Two weeks until Selection Sunday, 2024, let's check out The Bubble in depth, in 5 groups of seven, using the Dance Chance as of 2/29/2024:
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/29 2/25 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 34. South Carolina SEC 23-5 24-7 81.5 +5.5 -- 7 9 9 35. Mississippi St. SEC 19-9 20-11 80.2 -5.2 -- 10 9 9 36. Texas Tech B12 19-9 21-10 79.0 -8.9 -- 9 9 8 37. Texas B12 18-10 20-11 74.4 +17.7 -- 10 10 11p 38. Northwestern B10 20-8 22-9 72.0 +7.5 -- 9 10 10 39. Oklahoma B12 19-9 20-11 70.7 -3.8 -- 10 10 10 40. Virginia ACC 21-8 22-9 61.1 +3.7 -- 10 10 11p
These teams are fairly safe. They're looking like 9 and 10 seeds right now, and unless they collapse in their last few games and lose in their Conference tournament opener, still get in. Virginia is looking a bit suspect at 61%, but they have only two games to go and are expected to go 1-1. That would only add another loss which they can likely survive.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/29 2/25 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 41. Colorado P12 19-9 21-10 60.6 -0.3 -- 11p 11 10 42. Michigan St. B10 17-11 19-12 60.3 -1.1 -- 11p 10 43. Indiana St. MVC 25-5 26-5 60.2 -0.5 -- 11 11 11 44. Florida Atlantic Amer 21-7 23-8 58.2 -2.3 -- 11 11 11 45. Seton Hall BE 18-10 20-11 54.1 -4.3 -- 11p 11p 11 46. Drake MVC 24-6 25-6 52.5 +0.4 -- 11 12p 12p 47. Utah P12 17-11 19-12 51.0 +5.9 -- 12p
This is the real Bubble, the teams that are just barely in or in a few cases, not in yet but projected to be there. Michigan State falls into that group; at 17-11 they're probably not going to make it unless they go 2-1 in their remaining three games and that includes tonight at 1-seed Purdue. Of course if they win that game, they really get a boost and their worries are likely over, but otherwise they need two wins and are still a bit precarious.
Utah is another team that needs to work their way in, and after that, they can't lost in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament. Luckily they have Cal and Oregon State next, then Oregon on the road which is their toughest. Going 3-0 puts them in a much better place than Last Team In. Their loss to Colorado last week put the Buffaloes in relatively high ground.
Indiana State and Florida Atlantic are looking more and more like they'll need to win their conferences, or at the very least get to the tournament final. The Owls will get a lot more benefit of the doubt than the Sycamores, so if Drake upsets Indiana State it's likely they replace rather than supplement them. Even though we show the Missouri Valley as having two bids (just barely) by the odds, the actual mechanism doesn't work out that way too often.
Meanwhile Seton Hall is one of several Bubble Big East teams and right now, in the best shape, mostly because they still have a gimme vs. DePaul left on their schedule.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/29 2/25 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 48. Pittsburgh ACC 18-10 20-11 49.1 -6.5 -- 12p 12p 49. St. John's BE 17-12 19-12 44.6 +15.9 -- 50. Providence BE 18-10 19-12 42.6 -7.3 -- 12p 51. James Madison SB 27-3 28-3 40.9 +0.9 -- 12 12 12 52. Villanova BE 16-12 18-14 38.7 +4.8 -- 53. Princeton Ivy 21-3 23-4 38.2 -1.3 -- 12 12 12 54. Ohio St. B10 17-12 18-13 37.5 +14.4 --
St. John's, Providence, and Villanova are all still very alive for a bid from the Big East. Villanova's win-loss record is an issue but they have opportunity in their final games, including one vs. Providence (which they already won today!). The Friars were "in" on Thursday but projected to drop out, and the loss to the Wildcats will hurt them. St. John's at one point lost 8 of 10 but a win over Creighton restored some luster, and now with only Georgetown and DePaul left they're likely to be 19-12 going in to the Big East tournament.
Speaking of dropping 8 of 10, Ohio State is back in the mix somehow. Instead of getting called out by their coach a la St. John's, they got a whole new coach and with it claimed a win over Purdue, which has the Buckeyes threatening to go on a solid run that might get them a bid.
Pitt is the First Team Out here, and has three winnable games left. A few are losable, too, which is why they're at 49%.
James Madison and Princeton are the top 1-bid league leaders left as others suffered losses and fell by the wayside. The Dukes have won 10 straight (they're 28-3 after winning yesterday) and the Tigers have won 7 straight now. But that only puts them close but no cigar, they'll still very likely need to win their conference tournaments. They've put themselves close enough to still have hope in case something goes wrong, but not close enough to feel ripped off if they don't get a bid.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/29 2/25 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 55. McNeese St. Slnd 25-3 28-3 31.3 -2.3 -- 12 12 12 56. Syracuse ACC 19-10 20-11 30.5 +12.5 -- 57. Oregon P12 19-9 20-11 28.7 +0.7 -- 58. Grand Canyon WAC 25-4 27-5 26.0 +1.2 -- 13 13 13 59. Cincinnati B12 16-12 18-13 26.0 +0.3 -- 60. Iowa B10 17-12 18-13 23.7 +2.3 -- 61. SMU Amer 19-9 22-9 22.4 +1.1 --
McNeese State and Grand Canyon have both been very close to the auto-bid territory before, but both were socked by losses. McNeese's last loss was a month ago but it was enough to keep them at bay. Grand Canyon was very close a few weeks ago but they lost back-to-back games that knocked the Antelopes into must-win-your-conference territory.
Syracuse made a big move recently by beating Virginia Tech, knocking the Hokies to the next rung (see next rung). Oregon lost today to Arizona but that was fully expected; now they need to beat fellow bubble Pac-12 teams Colorado and Utah to put themselves in better shape before the conference tournament. Cincinnati has three Big Twelve games left and they aren't the worst—Kansas State, Oklahoma, West Virginia—but even 2 of 3 keeps them needing a very good Big Twelve tournament run; three of three would be much better. Same goes for Iowa, who is playing Northwestern now and needs that win and a win over Illinois to shore up their 17-12 record.
Finally SMU. The American is a mess and quite frankly, winning the tournament is the only way to guarantee a spot among all the claimants.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/29 2/25 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 62. Mississippi SEC 19-9 21-10 20.3 -4.0 -- 63. Memphis Amer 21-8 22-9 18.8 +6.2 -- 64. Butler BE 16-13 18-13 13.6 -13.6 -- 65. Samford SC 25-5 26-5 11.8 -19.3 -- 13 13 13 66. Kansas St. B12 17-11 18-13 11.6 +0.7 -- 67. Richmond A10 21-7 23-8 10.7 +2.8 -- 68. Virginia Tech ACC 15-13 17-14 10.4 -10.1 --
Memphis is also in the American and they are roughly in the same spot as SMU—needing to win the conference title game. But they do face Florida Atlantic in the regular season final, so that would help a lot.
Mississippi has a win over Memphis but that's one of their best, and their 19-9 record isn't looking so hot. Like nearly every team here, they need a really good conference tournament run, and that probably won't be enough for Richmond in the Atlantic 10, they'll need to win it. Virginia Tech, too, might need an auto-bid, as their remaining schedule won't impress.
Kansas State is probably the only team here who would likely seal a bid by winning their remaining regular season games, which includes Kansas and Iowa State. At 20-11, they'd be able to survive a first-round Big Twelve tournament loss. But they're more likely to go 0-3 than 3-0 so the conference tournament is still key for them.
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