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UConn Huskies
Seed: 1
Record: 34-3
Conference: Big East
vs.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 3
Record: 29-8
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Saturday, March 30
Time: 6:09pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Boston, MA
Channel: TBS
Ok, so UConn is not 2017 Villanova. Or any of the intervening defending national champs, none of whom made the Elite Eight. But will they be 2007 Florida?
UConn Illinois
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #11
Median: #1 Median: #13
Markov: #1 Markov: #9
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #10
Offense: #1 Offense: #2
Defense: #6 Defense: #84
BPI: #2 BPI: #11
LRMC: #1 LRMC: #9
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #296 Tempo (Offense): #169
Consistency: #309 Consistency: #11
2nd half season: #1 2nd half season: #13
Last 6: #1 Last 6: #9
UConn is resembling a runaway freight train, the only thing that can stop them is derailing. They've now reached #1 in our Strength power rating, joining their #1 rating in Pomeroy and LRMC. Only the BPI is still a holdout (sticking with Houston, by quite a margin too). They've even taken over #1 on offense from Illinois, who fell to #2 on Pomeroy despite beating the #1 defensive team, Iowa State, to reach the Elite Eight.
The biggest difference between the teams is Consistency, which Illinois has and UConn doesn't. It's probably allowed Illinois to get this far, but inconsistency sure hasn't hurt UConn yet as it's basically all been on the upside. There's also defensive play where UConn is a solid top ten and Illinois is just #84. According to KenPom lore, you can't have a defense worse than #25 to reach the Final Four. Ok, that was formed using post-tournament data. And it hasn't been true for like, forever. VCU made the Final Four in 2011 and finished with the #78 defense (start: #126). Last year Miami wrecked that heuristic by starting with the #133 defense and making the Final Four; they ended up at #99. Maybe the new lore is: you can't make the Final Four without having a defense that finishes in the top 100. So Illinois has nothing to worry about!
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(7)Texas+10, =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, =(16)Stetson+39, =(9)Northwestern+17, (5)San Diego St.+30
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (7): =(1)North Carolina+11, @(5)Gonzaga+13, (3)Creighton+14, (2)Marquette+28, @(2)Marquette+7, =(2)Marquette+16, (5)San Diego St.+30
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(4)Kansas-4, @(3)Creighton-19
- Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-15
Overview: Just like we noted with Marquette, the Big East teams are going to show very few tournament wins because all the Big East teams got left out. It's basically the Big East Big Three and whoever you played in non-conference, so a 1-seed like UConn has just seven big wins. One of those was 1-seed North Carolina though, and 5-seed Gonzaga is always impressive. They lost to 4-seed Kansas, and even to Seton Hall (one of the bracket-busted Big East teams). Note that of their 7 original tourney wins, six now count as wins over the Sweet Sixteen.
UConn is looking to repeat as champs and everyone is falling over themselves comparing them to 2007 Florida, but as I've said, the danger is them resembling 2017 Villanova. The 2017 Wildcats, trying to repeat their 2016 championship, entered the 2nd round 32-3 and lost to 8-seed Wisconsin. Will UConn fall in the 2nd round to a middle-seeded Big Ten team as well? The answer was no, and neither did they fall in the Sweet Sixteen, which no other defending national champ has made it past—since 2007 Florida.
The Huskies are led by Tristen Newton's 15.2 ppg and four others average in double figures. Donovan Clingan scored 20 points in UConn's 91-52 first round win over Stetson. The Huskies didn't slow down at all against Northwestern, winning easily 73-58 behind Newton's 20 points. The Huskies simply blew away San Diego State, 82-52, as Cam Spencer led with 18.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (14)Oakland+11, =(8)Florida Atlantic+9, (14)Colgate+17, (9)Northwestern+30, (9)Michigan St.+3, (8)Nebraska+OT, @(5)Wisconsin+8, =(8)Nebraska+11, =(5)Wisconsin+6, =(14)Morehead St.+16, =(11)Duquesne+16, =(2)Iowa St.+3
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(2)Iowa St.+3
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (2)Marquette-7, @(2)Tennessee-7, @(1)Purdue-5, @(9)Northwestern-OT, @(9)Michigan St.-8, (1)Purdue-6
- Other losses (2): Maryland-9, @Penn St.-1
Overview: How is this for a chart? Doesn't that just say, #11 in the nation in consistency? It's like a picket fence. A few aberrations, yes—like the 104-71 win over Fairleigh Dickinson which causes a spike in game 13, and the game 16 loss to Maryland at home, one of only two to non-tournament teams this year for the Illini. This is the chart of team that is consistent enough to not have a dud game kick them out of the tournament early. They've proven that now by reaching the Sweet Sixteen, but they haven't beaten another Sweet Sixteen team.
Illinois is great on offense, but not nearly as great on the other side of the court. Four players average in double figures led by Terrence Shannon's 23.0 ppg. He had 26 against Morehead State in the opener and 30 against Duquesne in the 2nd round. Shannon scored 29 as Illinois led the whole way—but just barely—and beat Iowa State, 72-69 to reach the Elite Eight.
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Game Analysis: This game will pit the top two offensive teams in college basketball at the moment. As well as one of the best defenses, and a very mediocre defense.
How does Illinois win this game? You got me. I've been betting (not literally) against UConn for a couple of games now, thinking their time was due for an upset, for that bad game they've had maybe 2 or 3 times this year. And it could happen—it might be the only way Illinois wins.
Because Illinois is not inconsistent enough to have the upside game necessary to beat UConn. Even when Terrence Shannon has 30 points, the rest of the team plays average basketball. When he doesn't, they pick up the slack so that the team still plays ok. But they never all seem to take the team to greater heights, rarely even to the heights of UConn's average game. And never to the level UConn is playing at right now.
So it will take a UConn de-railment. They have to beat themselves by having a downside performance that opens the door for the Illini. And looking at the matchup, Illinois seems tailor-made for UConn. The Illini might rebound well on offense or get to the line a bit. But there's little else even their top-notch offense does better than UConn's defense. And on the other side of the court it's all UConn.
Short of Terrence Shannon having over 30 points—about 50%—and UConn having a terrible game—about 10%—I don't see Illinois winning. That gives them a 5% chance. The numbers below will give a more realistic assessement based on the whole season, but for how UConn is playing over the last 10 games or so, 5% is probably about right.
Vegas Line:
UConn by 8 1/2
Power rating: spread
UConn by 8.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UConn: 73.3%
Illinois: 26.7%
Vegas is clearly giving UConn home court advantage, as their line exceeds the Strength power rating margin which does give the Huskies home court. Only UConn's inconsistency limits their odds to win at 73%, which is still a lot higher than the historical 64% for 1-seeds vs. 3-seeds. Without home court we would give UConn a 66% chance to win, so that matches up with history pretty well.
Bottom line: UConn can only beat themselves with a bad game, which just hasn't happened when I thought it would. So I'm a convert I guess. Does this mean the Illini have a chance, since I've been wrong about UConn's luck running out so far?
Final prediction: UConn 83, Illinois 70
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