Let's jump right in. This is the Dance Chance through Thursday's games (3/7)
4day 7day Seed Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed Proj 3/03 36. Colorado P12 21-9 70.5 +11.1 +9.9 -- 9 11 37. Oklahoma B12 20-10 69.9 +1.0 -0.8 -- 10 10 38. Mississippi St. SEC 19-11 68.6 -12.3 -11.6 -- 10 8 39. Northwestern B10 20-10 67.9 -1.0 -4.1 -- 10 10 40. Florida Atlantic Amer 23-7 64.7 +5.3 +6.5 -- 10 11 41. Pittsburgh ACC 20-10 61.6 +6.8 +12.5 -- 11 11p 42. Virginia ACC 21-9 59.5 +2.0 -1.6 -- 11 11p 43. Indiana St. MVC 26-5 57.8 -1.8 -2.4 -- 11 10 44. Drake MVC 25-6 57.6 -0.1 +5.1 -- 11p 11
First thing we note is Colorado is up at a 9-seed, the low 9-seed so maybe a 10, but that's a lot better than they were just a few days ago. What happened is the Buffs have won 5 in a row and just beat bubble team Oregon on the road, which puts them in good shape with Oregon State left for today (Saturday) before the Pac-12 tournament.
Oklahoma should be in, and Mississippi State will hang on despite their loss to Texas A&M which knocked them down to a 10-seed. Northwestern is in the consensus bracket too, and Florida Atlantic should hold on one way or another, though if they lose to Memphis today and exit in the first round of the American tournament we'll have to talk.
Can both Pittsburgh and Virginia make it from the ACC, or will it be a "one or the other" situation? Both are expected to win today, which is why they're both in at 11-seeds, but the ACC tournament might change things. Pitt will actually have an easier first-round opponent since Virginia probably has a double-bye.
And more interesting, can both Indiana State and Drake make it from the Missouri Valley, or will only the tournament winner get in? And if someone else like Bradley wins, do either the Sycamores or Bulldogs get an at-large? Both teams have already won a game in the MVC tournament (not reflected here) and if both win today, they'll meet in the finals tomorrow (Sunday) so we'll know a lot more soon.
4day 7day Seed Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed Proj 3/03 45. Seton Hall BE 19-11 56.5 +7.0 +2.4 -- 11p 46. Michigan St. B10 18-12 55.7 +1.7 -4.6 -- 12p 12p 47. Wake Forest ACC 18-12 53.5 -19.7 -31.7 -- 12p 10 48. St. John's BE 18-12 46.5 +2.4 +1.9 -- 49. Ohio St. B10 18-12 43.0 +1.1 +5.5 -- 50. Princeton Ivy 23-3 42.6 +0.1 +4.4 -- 12 12 51. James Madison SB 28-3 41.7 +2.2 +0.8 -- 12 12 52. Utah P12 18-12 37.6 -14.3 -13.4 -- 53. Providence BE 19-11 35.8 +4.6 -6.8 -- 54. Villanova BE 17-13 35.6 -18.1 -3.1 -- 12p
The biggest thing that happened on the bubble in the first half of the week was Seton Hall beating Villanova, which put the Pirates in and kicked the Wildcats out. If Villanova can beat Creighton today they'll be right back in the thick of things heading into the Big East tournament but odds are against. And Seton Hall has to beat DePaul—a much easier task—to hold their place.
Let's talk Michigan State. Beating Northwestern saved them from starting underwater going into the Big Ten tournament, but they still have to beat Indiana today on the road. Most people assume the Spartans are safe, but I'm not sure. Lose to Indiana and lose their first B10 tourney game and they're in trouble.
Speaking of trouble, Wake Forest did the one thing I said they had to not do: lose to Georgia Tech at home. And now they're borderline, though by the odds there is still a lot of room between the Deacons and St. John's, 53.5% to 46.5%, and if they beat Clemson today they'll regain some support. Still, they lost 20% odds from the Tech loss and 30% between that and the loss to Virginia Tech prior.
So along with St. John's it's Ohio State that's closest to a bid, though other bracketologists don't have the Buckeyes on their radar. Princeton and James Madison are the closest mid-Majors to a bid, but a loss in their tournaments probably bumps them down too much, as usual. That leaves Utah and Providence part of the "First Four Out". St. John's should beat Georgetown today, Ohio State can gain ground by beating Rutgers, Utah is on the road at Oregon, and Providence has a huge opportunity vs. 1-seed UConn, as this projection fully expects them to lose that game. A win pretty much puts them in the seedings.
4day 7day Seed Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed Proj 3/03 55. Iowa B10 18-12 34.7 -0.7 +11.0 -- 56. Syracuse ACC 20-11 33.2 +0.9 +2.7 -- 57. McNeese St. Slnd 28-3 32.7 +1.5 +1.4 -- 12 12 58. Grand Canyon WAC 26-4 29.7 +1.2 +3.7 -- 13 13 59. Virginia Tech ACC 17-13 28.8 +8.0 +18.4 -- 60. Texas A&M SEC 17-13 23.4 +11.6 +18.1 -- 61. Memphis Amer 22-8 20.5 +2.1 +1.7 -- 62. Oregon P12 19-11 20.4 -4.3 -8.3 -- 63. Cincinnati B12 17-13 18.5 -9.0 -7.5 -- 64. Mississippi SEC 20-10 17.2 -2.9 -3.1 --
Here's where hope starts to get leaner, and the teams will need a really good conference tournament run, not just a win or two. Iowa hosts Illinois tomorrow and can make some good gains with a win. In the ACC, Syracuse is done for the year and the ACC tournament awaits while Virginia Tech can only lose ground vs. Notre Dame (who has been playing well lately). McNeese and Grand Canyon are probably too far from at-large bid range as their tournaments start, so they'll both need to win an auto-bid.
Texas A&M helped themselves a lot by beating Mississippi State the other day but they have more work to do. They play at Mississippi today and the loser is probably out for good barring a miracle SEC tournament run. Even the winner will probably need to win 2 games in the tournament, or make the finals, to get an at-large bid. What's more, A&M and Ole Miss could end up facing each other in the first round.
Oregon fell to Colorado but faces another bubble team, Utah, today and the Ducks really need a win. Cincinnati needs a win, and should get one vs. West Virginia today but their hopes rest on a great Big Twelve tournament run. Memphis does have a solid opportunity to improve their odds as they travel to Florida Atlantic, but they'd still need some more wins in the American tournament.
4day 7day Seed Seed Rank Team Conf Rec %Odds %Chg %Chg 1-seed Proj 3/03 65. Butler BE 18-13 14.5 +1.0 +0.9 -- 66. Richmond A10 23-7 14.4 +4.2 +3.7 -- 67. UNLV MWC 19-10 13.8 +9.0 +8.1 -- 68. Appalachian St. SB 26-5 11.6 -0.3 +3.7 -- 69. Samford SC 26-5 4.2 -6.1 -7.6 -- 13 13 70. Bradley MVC 21-10 3.6 -0.9 -5.5 -- 71. Kansas St. B12 17-13 3.4 -4.6 -8.2 -- 72. Minnesota B10 18-12 1.4 -8.0 -6.1 -- 73. UC Irvine BW 23-8 0.2 -1.0 -0.3 -- 13 13 74. South Florida Amer 23-5 0.1 0.0 0.0 --
These are the no-hopers, or very-little-hopers. There are some major conference teams here that could possible get a bid by getting to the finals of their tournament. Butler could get within striking distance if they win three games, since they'll probably be the 9-seed and play in the early round of the Big East tournament. Kansas State would be in really good shape after three wins in the Big Twelve—especially if that follows a home win over 2-seed Iowa State today. And if Minnesota can beat Northwestern on the road today, then have a good Big Ten tournament run, they'll be in consideration.
But all those outcomes are pretty far-fetched. And it's worse for the mid-Majors, who have little opportunity to rack up big wins. Take Bradley in the Missouri Valley. They've won a tournament game already (not reflected here) and face Drake today. Even if they beat the Bulldogs, they aren't so close to a bid that a loss in the finals gives them much of a fighting chance at an at-large. Richmond in the Atlantic 10 is in better shape right now, but as the #1 seed in the tournament they would only add two wins to their résumé before the finals. Their best bet—maybe only one—is to win the tournament. Same with Appalachian State in the Sun Belt and Samford who is favored to win the Southern.
The two exceptions? One is UNLV in the Mountain West, which is for all intents and purposes a Major conference this year. With six teams jockeying for position in the brackets, the MWC tournament is going to be a free-for-all, and UNLV might be able to get enough quality wins to be within striking distance themselves in the end. If the Rebels can beat Nevada today, then add two more very quality wins before the tournament final, they'll be hard to ignore. But with so many other teams from the conference already "in", they're a tough sell unless another MWC team is knocked out.
And again, there's South Florida. Leading the American Athletic Conference standings by three games, the Bulls just aren't doing well by our algorithm and no one is sure what the Committee will do with them if they don't win the AAC tournament. And as the #1 seed, they wouldn't beat teams that would help them much until the finals, which they might have to win. I can only guess they're a lot closer than we show, but can't imagine they're right on the borderline either.
Comments