All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 4
Record: 24-11
Conference: SEC
vs.
Clemson Tigers
Seed: 6
Record: 24-11
Conference: ACC
Date: Saturday, March 30
Time: 8:49pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Channel: TBS
Neither of these teams should be here for various reasons, but here they are.
Alabama Clemson
Power Ratings
Strength: #10 Strength: #20
Median: #11 Median: #18
Markov: #23 Markov: #16
Pomeroy: #14 Pomeroy: #19
Offense: #4 Offense: #24
Defense: #104 Defense: #33
BPI: #12 BPI: #20
LRMC: #18 LRMC: #35
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #3 Tempo (Offense): #173
Consistency: #356 Consistency: #251
2nd half season: #17 2nd half season: #19
Last 6: #65 Last 6: #17
For the top-line numbers (Strength, Pomeroy, BPI, LRMC) both these teams don't look out of place in the Elite Eight. They're within striking distance, with Alabama top ten or at least close, Clemson top 20 or at least close. But for the Final Four? Clemson already looks like a long shot, and Alabama has a couple of very prohibitive numbers: Their #104 defense, and their #356 Consistency ranking.
A few teams have made the Final Four with a defense ranking worse than #100 on Selection Sunday, but by the end of the season, nope (Miami was #99 last year). So you can have a >100 defense and make the Final Four as long as you are playing better defense during your run to the Final Four. Alabama was #112 on Selection Sunday so they are improving...very slowly. And they actually slipped back from #101 to #104 in their last game. The Tide still aren't playing top 100 defense in a meaningful way. And their Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI rankings are all actually down a spot since the tournament began.
The inconsistency problem is something that makes more sense from a Selection Sunday vantage point. Can a very inconsistent team win four tournament games in a row, avoiding a downside game? Odds say no. But now that they've won three of those games, much of that sentiment is moot. They only have to win one more game. So in a sense, Alabama's inconsistency applies a lot more to the question "can they win it all while being so inconsistent?" This applies to Clemson, too, to a lesser extent.
Alabama's "last 6 games" ranking is still affected by their late-season injuries; over the last 3 games they've been around #10, which is average for them.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (14)Morehead St.+32, =(11)Oregon+8, (6)South Carolina+27, @(8)Mississippi St.+8, (4)Auburn+4, (8)Mississippi St.+32, (9)Texas A&M+25, (7)Florida+OT, =(13)Charleston+13, =(12)Grand Canyon+11, =(1)North Carolina+2
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(1)North Carolina+2
- Losses to tournament teams (10): (6)Clemson-8, =(1)Purdue-6, @(3)Creighton-3, @(2)Arizona-13, @(2)Tennessee-20, @(4)Auburn-18, @(3)Kentucky-22, (2)Tennessee-7, @(7)Florida-18, =(7)Florida-14
- Other losses (1): =Ohio St.-11
Overview: For all the games they won the Tide didn't beat a team higher than a 4-seed. They lost to 1-seed Purdue, 2-seed Arizona, 2-seed Tennessee (twice), 3-seed Kentucky, 3-seed Creighton, 6-seed Clemson, and 7-seed Florida (twice). No wonder their SOS is #4 in the nation. If they'd won just a few of those they would have a more proper seed for their level of play. Which begs the question, can Alabama win the big game? For right now though, they have to win the small game! It's telling that none of the teams they beat reached the Sweet Sixteen. Well, Alabama won two "small" games, then they won the really big one over North Carolina.
The peaks and valleys of the season can be seen above, and the decline at the end is precipitous. #5 scorer Latrell Wrightsell (9.0ppg) was out from game 26 (overtime Florida win at home), through the Tennessee home loss (game 29). #4 scorer Rylan Griffen (11.0) missed the Arkansas home win. Both played 20 minutes in the 102-88 loss to Florida in the final game.
Mark Sears leads the team with a 21.1 per game average. He was recently named a Wooden Award finalist. Sears had 30 points in the win over Charleston in the first round and 26 against Grand Canyon in the Round of 32. Alabama finally got the BIG WIN they've been looking for all season, beating 1-seed North Carolina 89-87 with Grant Nelson scoing 24 points including 10 of 13 free throws.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(12)UAB+1, (10)Boise St.+17, @(4)Alabama+8, (6)South Carolina+5, =(9)TCU+8, @(1)North Carolina+4, =(11)New Mexico+21, =(3)Baylor+8, =(2)Arizona+5
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): @(4)Alabama+8, @(1)North Carolina+4, =(2)Arizona+5
- Losses to tournament teams (4): (1)North Carolina-10, @(4)Duke-1, (10)Virginia-1, (11)N.C. State-1
- Other losses (7): @Memphis-2, @Miami FL-13, @Virginia Tech-15, Georgia Tech-OT, @Notre Dame-7, @Wake Forest-5, =Boston College-21
Overview: Clemson started 9-0 with wins over 12-seed UAB, 10-seed Boise State, 4-seed Alabama, almost-seeded Pitt, 6-seed South Carolina, and 9-seed TCU. In nine games! But they lost 7 of their next 12 games and their only other tourney-team win was when they beat 1-seed North Carolina 80-76 in Chapel Hill. In fact, that was their only win over a top 70 Pomeroy team other than Pitt in the calendar year 2024. They basically beat up on the bad ACC teams and lost to the good ones. Good thing they had that pre-conference schedule!
The Tigers are led on offense by center PJ Hall who scores 18.8 points per game and is 2nd on the team with 6.7 rebounds. It was Chase Hunter who spearheaded the win over New Mexico with his 21 points; he did the same with 20 in the upset win over Baylor. Hunter made it 3 for 3 as leading scorer by putting up 18 against Arizona on 8 of 10 shooting from 2-point range.
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Game Analysis: Neither of these teams should make the Final Four. Alabama is far too inconsistent to win four tough games in a row, and their defense isn't good enough. And Clemson is just not on the Final Four radar, never showing much potential to be more than a Sweet Sixteen level team at best. If Arizona hits even 25% instead of 18% on threes, we aren't talking about the Tigers.
Yet one of these teams is going to make the Final Four. The matchup is pretty even overall, by way of each offense having a big advantage over the other team's defensive play.
First there's Alabama with the ball: #4 in the nation, vs. Clemson's #33 defensive play. Alabama shoots the ball far better than the Tigers defend, and Clemson doesn't force turnovers. Alabama rebounds better here, too. The one Clemson edge? Blocked shots, where Alabama is very vulnerable.
When #24 offense Clemson has the ball they are up against Alabama's #104 defense, so as you would expect there is a lot of opportunity here. It's mostly on 2-point shots where Clemson is much better than 3s relatively, and 2-pointers is where Alabama is bad on defense. Alabama doesn't force turnovers much, or rebound well, and they foul a lot.
It's worth noting that every tournament game Clemson has played is better than every tournament game Alabama has played (Google Charts is having some issues so you might not be able to see them). Alabama is playing to their average, while Clemson is exceeding theirs by a lot. Whether this trend continues with these two erratic teams, we can't say.
Clemson won the previous meeting this season between the teams, 85-77 in November. Clemson had 7 blocked shots, and Alabama shot very poorly from 2-point range which was unexpected. The Tide rebounded well, though. The key was Clemson's 51% 3-point shooting, however, something they can't count on replicating.
Vegas Line:
Alabama by 3 1/2
Power rating: spread
Alabama by 4.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Clemson: 41.8%
Alabama: 58.2%
This is a very rare matchup, 4-seed vs. 6-seed. It's only happened three times in the 64+ team era, and the 4-seed won twice.
Bottom line: Almost every year there's a team that "shouldn't be there" in the Final Four, a team that was unremarkable throughout the entire season but somehow made it, a team that was under everyone's radar. They weren't high in the metrics and underperformed for a lower seed, they didn't "catch fire" late and make people take notice, they just played ball, got in the tournament, and won 4 games. Alabama doesn't fit that mold, as they've shown potential and a very high Strength rating at times. Clemson never looked anything other than average and mundane, which is why I think they make the perfect unexpected Final Four team.
Final prediction: Clemson 95, Alabama 85
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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