: SWAC
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 7:25pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
On their 7th try this season, Grambling finally beat a team from the tournament field to make the Round of 64.
Purdue Grambling St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #4 Strength: #304
Median: #5 Median: #296
Markov: #3 Markov: #282
4-year: #4 4-year: #288
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #267
Offense: #4 Offense: #297
Defense: #21 Defense: #197
BPI: #3 BPI: #291
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #263
Other Measures:
SOS: #3 SOS: #321
Tempo (Offense): #216 Tempo (Offense): #323
Consistency: #103 Consistency: #189
Str + Reliability: #2 Str + Reliability: #307
Str + Potential: #7 Str + Potential: #294
2nd half season: #5 2nd half season: #251
Last 6: #16 Last 6: #219
Injury Mod Rank: #4 Injury Mod Rank: #271
Tourney 4-year: #10 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #68
The numbers give Purdue as big of an advantage over Grambling State as they did over Fairleigh Dickinson last year. Maybe even bigger! That's not going to console Boilermaker fans over what happened last year. But this year they're among the favorites to win it all, assuming they get past the first round. Grambling is possibly the worst team in the tournament this year; meanwhile Purdue is top 5 in every power rating and derivative. Their only weakness is their recent play (#16) which shouldn't be an issue in this game.
Grambling likes a slow tempo, so they should hold the ball as long as they possibly can; shoot every shot at the last second, to prevent Purdue from getting a big lead. I remember watching games before the shot clock—yes, there was TV back then—and seeing a team hold the ball the entire first half. Thank god for the shot clock.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): (13)Samford+53, (14)Morehead St.+30, =(5)Gonzaga+10, =(2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Marquette+3, =(4)Alabama+6, (2)Arizona+8, (3)Illinois+5, (9)Northwestern+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+6, (9)Michigan St.+6, @(3)Illinois+6, (5)Wisconsin+8, =(9)Michigan St.+5
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(8)Nebraska-16, =(5)Wisconsin-OT
- Other losses (1): @Ohio St.-4
Overview: Purdue has one hell of a résumé, with three 2-seeds (Tennessee, Marquette, and Arizona) among their non-conference wins, the first two on neutral courts. They beat 4-seed Alabama and 5-seed Gonzaga (both underseeded for how good they are), again, on neutral courts. And their best non-conference wins might have been beating 13-seed Samford 98-45 and 14-seed Morehead State 87-57 in their first two games.
The Big Ten is where Purdue suffered all four losses, and to some fairly pedestrian teams: 5-seed Wisconsin, 8-seed Nebraska, 9-seed Northwestern, and NIT pick Ohio State. Two of the four losses were in overtime.
Purdue revolves around Zack Edey, a two time Player of the Year. He puts up 24.4 points and grabs 11.7 rebounds per game. Four other Boilermakers average double figures but he's the man; without him, they'd probably be an 8-seed.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(16)Howard+3
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(10)Colorado-32, @(2)Iowa St.-55, @(7)Dayton-30, @(7)Washington St.-18, @(10)Drake-12, @(7)Florida-39
- Other losses (8): =Delaware St.-8, =Sam Houston St.-18, @Troy-13, @Southeastern Louisiana-1, Texas Southern-2, Arkansas Pine Bluff-16, Alabama A&M-10, @Alabama St.-OT
Overview: Grambling State played a tough schedule early on, including six teams that would ultimately reach the tournament. They lost to 2-seed Iowa State (92-37); 7-seeds Florida (96-57), Dayton (76-46), and Washington State (83-65); and 10-seed Drake (68-56) and Colorado (95-63). That's an average of 31 points. And now they're facing a 1-seed.
Grambling State is led by Kintavious Dozier's 13.1 points per game, but against Montana State it was Jimel Cofer with 19 and Jourdan Smith and Antwan Burnett with 18 each that carried the load.
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Game Analysis: We have to address Purdue's inexplicable loss last year To Fairleigh Dickinson before we go on. If that one can happen, then yes, Grambling State definitely has a chance. There's no way we're giving the Boilermakers a 100% chance to win, nor am I going to say it's impossible like I pretty much did last year.
That said, it's pretty close to impossible that Purdue loses this game, especially now that they know it's possible for them to lose this game.
The year after their loss as a 1-seed, Virginia was down by 14 in the first half of their 16-seed game vs. Gardner-Webb, probably due to flashbacks of the year before. Favored by 22 1/2, they won by 15 in the end, and went on to win the national title.
Vegas Line:
Purdue by 25 1/2
Power rating: spread
Purdue by 32.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Purdue: 99.2%
Grambling St.: 0.8%
The Vegas line for Purdue seems pretty low, like they're thinking the Boilermakers are going to have psychological issues from last year. Purdue is practically playing at home; giving Purdue home court ups their odds to 99.8%. Even last year's Fairleigh Dickinson team—the one I said had zero chance—had a 4.5% chance by the Game-comparison system.
Bottom line: Purdue might struggle early but Grambling lost to lower seeds by an average of 31 points a pop, and this is really just as much of a road game as those were.
Final prediction: Purdue 88, Grambling State 53
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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