All previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule
Mississippi St. Bulldogs
Seed: 8
Record: 21-13
Conference: SEC
vs.
Michigan St. Spartans
Seed: 9
Record: 19-14
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 12:15 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Charlotte, NC
Channel: CBS
Michigan State ranks a lot better than their success on the court this year, which is why they're a 9-seed and technically the underdog here.
Mississippi St. Michigan St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #33 Strength: #17
Median: #34 Median: #17
Markov: #20 Markov: #19
4-year: #32 4-year: #21
Pomeroy: #30 Pomeroy: #18
Offense: #60 Offense: #57
Defense: #20 Defense: #8
BPI: #28 BPI: #18
LRMC: #29 LRMC: #19
Other Measures:
SOS: #24 SOS: #9
Tempo (Offense): #241 Tempo (Offense): #206
Consistency: #258 Consistency: #152
Str + Reliability: #42 Str + Reliability: #16
Str + Potential: #34 Str + Potential: #22
2nd half season: #38 2nd half season: #32
Last 6: #32 Last 6: #39
Injury Mod Rank: #33 Injury Mod Rank: #18
Tourney 4-year: #31 Tourney 4-year: #22
Despite being the 9-seed Michigan State outranks the Bulldogs pretty much everywhere, and often by a lot. The difference is that Mississippi State didn't underperform in the Win-Loss column like the Spartans did. The question is whether this is just bad luck or a character flaw with this year's model. The Spartans boast top 20 Strength, Pomeroy, BPI, and LRMC, while the Bulldogs hover around #30. The one exception is our Markov Chain implementation, which has the teams pretty dead even (which is odd since the LRMC shows the same spacing as the other power ratings).
They're also pretty even on Offense, but on Defense there's a big difference, but it's the strength of both squads. Look for a low scoring game, particularly since both teams play a bit slow on offense. Recent play does favor the Bulldogs, however, and Michigan State has seemed particularly sluggish lately.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =(7)Washington St.+12, =(9)Northwestern+9, (2)Tennessee+5, (4)Auburn+6, =(2)Tennessee+17
- Losses to tournament teams (10): @(6)South Carolina-6, (4)Alabama-8, @(3)Kentucky-13, @(7)Florida-9, @(4)Alabama-32, (3)Kentucky-2, @(4)Auburn-15, @(9)Texas A&M-6, (6)South Carolina-OT, =(4)Auburn-7
- Other losses (3): @Georgia Tech-8, Southern-1, @Mississippi-4
Overview: Mississippi State had their best game of the year in the SEC tournament when they beat 2-seed Tennessee 73-56—their 2nd win over the Volunteers. But like most of the year, the up-and-down team came back down. The big win was preceded by a late 4-game slide—which in turn followed a 5-game win streak. This is a hard team to predict, and their better "recent play" score comes mostly from that one big win. Josh Hubbard and Tolu Smith combine to average 32 points for the Bulldogs.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (3)Baylor+24, (14)Oakland+17, (3)Illinois+8, (9)Northwestern+4
- Losses to tournament teams (10): (12)James Madison-OT, =(4)Duke-9, =(2)Arizona-6, (5)Wisconsin-13, @(8)Nebraska-7, @(9)Northwestern-14, @(3)Illinois-3, @(5)Wisconsin-15, @(1)Purdue-6, =(1)Purdue-5
- Other losses (4): @Minnesota-3, Iowa-7, Ohio St.-3, @Indiana-1
Overview: Ranked #4 in the pre-season, the Spartans haven't lived up to that billing by a long shot, from the opening overtime loss to James Madison. There was a brief stretch where they looked great, as they beat Baylor 88-64 (game 10) through the 92-61 win over Penn State (game 14), but they never hit their stride consistently. They never seemed to be motivated, as seen in their final stretch of games where they tried their best to play away their NCAA bid by losing 4 of 5 before the Big Ten tournament. Four Spartans average double figures led by Tyson Walker's 18.2, but defense is the strong suit of the team.
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Game Analysis: If Mississippi State plays like they did against Tennessee they can beat anyone. And Michigan State is pretty vulnerable this year as their record reflects. But what will happen in this one, single game? That's a tough question. Are the Spartans ready to take things seriously and make a run, or will they fizzle out the way they have most of the year?
The easy way to look at this game would be to say on offense they're about even but that the Spartans have the more elite defense. The Spartans cause a lot of turnovers, and the Bulldogs are vulnerable to that; meanwhile the converse is not true of the Spartan offense. They also block a lot of shots, another problem with the Bulldog offense. On the other hand, while both teams are mediocre shooting teams, Mississippi State is much better at offensive rebounding.
But if the game is close—which it really could be, as it should be quite low scoring—Michigan State is better from the line.
Vegas Line:
Michigan St. by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Michigan St. by 2.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Mississippi St.: 44.0%
Michigan St.: 56.0%
Michigan State is a slight favorite as a 9-seed, not unheard of as the all-time odds for 9-seeds is 51.3%.
Bottom line: It's definitely troublesome that Michigan State's best games were played 3 months ago. But that speaks more to their lack of long-term prospects than to this game. Mississippi State's recent peak is deceptive and might be their last hurrah. Though it would hardly be a shock to see the Spartans sleepwalk through this game like they have much of the season, they're built for a defensive battle and should grind out the win.
Final prediction: Michigan St. 65, Mississippi St. 61
More previews: click here for the full 2024 NCAA tournament schedule.
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