It's a pretty huge weekend with three pairs of top ten teams battling on February 2nd, 2024 and one more on Sunday. That's by the AP, of course: as far as we're concerned it's four pairs of, let's say, teams in the top 21 in our Overall power rating. But no complaints: these are great matchups and/or great rivalry games and there are some interesting happenings this week, where almost all of the teams involved seemed to be looking ahead to their big game.
(AP #7) Duke at (3) North Carolina (6:30pm EST)
Duke is only #21 in our Overall power rating, the lowest-ranked team of the 8-some, but they're a solid top ten and they beat Virginia Tech earlier this week while North Carolina was upset by lowly Georgia Tech, 74-73.
Who was looking ahead? This looks like the definition of "looking ahead" a concept that's always invoked when a team is upset prior to a much bigger game. "Trap game" is also used, especially when the home dog gets an upset win. Is it a real thing? It really does seem that the team that gets upset when "looking ahead" ends up winning big, but I have no actual data to back that up. That said, look for the Tar Heels, playing at home, to smoke the Blue Devils. After all, looking ahead means you are really focused on that game and psyched up for it.
(5) Tennessee at (10) Kentucky (8:30pm EST)
Another rivalry, not quite as big since Tennessee's basketball status isn't near that of the Wildcats, but this year the Vols are the better team. Kentucky only ranks #20 in our Strength (predictive) power rating with Tennessee at #10.
Who was looking ahead? It's hard to know what to make of the psychology of this game since BOTH teams lost in the run-up: Tennessee fell at South Carolina 63-59 and Kentucky lost to Florida at home in overtime. Kentucky has the home court Saturday but their loss—at home—looks much worse than Tennessee's road loss. Even if you're psyched up for a game and looking ahead, you should win if you're playing at home. That makes me think Tennessee is the winner here.
(4) Houston at (8) Kansas (4:00pm EST)
This isn't a rivalry of any sort but it might become one, depending on how long the new Big Twelve stays together. Houston is our #1 team in Strength and #2 Overall, while Kansas is just #19 in Strength but their #6 Success rating brings their Overall up to #8, so this is the only real top ten clash according to our power ratings.
Who is looking ahead? Houston needed overtime to beat Texas, so the Cougars might have had the bigger game on their mind. That said, winning at Texas is not such an easy task—in this case a win's a win. Kansas warmed up with an 83-54 win over Oklahoma State; a home game vs. a weak opponent is usually not considered a "trap game" susceptible to "looking ahead" anyway. So maybe Houston was, a little, and Kansas just showed how hyped they are for Houston's first visit as a Big Twelve member. This one's hard to call, Houston did well to get the road win, and Kansas is tough at home. I'm going again with the favorite, since they struggled and persevered and while Kansas rolled, it seems that teams that have a big "warm-up" win fall flat when the real game approaches. Again, I have no data here, it's a pretty big unexplored area in sports analytics and sports psychology.
(2) Purdue at (6) Wisconsin (Sunday, 1:00pm EST)
The Sunday big game features Purdue (our #1 team) vs. Wisconsin (our #15 team). The AP has Wisconsin really high because...well, it seems they think they have to keep them ahead of AP #9 Marquette. They're behind #5 Tennessee, who beat them, but ahead of #11 Arizona, who also beat them. In any case these two teams are leading the Big Ten right now, with the Badgers a game ahead actually.
Who is looking ahead? The Boilermakers needed overtime (and lots of free throws) to beat Northwestern at home. Purdue has had big games all year and Wisconsin isn't their big rival or anything, so I doubt they were looking ahead. It's just that Northwestern kind of has their number; they know how to negate Zack Edey and disrupt the offense to some extent. They beat them earlier this year and once last year, too. Wisconsin hasn't played this week yet (they face Nebraska Thursday evening). At the risk of being boring and taking all four favorites, I see Purdue winning.
UPDATE: Wisconsin lost their game at Nebraska, in overtime. Looks like everyone is looking ahead!
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