For all the big games last weekend (and last week) there were no changes on the 1-line or even on the 2-seed line.
Mostly because many of the big winners this weekend lost the (less prestigious) game earlier in the week! Here's a rundown of our latest Dance Chance on February 5, 2024:
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 1-seed 02/04 01/28 1. Purdue B10 21-2 28-3 29-2 100.0 0.0 96.7 1 1 2. Houston B12 19-3 27-4 28-3 100.0 0.0 90.0 1 1 3. Connecticut BE 20-2 27-4 28-3 100.0 +0.1 59.1 1 1 4. Arizona P12 17-5 25-6 26-5 100.0 0.0 42.6 1 1 5. North Carolina ACC 18-4 25-6 26-5 >99.9 0.0 23.2 2 2 6. Alabama SEC 16-6 23-8 24-7 99.9 +0.5 18.9 2 2 7. Tennessee SEC 16-5 24-7 25-6 99.9 +0.1 16.4 2 2 8. Iowa St. B12 16-5 23-8 25-6 99.7 0.0 11.5 2 2
Both Purdue and Houston needed overtime to win home games early last week (over Northwestern and Texas, respectively) but while the Boilermakers topped Wisconsin on Sunday, the Cougars fell to Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse, 78-65, in the weekend's biggest matchup. That allowed Purdue to take over the top overall seed but Houston is still in great shape for a 1-seed—90%, according to our newly-added numbers (why didn't I put this in here before?). Purdue is nearly a shoo-in now for a top seed at 96.7%.
UConn joined the 100% club this week, beating Providence and St. John's to go 20-2. The Huskies have solid 1-seed odds: 59.1%, or more likely than not in our book. Arizona isn't a certain thing as a 1-seed (42.6%) but they hold their top seed despite a scare at home from Stanford on Sunday.
The 2-seeds all stayed 2-seeds, too. North Carolina got a big win over Duke but their earlier loss to Georgia Tech kept them a sliver away from 100% odds. As the top 2-seed they have a strong shot at a 1-seed obviously, as does Alabama. The Tide started 6-5 but they were a 2-seed in our book even then; after beating Georgia and Mississippi State (99-67) they've won 10 of 11 and everyone else is waking up to how good they are as they take over our top spot in the SEC. Tennessee got a huge road win over Kentucky, 103-92, but they lost to South Carolina before that. And Iowa State has the biggest "what if" of the week; if the refs had put an extra 0.1 seconds before the last play, they would have had a game-winning 3 over Baylor but instead they lost, 70-68.
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 1-seed 02/04 01/28 9. Marquette BE 17-5 23-8 24-7 99.3 +4.7 7.9 3 4 10. Auburn SEC 18-4 25-6 26-5 99.3 +1.8 9.6 3 3 11. Kansas B12 18-4 23-8 23-8 99.3 +7.8 5.2 3 5 12. BYU B12 16-5 24-7 25-6 99.2 +0.5 10.5 3 3 13. Baylor B12 16-5 22-9 23-8 98.1 +6.1 5.5 4 4 14. Duke ACC 16-5 24-7 26-5 95.8 +5.4 0.2 4 5 15. New Mexico MWC 18-4 25-6 25-6 95.7 -1.7 0.6 4 3 16. Wisconsin B10 16-6 22-9 24-7 95.3 +0.8 0.4 4 4
The 3-seed line sees the first changes from last week, principle among then Kansas, who is up from a 5-seed after the big win over Houston. They join a group of three Big Twelve teams, where BYU interestingly shows a much bigger 1-seed odds than KU or Baylor. The Cougars' Strength ranking is much better (#5) than the Bears (#11) or Jayhawks (#17) and getting a 1-seed requires an outlier future performance, even though Kansas has by far the best résumé of the three so far.
Marquette is up to a 3-seed after winning their 5th and 6th in a row last week; meanwhile New Mexico drops to a 4-seed after losing at home to Boise State last Wednesday. The Lobos are still the top-ranked Mountain West team, which is a really big deal this season.
Duke interestingly rises a seed after falling to North Carolina in Chapel Hill. That loss isn't a bad one, and Baylor and Michigan State—the Blue Devils best skins—did great last week. And they won at Virginia Tech earlier in the week, and a road win generally gains a team more than a road loss hurts them—especially an expected loss to a 2-seed. And perhaps more interestingly, Wisconsin lost twice but holds their 4-seed. They fell in overtime at Nebraska and vs. 1-seed Purdue. They even gained almost 1% in Dance Chance odds. I guess "good losses" are really a thing? But seriously, think how much they'd have jumped for winning both games...
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 1-seed 02/04 01/28 17. Creighton BE 16-6 22-9 24-7 95.3 -1.2 0.6 5 3 18. Illinois B10 17-5 23-8 23-8 94.6 +4.1 0.9 5 5 19. Utah St. MWC 19-3 27-6 29-4 90.0 -1.6 <0.1 5 4 20. San Diego St. MWC 17-5 23-8 24-7 86.8 +5.9 <0.1 5 7 21. Dayton A10 18-3 25-5 27-3 86.3 +1.8 <0.1 6 6 22. TCU B12 16-6 21-10 21-10 84.8 -3.5 <0.1 6 5 23. Colorado St. MWC 17-5 23-8 24-7 83.5 +2.5 <0.1 6 7 24. Florida Atlantic Amer 18-4 25-6 27-4 80.0 +5.9 0.0 6 7 25. Indiana St. MVC 20-3 27-4 28-3 79.9 +3.9 0.0 7 7 26. Michigan St. B10 14-8 20-11 22-9 79.8 +7.2 <0.1 7 8 27. Clemson ACC 14-7 21-10 22-9 79.3 -5.4 0.0 7 6 28. Boise St. MWC 16-6 22-9 21-10 76.4 +22.5 0.0 7 11p
Creighton also falls from the 3-line and lands at a 5-seed after last Friday's 99-98 home loss to Butler. Along with Illinois the Blue Jays are the last team deemed to have a realistic shot at a 1-seed; beyond them, a handful of teams have a less than 1 in 1000 prayer that if everything goes right, they'll be within striking distance come conference tournament time. Note that those teams include three Mountain West teams: Utah State, down from a 4-seed after losing at San Diego State, who rises from a 7 to a 5; and Colorado State, up from a 7- to a 6-seed after beating the Aztecs the prior Tuesday. Whew! Left out of the 1-seed prayer table is Boise State, but the Broncos are the biggest mover this week, up from the play-in line to the bottom 7 seed after beating 4-seed (and MWC favorite) New Mexico and following that with a 94-56 win over Air Force.
TCU fell to Texas at home and fell a seed. Clemson also fell a rung after their 6th loss in 9 games, to Virginia at home by a point this time. But they're still near 80% in Dance Chance, so the Tigers aren't in trouble yet; the Bracket Matrix concurs, with the consensus bracket putting them at a 7 as well. The Dance Chance is a projection, while the Bracket Matrix is mostly made of "snapshot" style brackets, the "if Selection Sunday were today" type.
Rising a notch each are Michigan State and Florida Atlantic. Both teams won twice at home with the Spartans beating Michigan and Maryland while the Owls topped North Texas and Tulsa, the latter 102-70.
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 1-seed 02/04 01/28 29. Kentucky SEC 15-6 21-10 21-10 76.0 -10.8 0.0 8 6 30. Texas Tech B12 16-5 21-10 22-9 75.8 -7.6 <0.1 8 6 31. Utah P12 15-7 21-10 22-9 75.6 +3.3 0.0 8 8 32. South Carolina SEC 19-3 23-8 23-8 74.0 +19.5 0.0 8 11 33. Oklahoma B12 16-6 20-11 20-11 72.7 +1.2 <0.1 9 8 34. Saint Mary's WCC 18-6 24-7 25-6 70.7 +2.7 0.0 9 9 35. Texas B12 15-7 19-12 19-12 68.7 +18.3 <0.1 9 12p 36. Nebraska B10 16-7 21-10 22-9 68.5 +9.3 0.0 9 10 37. Cincinnati B12 15-7 20-11 19-12 68.0 +0.8 0.0 10 9 38. Wake Forest ACC 14-7 20-11 21-10 64.1 +8.5 0.0 10 11 39. Colorado P12 15-7 21-10 23-8 61.9 -8.4 0.0 10 8
Kentucky had a bad home outing vs. Tennessee and fell a couple seeds, but the real damage was done the game before in the overtime loss to Florida—also at home. Two home losses at this stage of the season will hurt a team, and the Wildcats fall over 10% in odds and have basically no chance of a 1-seed. The lowest-ranked teams to show a glimmer of hope are all from the powerful Big Twelve: Texas Tech, who lost to TCU and Cincinnati and dropped from a 6 to an 8; Oklahoma, who lost to Central Florida and slipped to a 9-seed; and Texas, who made a huge jump from the bubble to a 9-seed after taking 1-seed Houston into overtime, then beating TCU. The Big Twelve is so full of opportunity for big wins that almost no team can be counted completely out—though Cincinnati falls just outside the event horizon, apparently. The Bearcats lost to lowly West Virginia prior to beating Texas Tech and dropped to a 10-seed.
The biggest mover other than Boise is South Carolina, who is finally getting some props from the Dance Chance after starting 19-3! For the entire season the Gamecocks had a great record and low Strength, and a poor outlook that kept them out of the seedings. That changed a few weeks ago with their win over Kentucky, and last week's win over 2-seed Tennessee really jump-started their odds; they're up 19.5% and up from an 11-seed to an 8-seed after winning five straight. Their Strength is still only #56 (vs. #5 Success..!) so they're expected to go about 4-5 from here.
Colorado lost to Utah which dropped the Buffaloes two seeds while the Utes held their 8-seed. Nebraska won in overtime (vs. 4-seed Wisconsin) and lost in overtime (at 3-seed Illinois) and the result was a gain of a seed. Sounds reasonable. Wake Forest lost to Pitt on the road, but beat Syracuse so badly (99-70) in made their outlook rosier and the Deacons rose to a 10-seed. But maybe the most interesting result was from St. Mary's, who beat Gonzaga 64-62 on the road—and didn't budge from a 9-seed. That shows how far the Zags have fallen from their usual standard.
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 1-seed 02/04 01/28 40. Butler BE 15-7 20-11 19-12 61.2 +16.1 0.0 10 41. Washington St. P12 16-6 22-9 23-8 61.0 +2.5 0.0 11 10 42. Florida SEC 15-7 20-11 20-11 57.0 +6.7 0.0 11 12p 43. Nevada MWC 17-5 23-9 23-9 56.5 +1.7 0.0 11 11 44. Northwestern B10 15-7 20-11 22-9 55.6 -0.5 0.0 11p 10 45. Mississippi St. SEC 14-8 19-12 21-10 55.5 -14.5 0.0 11p 9 46. Gonzaga WCC 16-6 22-8 22-8 50.9 -5.3 0.0 12p 10 47. Virginia ACC 17-5 21-10 20-11 50.8 +14.0 0.0 12p 48. St. John's BE 13-9 19-12 18-13 50.3 -14.6 0.0 9 49. Mississippi SEC 18-4 22-9 22-9 46.1 +0.4 0.0 50. Seton Hall BE 14-8 18-13 19-12 42.8 +6.3 0.0 51. Grand Canyon WAC 21-2 29-3 30-2 42.1 +2.8 0.0 12 12 52. Drake MVC 18-5 24-7 25-6 41.7 -9.9 0.0 11p
The bubble is officially relevant now that it's February. And our first new team in this month is Butler who upset 5-seed Creighton on the road by a point. Joining them—just barely—is Virginia, who has won 7 straight including an upset of Clemson, also on the road, and also by a point. The Cavs slip in as the Last Team In, while St. John's falls from a 9-seed to the First Team Out after rough losses to Xavier and UConn left them 1-5 over their last six outings. Their remaining schedule is favorable but with 9 losses there's little room for error. Also dropping out is Drake, who lost to Missouri Valley favorites Indiana State, 75-67.
Mississippi State's bad loss to Alabama—coupled with their earlier loss at Mississippi—dumped the Bulldogs from a 9 to an 11-seed play-in team. But the Gonzaga Bulldogs fared just as bad, losing at home to WCC rival St. Mary's and falling from a 10-seed to a 12-seed play-in. Their meeting with Kentucky next Saturday is a chance for both teams to recover, but unfortunately for the Zags it's in Rupp Arena.
Speaking of Mississippi, the Rebels have been South Carolina's twin all year, ranking low in Strength and high in Success, and therefore forecast to underperform. Unlike the Gamecocks, however, Ole Miss hasn't made it over the hump in the seedings. Just when it looked like they'd made it—after the Mississippi State win—they suffered a big setback at Auburn, losing 91-77 after leading by 12 in the first half. Winning 4 and losing 5 in remaining play will keep them in striking distance during the SEC tournament, and really, the ball's in their court with potential big wins in almost every game.
[ Record || Dance Chance || Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 1-seed 02/04 01/28 54. Princeton Ivy 16-3 23-4 24-3 39.6 -13.2 0.0 12 12 56. Providence BE 14-8 18-13 18-13 36.1 -11.7 0.0 58. Virginia Tech ACC 13-9 18-13 19-12 34.6 -12.2 0.0 62. SMU Amer 15-7 22-9 23-8 29.1 -13.3 0.0 63. Iowa B10 13-9 18-13 16-15 28.3 -13.6 0.0 69. Richmond A10 16-6 22-9 24-7 17.7 -10.2 0.0 72. Memphis Amer 16-6 21-10 21-10 16.0 -23.4 0.0 75. McNeese St. Slnd 19-3 27-4 28-3 15.7 -21.0 0.0 13 12 76. Syracuse ACC 14-8 19-12 19-12 15.6 -17.2 0.0 78. San Francisco WCC 18-6 22-9 23-8 13.5 -11.6 0.0 84. Kansas St. B12 14-8 16-15 15-16 6.8 -16.1 0.0 85. Florida St. ACC 12-9 16-15 16-15 6.7 -12.9 0.0 99. North Texas Amer 12-9 18-12 19-11 0.9 -12.9 0.0
Off the bubble: The rest of the teams that made big percentage moves were all moves on the downside, starting with Princeton. The Tigers lost their 2nd game in a row on Friday at Yale, and there's not much left on their schedule to bolster their résumé. They're still favored to win the Ivy League, and it looks like they'll need to.
Providence lost twice, to UConn and Villanova, neither of which is bad (both were road games) but with 8 losses and a tough remaining schedule, the Win-Loss record becomes a factor. The same thing goes for Virginia Tech, who is 13-9 now in the ACC following losses to Duke and Miami. Fellow ACC member Syracuse is a bit better at 14-8 but they're even lower in Strength and not expected to beat anyone outside of the conference's punching bags (though they are favored—barely—over the Hokies at home).
SMU only has 7 losses but can't afford many more in the American Athletic. The Mustangs won two games last week and still dropped 13.3%, probably because their previous opponents have faltered, making their résumé weaker. Florida State, whom they beat, lost to lowly Louisville, and Memphis, whom they lost to, is in a downward spiral with 4 losses in 5 games including a recent home loss to Rice. North Texas, also in the American—and also a team that beat SMU—lost almost all of last week's 14% odds after losses to UAB and South Florida left them with 9 losses, pretty much above the limit for an at-large from that conference.
Iowa has had an up and down year, in the seedings for a while before falling out, and this week wasn't great as they fell to Indiana and beat struggling Ohio State at home by 2 points. Still at 28% despite 9 losses and a rough outlook, those odds come purely from the opportunity, not the expectation. Meanwhile the Big Twelve's Kansas State has squandered much of its opportunity, losing to Oklahoma as well as lowly Oklahoma State last week. The opportunity is still there as they play Kansas and BYU twice as well as Texas, TCU, and Iowa State, but realistically that probably turns their 8 losses into 15. The next five games will either put them at zero or give them a big boost.
Mid-majors: Richmond wants to become the A10's 2nd pick (after Dayton) but those hopes are dwindling after a loss to VCU, their first in 11 games. The Spiders' 5-5 start to the season really put them at a huge disadvantage as far as at-large odds go, meaning they'll have to win the A10 tournament. McNeese State was tantalizingly close to at-large territory a few weeks ago but their big win (Michigan) lost all its luster, and the Cowboys lost their 3rd game (to SE Louisiana) last week, pretty much dooming their slim odds of a bid. Unlike Richmond they'll be heavy favorites to win their Southland conference tournament.
And San Francisco once was right on the bubble too, but since the Dons lost to both St. Mary's and Gonzaga a few weeks ago they've been treading water. What knocked them down 11.6% from last week? Just reality closing in on teams like this—as well as a very weak, 6 point home win over Pacific (#348 Strength). Sometimes winning isn't everything.
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