A few weeks left and a couple of teams that thought they were in the clear might not be, but first, the top of the February 26th Dance Chance:
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/25 2/18 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 1. Houston B12 24-3 27-4 100.0 0.0 97.4 1 1 1 2. Purdue B10 25-3 27-4 100.0 0.0 97.0 1 1 1 3. Connecticut BE 25-3 27-4 100.0 0.0 82.7 1 1 1 4. Arizona P12 21-6 25-6 100.0 0.0 46.3 1 1 1 5. Tennessee SEC 21-6 24-7 100.0 0.0 27.7 2 2 2 6. Iowa St. B12 21-6 24-7 100.0 0.0 21.4 2 2 2 7. North Carolina ACC 21-6 24-7 100.0 0.0 12.7 2 2 2 8. Alabama SEC 19-8 22-9 100.0 +0.1 4.7 3 2 3 9. Kansas B12 21-6 23-8 100.0 0.0 0.9 2 3 2
Houston and Purdue have been neck-and-neck for a few weeks and this time the Cougars get the edge as the overall #1 seed. Houston beat 2-seed Iowa State at home and 4-seed Baylor on the road, a Strength of Schedule that's hard to compete with. Purdue for their part beat Rutgers and Michigan. Not quite the same. Both teams are near-locks for a 1-seed at 97%+. UConn started the week with a big loss (85-66) at Creighton but recovered with a 78-54 home win over Villanova and actually increased their 1-seed odds from 76% to 83%—mostly due to Arizona's home loss to Washington State. The Wildcats dropped from 70% to 46% 1-seed odds, making UConn's bid more certain and opening the door for others, potentially.
Who are those "others"? Tennessee is a great candidate, especially if they win the SEC and Arizona stumbles in the Pac-12 tournament. The Vols beat Missouri by just 5 points but crushed Texas A&M 86-51. Iowa State's 1-seed odds are pretty good despite the loss at Houston, mostly centering on the chance they have of winning the Big Twelve tournament. North Carolina is the last team with double digit odds but they really have to win the ACC tournament to have a shot at a 1-seed.
The only difference between our "snapshot" top seeds and the projection is that Kansas is currently a 2-seed and Alabama a 3-seed, and we expect those to swap. It's very close between these two; Alabama's win at Florida put them up to 100% tourney odds, but the subsequent big loss at Kentucky (117-95) drained their 1-seed odds from 13.7% to 4.7%. Kansas beat Texas in their only game last week and fell a seed for their trouble. We give them almost no shot at a 1-seed, mostly because their Strength (#16) doesn't give them much hope of winning the Big Twelve tournament.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/25 2/18 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 10. Marquette BE 21-6 23-8 100.0 +0.1 3.6 3 3 3 11. Auburn SEC 21-6 24-7 100.0 +0.1 4.9 3 3 3 12. Creighton BE 20-8 22-9 100.0 +0.7 0.2 3 3 4 13. Duke ACC 21-6 24-7 100.0 +0.1 0.2 4 4 3 14. Clemson ACC 19-8 22-9 99.9 +2.2 -- 4 4 5 15. San Diego St. MWC 21-7 23-8 99.8 +0.5 -- 4 4 4 16. Baylor B12 19-8 22-9 99.7 -0.2 0.3 4 4 4 17. Kentucky SEC 19-8 22-9 99.7 +4.6 -- 5 5 6 18. Illinois B10 20-7 22-9 98.6 -0.6 <0.1 5 5 4 19. BYU B12 19-8 21-10 97.7 -0.2 0.2 6 5 5
Four other teams joined the "100%" club this week. Marquette and Creighton both made it from the Big East; the Golden Eagles won twice while the Jays crushed 1-seed UConn 85-66 and not even an 80-66 loss to St. John's could halt their rise to a 3-seed (their 1-seed odds, however, went from 0.2% to 1.8% and back down to 0.2%). Auburn beat Georgia by 21 points on the road, and Duke sealed the deal with a 29-point win at Miami, followed by a loss at Wake Forest that knocked them down a seed.
Clemson added two wins and almost made it three ACC teams in the 100% column. San Diego State recovered from a loss at Utah State, beating Fresno 73-41 and holding their 4-seed. Baylor lost twice yet they held their 4-seed, as the losses were to 5-seed BYU (on the road) and 1-seed Houston (in overtime). Nowadays there is less seed-wise movement for losses and big wins, as BYU found out after they lost to Kansas State but held their 5-seed. Kentucky's big win over Alabama was offset by a loss to LSU, but the Wildcats still moved up a notch. Illinois lost to Penn State mid-week dropping the Illini to a 5-seed.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/25 2/18 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 20. Utah St. MWC 22-5 26-6 96.8 +10.8 -- 5 5 7 21. TCU B12 19-8 21-10 96.3 +4.1 -- 5 6 6 22. Colorado St. MWC 20-8 23-8 93.9 -1.6 -- 6 6 5 23. Wisconsin B10 18-9 20-11 93.6 +1.9 -- 6 6 6 24. New Mexico MWC 21-7 23-8 92.1 -3.6 -- 8 6 5 25. Wake Forest ACC 18-9 21-10 91.9 +22.4 -- 9 7 9 26. Washington St. P12 21-7 23-8 90.5 +16.4 -- 6 7 8 27. Saint Mary's WCC 23-6 25-6 89.6 +2.2 -- 8 7 7 28. Florida SEC 19-8 22-9 88.4 +5.2 -- 7 7 8
Three more Mountain West teams are 6-seeds or very close, starting with Utah State who beat San Diego State and moved from a 7-seed to the bottom 5-seed. Colorado State fell a seed after losing twice on the road, to New Mexico and UNLV. Beating the Rams temporarily gave New Mexico the top 5-seed, but losing at home to 9-17 Air Force dumped the Lobos down to the bottom 6-seed.
The biggest upward mover this week was Wake Forest, who beat Pitt 91-58 and then edged Duke 83-79, going from below 70% odds to over 90% odds. Washington State could have topped that but after beating 1-seed Arizona in Tucson the Cougars saw their 8-game win streak broken by Arizona State. Still, they're up a seed and over 90% in selection odds as well. Florida is surprisingly close to that level, too; the Gators took Alabama into overtime on the road before losing and beat Vanderbilt to rise to a 7-seed.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/25 2/18 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 29. Nebraska B10 20-8 22-9 88.0 +14.1 -- 7 8 8 30. Texas Tech B12 19-8 22-9 87.9 -1.5 -- 7 8 7 31. Nevada MWC 22-6 24-8 87.0 +7.8 -- 8 8 8 32. Dayton A10 21-5 24-6 85.8 -6.3 -- 7 8 6 33. Mississippi St. SEC 19-8 21-10 85.4 +17.0 -- 8 9 10 34. Boise St. MWC 19-8 21-10 82.5 +9.9 -- 9 9 9 35. Gonzaga WCC 22-6 23-7 76.8 +6.5 -- 9 9 9 36. South Carolina SEC 22-5 23-8 76.0 +11.3 -- 9 9 11 37. Oklahoma B12 19-8 20-11 74.5 +4.9 -- 10 10 9 38. Northwestern B10 19-8 21-10 64.5 +2.9 -- 10 10 11
Nebraska stayed an 8-seed but improved their odds 14% last week. Why did pedestrian wins over Indiana and Minnesota help so much? Because with just three games left plus the Big Ten tournament, they can't do worse than 20-12. Mississippi State won their 4th and 5th straight and added 17% to their odds, and gained a seed. And South Carolina beat Mississippi on the road, 72-59 and moved up two seeds; the worst they can end up is 22-10, so the doubts about their Strength are pretty much moot now.
Dayton took a hit with a loss at George Mason, costing them 2 seeds. The Flyers are still in good shape going into the home stretch and don't need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament—as of now.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/25 2/18 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 39. Michigan St. B10 17-11 19-12 61.4 -27.6 -- 10 7 40. Colorado P12 18-9 21-10 60.9 +15.2 -- 11p 10 41. Indiana St. MVC 24-5 26-5 60.7 +6.8 -- 10 11 12p 42. Florida Atlantic Amer 21-7 23-8 60.5 -6.8 -- 11 11 10 43. Seton Hall BE 18-9 20-11 58.4 +11.4 -- 10 11 44. Virginia ACC 20-8 21-10 57.4 -11.3 -- 11 11p 10 45. Texas B12 17-10 19-12 56.7 -8.9 -- 12p 11p 10 46. Pittsburgh ACC 18-9 20-11 55.6 -4.5 -- 12p 12p 11p 47. Drake MVC 23-6 24-7 52.1 -2.9 -- 11 12p 11 48. Providence BE 18-9 20-11 49.9 +15.4 -- 11p 49. Utah P12 16-11 19-12 45.1 -5.8 -- 12p 50. James Madison SB 26-3 28-3 40.0 +4.0 -- 12 12 12 51. Princeton Ivy 21-3 23-4 39.5 +2.9 -- 12 12 12 52. Villanova BE 15-12 17-14 33.9 -0.8 -- 53. McNeese St. Slnd 24-3 27-3 33.6 +2.2 -- 12 12 13 54. Samford SC 25-4 27-4 31.1 +5.5 -- 13 13 13 55. St. John's BE 16-12 18-13 28.7 +14.8 -- 56. Oregon P12 18-9 20-11 28.0 +4.2 -- 57. Butler BE 16-12 18-13 27.2 -12.5 -- 58. Cincinnati B12 16-11 18-13 25.7 -31.7 -- 11p
Let's talk about The Bubble, starting with Michigan State who last week looked to be in the clear but lost not once but TWICE at home, to Iowa and Ohio State, knocking their projected seed from 7 to 10 and even knocking the Spartans back out of the "snapshot" seedings. If Selection Sunday were today, Michigan State would be left out. Odds are they play themselves back in but wow, two home losses in a row from a strong home team, very odd. They don't play again until Saturday at Purdue.
And what about Florida Atlantic? The Owls lost another American Athletic conference game, this time to hot-and-cold Memphis, dropping them to an 11-seed and one spot below Indiana State of the Missouri Valley, interestingly. Most people wouldn't have the Sycamores ahead of the Owls but their résumés—both wins and losses—are similar and Indiana State is 4 spots ahead in the NET rankings. Still, the Bracket Project consortium has FAU a low 8-seed and Indiana State a low 11-seed.
Colorado and Seton Hall enter the seedings this week. The Buffaloes beat USC in double overtime then beat another bubble Pac-12 team, Utah, 89-65 which was enough to drop the Utes from the Last Four In to the First Four Out. Seton Hall added wins over St. John's and Butler.
Last Four In: Virginia, Texas, Pitt, and Drake all survived losses and held on as play-in teams. The Cavaliers lost twice, to Virginia Tech and North Carolina, while Pitt lost to Wake Forest and beat Virginia Tech. Texas lost to Kansas on the road, while Drake fell to Northern Iowa.
First Four Out is basically the Big East: Other than the aforementioned Utah, the rest of the First Four Out are all from the Big East (assuming we skip auto-bids James Madison and Princeton). Providence would be in the tournament if selected today; Villanova still has a shot due to their schedule (including Providence and Seton Hall, with Creighton at home); and St. John's upset Creighton 80-66 on Sunday to give them the boost they needed at the right time. Will it last? We'll see. Another Big East team, Butler, took a hit with their 3rd and 4th losses in a row but no team from this league is out until the Big East tournament is over.
Oregon is one of the few Pac-12 teams still in contention, and Cincinnati was one of many Big Twelve teams that looked solid last week but the home loss to Oklahoma State knocked them off the upper bubble, and the 75-57 followup loss to TCU made it worse. From 57.4% to 25.7% in one week hurts, but he Bearcats have a chance on Tuesday to get it all back when they play at Houston. Wish them luck!
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/25 2/18 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 59. Grand Canyon WAC 24-4 27-5 24.8 -21.7 -- 13 13 12 60. Mississippi SEC 19-8 21-10 24.3 -14.0 -- 61. Ohio St. B10 16-12 18-13 23.1 +4.1 -- 62. Iowa B10 16-12 18-13 21.4 +9.2 -- 63. SMU Amer 19-9 22-9 21.3 -19.3 -- 64. Virginia Tech ACC 15-12 18-13 20.5 +2.7 -- 65. Syracuse ACC 18-10 19-12 18.0 +6.4 -- 66. Texas A&M SEC 15-12 17-14 13.9 -31.5 -- 67. Memphis Amer 20-8 22-9 12.6 +4.4 -- 68. San Francisco WCC 22-7 23-8 11.5 -2.0 -- 69. Kansas St. B12 16-11 17-14 10.9 +6.3 -- 70. N.C. State ACC 17-10 18-13 10.3 -6.9 --
Above are teams who are mostly out of luck now, but not hopeless. Grand Canyon was nearing the waterline each week and building a 24-2 record but the Antelopes lost not once but TWICE last week, to Tarleton State and Abilene Christian, doubling their losses for the year and cutting in half their odds for an at-large bid. The 'Lopes are still heavy favorites to win the WAC tournament but if they don't, that's it.
Mississippi has been a winning team all year but never looked good enough to keep it going; the best they did was to get to the First Four Out, though they defied the "Chalk" prediction that they would win only 3 conference games. The Rebels have lost 5 of their last 6 in SEC play including a loss to rival Mississippi State and a home loss to hi-Success low-Strength counterpart South Carolina. Conference-mate Texas A&M is on a 4-game losing skid of their own, with the home loss to Arkansas being the main factor in their 31.5% drop this week. They also lost to Tennessee by 35, which didn't help.
Ohio State and Iowa both beat Michigan State in East Lansing last week, and naturally both moved up but that was tempered by losses in their other game, with both now standing at 16-12, projected to be 18-13, and each with about a 1 in 5 shot at making the tournament. It's more amazing that the Buckeyes are still in it despite having a season bad enough to get their coach fired, but they've beaten Purdue and Michigan State since that happened.
Virginia Tech and Syracuse are neck and neck for a bid from the ACC. The Hokies made a statement in beating Virginia 75-41 but losing to Pitt 79-64 reduced the impact. The Orange beat NC State (who fell to about a 10% chance) and Notre Dame last week and now have a winning record in the ACC. The teams play each other on Tuesday.
SMU and Memphis have been the American Athletic conference's hopes for a 2nd bid this season, even as they languish in 5th and 6th place in the league. Memphis added two wins including a huge win over FAU but it only resulted in a small bump above 12%. SMU, on the other hand, lost twice (to FAU and USF) and dropped from 40% odds to nearly 20%.
Can San Francisco give the WCC a third bid? They're 22-7 but their odds have been dwindling each week as the big wins they need have not manifested. They had a chance last week but lost to St. Mary's in a close one, 70-66 on the road. They play Gonzaga on Thursday and that will be their last shot at making something happen until the WCC tournament.
Kansas State upset BYU and got a good boost from it, but they're still near 10% odds at 16-11. They'll need a good Big Twelve tournament run even if they upset Kansas and Iowa State in their last regular season games.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/25 2/18 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 77. UCF B12 14-12 15-15 1.1 -1.9 -- 79. Miami FL ACC 15-13 16-15 0.4 -7.9 -- 80. VCU A10 18-9 20-11 0.4 -3.0 -- 81. UC Irvine BW 20-8 24-8 0.3 -2.4 -- 13 13 13 82. Georgia SEC 15-12 17-14 0.3 -0.4 -- 83. South Florida Amer 21-5 23-6 0.2 -0.2 -- 84. Boston College ACC 15-12 17-14 0.1 -3.3 -- 85. Xavier BE 13-14 15-16 0.1 -7.1 -- 86. LSU SEC 14-13 17-14 <0.1 -1.6 -- 87. Rutgers B10 14-13 15-16 <0.1 -1.1 -- 88. Florida St. ACC 14-13 16-15 <0.1 -0.5 -- 90. Yale Ivy 18-8 21-8 <0.1 -1.1 -- 97. Cornell Ivy 20-5 22-6 <0.1 -3.9 -- 103. Charlotte Amer 17-10 19-11 0.0 -0.1 -- 120. Indiana B10 14-13 15-16 0.0 -0.1 --
These teams all declined a larger amount than their remaining odds, let's see why.
UCF went 1-1 last week and actually upset Texas Tech. But at 14-12 there's not much room left. Miami lost at home to Duke (expected) and Georgia Tech (not) and lost most of their remaining hope at 15-13. VCU is 18-9 but that's not great for the Atlantic 10 this year; the loss to UMass (74-52) eroded most of their small hopes.
UC Irvine is still expected to make the tournament, just not from an at-large bid. Losing to UC San Diego, their 8th loss, pretty much shut that door. Georgia is 15-12 after losing to Auburn, their 7th loss in 8 games.
Somehow, South Florida fell from 0.4% to 0.2% after a great week where they beat UTSA and SMU. But our system has no love for the AAC-leading Bulls, who are now 21-5 and confounding braketologists who either have to put them as the auto-bid or leave them out. Their NET ranking is pretty abysmal, too (#84).
Major conference woes: Boston College? From 3.4% to 0.1% after losses to FSU and NC State put them at 15-12. Xavier is now underwater at 13-14, going from 7.1% to 0.1%. LSU upset Kentucky last week but the follow-up loss to Mississippi State, at home by 20, dropped them from 1.6% to under 0.1%. Rutgers is another casualty, losing to Purdue and Maryland to sit at 14-13. Florida State is much, much better than last year's team but at 14-13 their tourney hopes are all but zero.
Still not quite zero! Yale is a respectable 18-8 but even winning out and losing in the Ivy League finals won't make them anything but a long shot. Cornell lost to Yale last week and is in the same boat despite a 20-5 record. Yale Strength is much better, so their odds of actually winning out tops Cornell's odd.
No hope at all? Charlotte lost to Memphis and Tulsa, and despite being 3rd in the AAC we don't give them a chance of an at-large bid any more. Indiana falls worse after losses to Nebraska and Penn State; it's time to turn out the lights, the 14-13 Hoosiers either win the Big Ten tournament or hope to finish above .500 for the NIT.
Comments