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Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 30-4
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Longwood Lancers
Seed: 16
Record: 21-13
Conference: Big South
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 9:20pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Memphis, TN
Channel: TNT
Houston was demolished in their last game; will there be a hangover to the first round contest?
Houston Longwood
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #160
Median: #2 Median: #143
Markov: #2 Markov: #149
4-year: #1 4-year: #164
Pomeroy: #2 Pomeroy: #157
Offense: #17 Offense: #188
Defense: #2 Defense: #146
BPI: #1 BPI: #140
LRMC: #2 LRMC: #141
Other Measures:
SOS: #13 SOS: #309
Tempo (Offense): #321 Tempo (Offense): #167
Consistency: #125 Consistency: #172
Str + Reliability: #1 Str + Reliability: #152
Str + Potential: #4 Str + Potential: #165
2nd half season: #3 2nd half season: #198
Last 6: #4 Last 6: #106
Injury Mod Rank: #2 Injury Mod Rank: #161
Tourney 4-year: #2 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #58
Houston's season-wide figures are pretty astounding; they're #1 in Strength and BPI, and #2 in Pomeroy and LRMC. For most of the year they were #1 in Defense, and have been top 25 on Offense too. Longwood is pretty good for a 16-seed at #160, with the BPI and LRMC ranking them even higher. Do they have a chance, based on Houston's debacle?
The Cougars do play a slow tempo which theoretically makes an upset more likely (fewer possessions = less chance for team quality to take hold). But neither team is particularly volatile—despite Houston's recent, 1-game volatility—so that's not a big consideration. Longwood has played a lot better recently, though not in the 2nd Half of the Season, which implies they did really well in their tournament (obviously they won it or they wouldn't be here). Let's take a look at the charts.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (16)Stetson+31, =(7)Dayton+14, (9)Texas A&M+4, (6)Texas Tech+23, @(6)BYU+7, @(7)Texas+OT, (7)Texas+21, (2)Iowa St.+8, @(3)Baylor+OT, (4)Kansas+30, =(9)TCU+15, =(6)Texas Tech+23
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Iowa St.-4, @(9)TCU-1, @(4)Kansas-13, =(2)Iowa St.-28
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Now that's what I call a 1-seed résumé: a dozen wins over tournament teams; a handful of losses to tournament teams; and no losses to non-tourney teams. The chart is the chart of a national champion—until that last, worrisome game. What should we make of that? To decide let's take a look back at St. Joseph's of 2004 who had a similar debacle in their final game of the season when ranked #1:
As you can see their final games were rated almost exactly the same; the teams weren't too far off either (St. Joe's was about 5 points lower than Houston, and ranked #2). Houston's drop to the final game looks farther because they were playing even better than St. Joe's right before the big loss (87-67, to #31 Xavier). How did St. Joe's respond in their first game? They were favored to beat 16-seed Liberty (like Longwood, also from the Big South) by 23 points (per the Strength power rating) and they won by 19. The Hawks ended up one bucket shy of the Final Four that year.
Houston's defense (#2 shot defense; #3 in blocked shots; #2 in steals) is the key to their success, but their offense is top-level, too; they play a slower, methodical offense which emphasizes crashing the boards for rebounds, which they need because frankly they don't shoot the ball very well (#229 in effective FG%). Three Cougars average in double figures led by LJ Cryer's 15.3.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(7)Dayton-9
- Other losses (12): @St. Bonaventure-4, @North Carolina Central-9, @Winthrop-OT, Radford-11, @UNC Asheville-4, @USC Upstate-2, Gardner Webb-12, @High Point-17, @Charleston Southern-6, USC Upstate-5, @Radford-6, @Gardner Webb-3
Overview: Longwood has a pretty decent chart for a 16-seed, especially at the end where they beat UNC Asheville 85-59 to win the Big South. Their last game is far better than Houston's last game, so that alone should give them hope. As for the entire season, they only played one tournament team and did fairly well at Dayton, losing 78-69. But for the most part the Big South was actually a step up in schedule strength and the Lancers struggled mightily; they were 2-8 in conference play at one point. But starting with a 20 point win over Winthrop they became a new team and won the Big South tournament, beating top seed High Point twice along the way (the 2nd time on the road, in overtime).
Longwood has three players who average in double figures, led by Walyn Napper's 14.6ppg.
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Game Analysis: If these teams both play like they did in their final game before the tournament, we'll have our 3rd ever 16-seed over 1-seed upset. It's pretty disconcerting when the 16-seed has its best game of the year and the 1-seed their worst game by far. Longwood played an astounding 32 points better than Houston in both of their final games (taking the scores in isolation; another way to calculate this results in a 4-point Longwood win). Either way it was a pretty stark final game for each team.
How much does this carry over? 16-seeds have to have new confidence and hope now that the barrier has been breached, not once but twice.
Let's go back to the 2004 St. Joe's example. It turns out that Liberty, St. Joe's 16-seed foe, also had an astounding final game too, far better than any they had played, and rating a crazy 42 points better than St. Joe's last performance. If I had seen those charts in 2004 I might have been picking the first-ever 16-seed upset win, figuring that St. Joe's had to be mentally crushed by their big loss and Liberty sky high over beating High Point in the Big South final 89-44. If there was any team that would think they had a chance to beat a 1-seed, it was Liberty in 2004.
Here's a summary of the game from the New York Times:
Jameer Nelson knew one way to exorcise the bad karma lingering from St. Joseph's lone loss, last week to Xavier. Shoot it away. In the first 10 minutes against 16th-seeded Liberty, Nelson made 6 of 8 shots and scored 16 points as the Hawks raced to a 46-26 halftime lead. ''The loss is over with,'' said Nelson, who finished with 33 points.
Vegas Line:
Houston by 24 1/2
Power rating: spread
Houston by 24.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Houston: 94.5%
Longwood: 5.5%
Apparently the oddsmakers figure Houston is going to take out their frustrations on Longwood, as their line is even a bit higher than the Strength power rating's spread. Normally it's about 10% lower, which would imply 21 1/2 points.
Houston's huge loss to Iowa State gave every team hope, and in the game-comparison system it resulted in bumping Longwood's odds from 3.4% to 5.5%. Before Longwood's final game—their best of the season—their odds to beat Houston were just 2.1%. What a difference a couple of games makes!
Bottom line: I'm going to follow history's pattern and give Houston the win, and assume they'll take control from the start. Credit has to be given to Longwood for how well they played in their final game, so I use the Last Six Games margin of 18 points.
Final prediction: Houston 69, Longwood 51
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