Last week I noted that several of the teams in the huge weekend of AP-top-ten clashes had lost the game leading up to their big contests. Now it looks like instead of "Looking Ahead" the cliché for this week is going to be all about the "Hangover Loss." So far of the four big winners, two have lost their follow-up game:
- After beating Houston 78-65 on Saturday, Kansas fell in overtime at Kansas State Monday night
- And last night North Carolina, just days after topping rival Duke 93-84, lost to Clemson—at home!
If that's not a Hangover Loss I don't know what is. But what is a Hangover Loss anyway? Basically it's when a team loses after a "big game"—whether they won the big game or lost it, sports commentators tend to blame the big game itself. If the team lost the big game, then that loss "carries through" to their next loss—like a hangover. If they won the big game, then they "came down from their high" and stumbled. Sometimes that's called a "Letdown" instead. But a hangover can come from either having too much fun or a really rough night, so it applies to both the winner and the loser of the previous "big game."
It works the other way too: a team like Houston, who lost to Kansas last week, had a "Rebound Win" over Oklahoma State on Tuesday. As did Kentucky; following their loss to Tennessee, the Wildcats destroyed Vanderbilt 109-77.
So which games might really have been affected by the psychology in play? The Kansas loss might have been due to a let-down in emotion, but it was on the road at rival K-State, and in overtime. The Jayhawks aren't exactly a great road team, and that's more likely the bottom line. When a team plays pretty close to their capabilities, there's less "evidence" of a Hangover Loss or Rebound Win.
But North Carolina's loss is pretty suspect since they lost at home. They were "off" right from the start, too, falling behind 15-2 early. In fact the Tar Heels were guilty of BOTH a Hangover Loss AND Looking Ahead, since they lost to lowly Georgia Tech before the Duke win.
So who's next? Purdue doesn't play until Saturday which might help them dodge the Hangover syndrome. And the Boilermakers have won so much this year it's questionable how "big" the Wisconsin game really was to them—we count it just because it was a clash of AP top ten teams at the time.
Tennessee follows up their big win at Kentucky by hosting LSU tonight. If the Vols stumble at home vs. the Tigers, we can safely assert that it's a Hangover Loss.
The only teams left are Duke and Wisconsin, who might suffer Hangover Losses after getting beat by UNC and Purdue. But it's much more likely they have Rebound Wins—after all they face Notre Dame and Michigan respectively and should be safe victories. However, because their opponents are struggling so much—both are 7-15 right now—claiming a Rebound Win is going to be tough, unless the victory margin is 30 points.
But if either one loses—especially Duke, who is returning to play at home—I will be there to assert that it was a dreaded Hangover Loss.
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