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BYU Cougars
Seed: 6
Record: 23-10
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Duquesne Dukes
Seed: 11
Record: 24-11
Conference: Atlantic 10
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 12:40 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Omaha, NE
Channel: truTV
It's a 6 vs. an 11, but is it really? Or are 10-seeds the new 11-seeds due to the bubble bust?
BYU Duquesne
Power Ratings
Strength: #11 Strength: #86
Median: #11 Median: #81
Markov: #17 Markov: #76
4-year: #20 4-year: #99
Pomeroy: #16 Pomeroy: #86
Offense: #11 Offense: #166
Defense: #48 Defense: #28
BPI: #17 BPI: #89
LRMC: #17 LRMC: #69
Other Measures:
SOS: #47 SOS: #95
Tempo (Offense): #59 Tempo (Offense): #202
Consistency: #271 Consistency: #83
Str + Reliability: #13 Str + Reliability: #70
Str + Potential: #12 Str + Potential: #98
2nd half season: #23 2nd half season: #90
Last 6: #18 Last 6: #46
Injury Mod Rank: #14 Injury Mod Rank: #85
Tourney 4-year: #34 (of 68) Tourney 4-year: #56
It's a great matchup when BYU has the ball with their near-top-10 offense against the Dukes' near-top-25 defense. On the other side of the court it's less stellar as Duquesne's offensive efficiency is basically Quad 3 level. There's a tempo clash brewing too as the Cougars want to play fast while the Dukes keep it pretty steady. And it's also a story of Duquesne's consistent play while BYU is up and down.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (5)San Diego St.+9, =(11)N.C. State+9, (2)Iowa St.+15, (7)Texas+12, (3)Baylor+7, @(4)Kansas+8, (9)TCU+12
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(3)Baylor-9, @(6)Texas Tech-7, (1)Houston-7, @(2)Iowa St.-5, =(6)Texas Tech-14
- Other losses (5): @Utah-4, Cincinnati-11, @Oklahoma-16, @Oklahoma St.-10, @Kansas St.-10
Overview: BYU had a great season but a lot of their best work was done early, and once the Big Twelve season started they were much more erratic—and not as good. They still had their moments, like the 15-point win over 2-seed Iowa State, and all of their losses to tournament teams were close games—until the loss to Texas Tech, which ended a mini-run where it looked like the Cougars were recapturing their early-season form. Interestingly BYU shoots a lot of three's—#2 in the nation in shot selection—while making only about 35% of them. Seven cougars average 9 or more points led by Jaxson Robinson's 13.8ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =(13)Charleston+18, (15)Saint Peter's+9, =(7)Dayton+8
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(8)Nebraska-10, (7)Dayton-10, @(7)Dayton-16
- Other losses (8): Princeton-3, =Santa Clara-8, @Massachusetts-19, @Loyola Chicago-5, Richmond-2, @Saint Joseph's-2, Davidson-13, @Fordham-12
Overview: Duquesne hit a rough patch mid-season but if their recent play is any indication they have made their way out of the ditch. The Dukes are great on defense, causing turnovers, blocking shots, and holding teams to a low percentage, though they don't rebound all that effectively. The offense is a different story, though they do boast two players averaging over 15ppg each, Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III.
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Game Analysis: BYU plays fast on offense, ranking 59th in possession length, while Duquesne's defensive pace is #311—something's gotta give. BYU likes to take a quick 3 even though they shoot it inconsistently. Duquesne likes to bottle up a teams for the full clock and force a bad shot. It will be an interesting battle when BYU has the ball. The Cougars have a big advantage in 2-point shooting and rebounding still.
Duquesne's offensive is pretty bad and comes down to basically two players who combine for about 32 points per game. All BYU has to do is shut down those two and they coast. The trouble is, sometimes teams like that are a problem—they have two good players and it somehow makes the offense scrappy and hard to deal with, even though you know where the ball is going. They're both senior guards, too, which always makes things worse. BYU's guards will have the height advantage though.
Vegas Line:
BYU by 9 1/2
Power rating: spread
BYU by 11.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
BYU: 79.5%
Duquesne: 20.5%
BYU has a pretty big odds advantage considering the 11-seed wins about 39% of the time, and since 2011 it's over 50/50 (25 of 48, to be exact). But BYU is pretty underseeded given their power ratings, and 11-seeds are usually stronger than Duquesne. These odds stack up more like a 4 vs. 13-seed.
Bottom line: I think more trouble will be caused by Duquesne's "terrible" offense than their solid defense, which BYU should be able to handle if they switch their style a bit to go for shots inside the 3-point line. I always take the 11-seeds, but this year's 11-seeds are more like 12-seeds and this game is more like a 4 vs. a 13-seed.
Final prediction: BYU 90, Duquesne 79
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