Almost exactly two weeks to Selection Sunday 2024 so let's look at conference bid totals. I'll compare the percentage odds with the number of teams currently "in" the projected seeding. Most of the time these numbers are the same but some conferences have many teams on the bubble. Of course if there are upsets in certain leagues everything can change, so we'll look at which conferences are most likely to deflate the bubble with an upset in the conference tournament. Everything here uses of course, the Dance Chance.
Projected conference totals
| Conf | At-large Frac | At-large Total |
Total Bids |
| B12 | 7.69 | 8 | 9 |
| SEC | 5.82 | 6 | 7 |
| B10 | 4.80 | 5 | 6 |
| MWC | 4.73 | 5 | 6 |
| ACC | 4.47 | 4 | 5 |
| BE | 3.99 | 4 | 5 |
| P12 | 2.35 | 2 | 3 |
| WCC | 0.91 | 1 | 2 |
| MVC | 0.62 | 1 | 2 |
| Amer | 0.42 | 0 | 1 |
| A10 | 0.11 | 0 | 1 |
| SunBelt | 0.08 | 0 | 1 |
Twelve conferences have a shot at multiple bids, but only 9 will probably see that come true. The At-Large Fraction is the leftover "odds" once the top team is removed.
In order, the conferences with the most bids:
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 1. Houston B12 25-3 27-4 100.0 6. Iowa St. B12 22-6 24-7 100.0 10. Kansas B12 21-7 22-9 100.0 12. Baylor B12 20-8 22-9 100.0 14. BYU B12 20-8 22-9 100.0 22. TCU B12 19-9 21-10 95.1 36. Texas Tech B12 19-9 21-10 79.0 37. Texas B12 18-10 20-11 74.4 39. Oklahoma B12 19-9 20-11 70.7 59. Cincinnati B12 16-12 18-13 26.0 66. Kansas St. B12 17-11 18-13 11.6 76. UCF B12 15-12 16-14 1.9
The Big Twelve (9) is set to have 9 teams in the Big Dance and currently, that's how many we show. It's a pretty strict dividing line between in (Oklahoma) and out (Cincinnati). There's still time for that to change but for the most part, the teams underwater now are going to have to hope for a very strong conference tournament run.
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 5. Tennessee SEC 22-6 24-7 100.0 8. Alabama SEC 20-8 22-9 100.0 15. Auburn SEC 21-7 24-7 100.0 17. Kentucky SEC 20-8 22-9 >99.9 29. Florida SEC 20-8 22-9 87.1 34. South Carolina SEC 23-5 24-7 81.5 35. Mississippi St. SEC 19-9 20-11 80.2 62. Mississippi SEC 19-9 21-10 20.3 73. Texas A&M SEC 15-13 16-15 5.3 84. LSU SEC 15-13 17-14 <0.1 85. Georgia SEC 15-13 16-15 <0.1
The SEC (7) has seven teams in, and that's how we see it going on Selection Sunday. Again, a harsh dividing line (even more harsh) separates Mississippi State (80%) and Ole Miss (20%).
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 2. Purdue B10 25-3 27-4 100.0 19. Illinois B10 21-7 22-9 99.5 26. Wisconsin B10 18-10 19-12 89.6 33. Nebraska B10 20-9 21-10 82.9 38. Northwestern B10 20-8 22-9 72.0 42. Michigan St. B10 17-11 19-12 60.3 54. Ohio St. B10 17-12 18-13 37.5 60. Iowa B10 17-12 18-13 23.7 71. Minnesota B10 17-11 19-12 7.5 81. Maryland B10 15-14 16-15 0.1 83. Rutgers B10 15-13 16-15 0.1
The Big Ten (6) has six teams in which is also their projected total, but is the first conference to have bubble teams with more than a 50% aggregate shot. Ohio State, Iowa, and Minnesota together show about a 2 in 3 chance of making it, so one of them might push forward in the next few weeks to get a bid—but overall odds say if that happens, it will likely be at the expense of someone else, likely Michigan State or Northwestern. And those teams aren't locks yet. So the Big Ten could end up with 5, or 7, but probably six.
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 18. San Diego St. MWC 22-7 23-8 99.9 20. Nevada MWC 23-6 25-7 95.8 21. Utah St. MWC 23-5 26-6 95.3 23. New Mexico MWC 21-7 23-8 94.3 27. Boise St. MWC 20-8 22-9 89.3 30. Colorado St. MWC 20-9 22-9 86.1 72. UNLV MWC 17-10 18-12 5.7
Mountain West (6): Not much dithering here, they show six teams in and that's what they're going to get. It's hard to imagine the Committee cutting one of their six bids, as each team has defeated many of the others in this group. It would be an almost arbitrary decision to exclude one so that the conference "doesn't have too many bids". Of course, that's been done before: 2006's Missouri Valley got 4 bids but that "was enough" so Missouri State got sent to the NIT with a #21 RPI. It would take a similar decision to leave one of these teams out, and it might be any of them that gets the axe. The Bracket Matrix has all six in right now but some are pretty low. Watch the first week of the MWC tournament: any team that loses in the first round might be in trouble—other than San Diego State, who has special status for proving themselves "legit" last year.
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 7. North Carolina ACC 22-6 24-7 100.0 13. Duke ACC 22-6 24-7 100.0 16. Clemson ACC 20-8 22-9 >99.9 31. Wake Forest ACC 18-10 20-11 85.2 40. Virginia ACC 21-8 22-9 61.1 48. Pittsburgh ACC 18-10 20-11 49.1 56. Syracuse ACC 19-10 20-11 30.5 68. Virginia Tech ACC 15-13 17-14 10.4 74. N.C. State ACC 17-11 18-13 5.0 86. Florida St. ACC 15-13 16-15 <0.1 92. Miami FL ACC 15-14 16-15 <0.1
The ACC (5) has the tightest race on the bubble, and their number of at-large teams is placed at almost exactly 4.5, but they miss by a hair and end up with 5 teams total by the odds. Right now we have Pittsburgh as the First Team Out, so the ACC could easily have six. On the other hand, Virginia is hardly a lock so that could become four just as clearly. Pitt is looking so 50/50 at the moment that we should probably say the ACC gets 5 teams and maybe Pitt. Of course that would have to take away another conference's bid, and that doesn't account for bubble shrinkage from bid stealing conference tournaments. That's why five is still the most likely number for the ACC.
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 3. Connecticut BE 25-3 27-4 100.0 9. Marquette BE 22-6 23-8 100.0 11. Creighton BE 21-8 22-9 100.0 45. Seton Hall BE 18-10 20-11 54.1 49. St. John's BE 17-12 19-12 44.6 50. Providence BE 18-10 19-12 42.6 52. Villanova BE 16-12 18-14 38.7 64. Butler BE 16-13 18-13 13.6 80. Xavier BE 14-14 16-15 0.1
The Big East (5) is the first conference where their projected total (5) differs from what they currently show (4) in the seedings. And we can see why, as the Big East has a butt-load of teams on the bubble. Seton Hall is at 54%, and St. John's and Providence are in the First Four Out and Villanova is right there too. It's possible that all these teams make it and the Big East gets seven bids; it's also possible that they all falter and only the three "locks" (UConn, Marquette, and Creighton) go to the Dance and the NIT is filled with Big East teams. The odds show five teams making it, so after the Big Three, it's likely that two of the next four end up in the seedings. But the conference might have more than one Play-in team to go with their 1- and 3-seeds.
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 4. Arizona P12 22-6 25-6 100.0 24. Washington St. P12 22-7 24-7 90.5 41. Colorado P12 19-9 21-10 60.6 47. Utah P12 17-11 19-12 51.0 57. Oregon P12 19-9 20-11 28.7 77. Washington P12 16-13 17-14 1.2
The Pac-12 (3) is the opposite of the Big East: showing four bids right now but only expected to have three in the end. Right now Utah is the Last Team In, and if they hold on it's possible that Colorado does not. And Oregon is still alive but not favored to make it. For a while there is looked like only Arizona might represent the league, then Washington State came on strong to insure the Pac-12 wasn't a one-horse town. It looks like they'll get a third, and maybe—but not probably—a fourth. This would be a great time for a team like Washington, UCLA or USC to win the conference tournament to add another—though that would probably hurt a Pac-12 team on the bubble!
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 25. Saint Mary's WCC 24-6 25-6 90.3 32. Gonzaga WCC 23-6 23-7 85.0 75. San Francisco WCC 22-8 23-8 4.4
There was a brief moment when it looked like Gonzaga wasn't going to make the tournament, and San Francisco might instead. That moment passed. Now Gonzaga is pretty firmly in along with St. Mary's, and the Dons will have to beat both in the West Coast Conference (2) tournament to join them.
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 43. Indiana St. MVC 25-5 26-5 60.2 46. Drake MVC 24-6 25-6 52.5 69. Bradley MVC 21-9 21-10 9.1
The Missouri Valley Conference (2) shows two bids now—barely—and their odds say that's likely to actually happen. But only because they have Bradley there to give the odds a nudge, so that their total at-large odds reach 62%. That's not a lot of leeway, and we wonder if either Indiana State or Drake can lose another game now and still get an at-large bid. This is one case where the aggregate odds don't tell the story very well. Whether the MVC gets one or two bids all depends on the conference tournament scenario. If they only get one bid, the ACC is "next in line" to pick it up—again, according to the odds.
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 44. Florida Atl Amer 21-7 23-8 58.2 61. SMU Amer 19-9 22-9 22.4 63. Memphis Amer 21-8 22-9 18.8 82. South Florida Amer 21-5 23-6 0.1
The American (1) is a 1-bid league both by the odds and by the current situation. But it's complicated. South Florida leads the conference by several games and we don't show them with a chance in hell unless they win the tournament. And SMU and Memphis show an aggregate 40%, so one of them could easily cross the threshold. But that's how it looks: either Florida Atlantic wins the conference and only they make it, or someone else does and the league gets two bids—and that's assuming FAU still gets in. I'm not sure why so many have the Owls as a 9-seed when they were a 9-seed last year with 3 losses, and this year they already have 7 (thought that Arizona win helps...!)
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 28. Dayton A10 22-5 24-6 89.2 67. Richmond A10 21-7 23-8 10.7 78. VCU A10 19-9 20-11 0.5 89. St. Bonaventure A10 18-10 20-10 <0.1 90. Massachusetts A10 18-10 19-11 <0.1 93. Loyola Chicago A10 20-8 22-9 <0.1 96. George Mason A10 18-10 20-11 <0.1
The Atlantic 10 (1) has a clear favorite and really no one else who is close—but plenty on the horizon. That's what makes this league dangerous to any team on the bubble. Because Dayton is almost certain to get it, and if anyone else wins the conference tournament, that shrinks the bubble. And look how many live contenders there are to challenge the Flyers! Richmond has a small chance of playing their way into at-large contention, but the other five teams are there to go on an upset run and steal a bid. Watch out.
Rank Team Conf Rec Proj %Odds 51. James Madison SB 27-3 28-3 40.9 70. Appalachian St. SB 25-5 26-5 7.9
And finally we include the Sun Belt (1) because they are the last conference to show multiple teams in contention for an at-large bid, though neither looks set to make it. James Madison is creeping closer and closer to at-large area but won't quite make it above 50%. But you don't necessarily have to reach 50%, as sometimes the Committee makes unexpected decisions. If Appalachian State wins the tournament, James Madison would have a reasonable shot at a bid. Technically so does App State, but that would be a stretch for the Committee.
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