All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 1
Record: 27-7
Conference: ACC
vs.
Wagner Seahawks
Seed: 16
Record: 17-15
Conference: Northeast
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 2:45pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Charlotte, NC
Channel: CBS
The Tar Heels begin their quest—postponed last year—for a return to the finals.
North Carolina Wagner
Power Ratings
Strength: #8 Strength: #298
Median: #9 Median: #298
Markov: #6 Markov: #301
4-year: #13 4-year: #297
Pomeroy: #9 Pomeroy: #293
Offense: #24 Offense: #334
Defense: #6 Defense: #171
BPI: #11 BPI: #273
LRMC: #7 LRMC: #287
Other Measures:
SOS: #19 SOS: #349
Tempo (Offense): #36 Tempo (Offense): #357
Consistency: #105 Consistency: #133
Str + Reliability: #6 Str + Reliability: #288
Str + Potential: #14 Str + Potential: #296
2nd half season: #9 2nd half season: #288
Last 6: #7 Last 6: #240
Injury Mod Rank: #12 Injury Mod Rank: #300
Tourney 4-year: #6 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #67
North Carolina isn't the toughest 1-seed; they rank only #8 in Strength, #9 in Pomeroy, and #11 in BPI. LRMC puts them #7. But there has to be a weaker 1-seed and this year when there were three obvious top teams, it falls to the Tar Heels to be that team. Their 4-year Strength rating is reflective of last year's woes. Standing in their way in the first round is Wagner, who is possibly the weakest 16-seed. Their rankings fall to nearly #300 out of 362 teams. Only their offense looks halfway decent. But they are one of the few teams to have won a tournament game so far!
The difference in Schedule Strength is huge, as is the difference in offensive pace these teams prefer. This might be the biggest discrepancy we'll see in the tournament. Both teams are fairly consistent, too, so don't expect UNC to be this year's Purdue (obviously there will never be an expected 16-seed win). Wagner is playing better lately—in the top 250—which makes sense as they won their tournament AND their play-in game.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (2)Tennessee+8, @(6)Clemson+10, @(11)N.C. State+13, (4)Duke+9, @(10)Virginia+10, (11)N.C. State+9, @(4)Duke+5
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(1)Connecticut-11, =(3)Kentucky-4, (6)Clemson-4, =(11)N.C. State-8
- Other losses (3): =Villanova-OT, @Georgia Tech-1, @Syracuse-7
Overview: The best way to look at North Carolina this year is to look at their losses. The first three, to Villanova, 83-81 in overtime, in the Bahamas; to 1-seed UConn (87-76) in New York and to 3-seed Kentucky (87-83) in Atlanta, are not bad performances at all. The next three: at Georgia Tech 74-73; 6-seed Clemson 80-76; and at Syracuse 86-79, are a level down but not awful. The last one: NC State 84-76 in Washington DC. That rates as their worst loss. None of them are that terrible. Most would say the Georgia Tech loss was their worst but it was by a point on the road, that can happen to any team. According to my numbers, UNC has the best "worst game" of any team except Duke.
Now let's talk about their wins: 100-92 over 2-seed Tennessee is by far their best, and in conference they beat Duke a couple times.Their losses are more impressive than their wins! Kind of a weak résumé for a 1-seed, but the choices were slim and Tennessee was one of the "finalists" and the Tar Heels won the head-to-head.
North Carolina plays its usual up-tempo basketball, scoring led by RJ Davis at 21.4 points, and Armando Bacot with 10.2 rebounds per game. The duo are all that's left of the 2022 Final Four team.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(16)Howard+3
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (15): @Fordham-OT, @Rhode Island-16, @Seton Hall-21, @Providence-34, Boston University-14, @Fairfield-12, @LIU-2, @Sacred Heart-5, Merrimack-16, @Central Connecticut-OT, @Stonehill-10, Sacred Heart-10, Central Connecticut-1, @Le Moyne-14, Fairleigh Dickinson-3
Overview: Wagner is in an elite group: it hasn't lost to any tournament team. And as of the other day, they have a win, 71-68, over Howard. They played fairly well, too, in their tournament, but right before that were two terrible losses. Their chart is littered with bad losses, and wins that don't reach very high. Their best: Beating Le Moyne 80-57 in game 20.
The Seahawks boast just two players in double figures, with Melvin Council's 14.8 leading the team. He also leads with 5.7 rebounds per game.
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Game Analysis: It's sort of telling that North Carolina's worst loss—in their final game, to N.C. State—was a better performance than Wagner's play-in game win.
North Carolina's height is going to cause problems for Wagner, who is a very short team. But let's face it, everything about North Carolina should cause problems for Wagner.
Vegas Line:
North Carolina by 24 1/2
Power rating: spread
North Carolina by 27.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
North Carolina: 98.6%
Wagner: 1.4%
This is the biggest blowout of the tournament brewing, and it's mostly due to Wagner being the weakest team in the field (except maybe Grambling). We show UNC an almost 28 point favorite, and that's without considering the in-state location. We could easily just say call it 30 points. Wagner's 1.4% chance to win goes down to 0.8% if we call it home court for North Carolina, but it's a few hours from the Chapel Hill campus so we won't.
Bottom line: North Carolina isn't the strongest 1-seed but Wagner is possibly the weakest 16-seed.
Final prediction: North Carolina 80, Wagner 50
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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