The Committee has spoken, and their Preliminary Top 16 consecrated all four of our #1 seed projections—including the overall top seed—and our top four seeds include 15 of the 16 teams they named. There are some discrepancies to note, so here we go:
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|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/18 2/11 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 1. Purdue B10 23-3 27-4 100.0 0.0 94.5 1 1 1 2. Houston B12 22-3 27-4 100.0 0.0 92.4 1 1 1 3. Connecticut BE 24-2 28-3 100.0 0.0 76.4 1 1 1 4. Arizona P12 20-5 26-5 100.0 0.0 70.2 1 1 1 5. Iowa St. B12 20-5 24-7 100.0 0.0 26.7 2 2 2 6. Tennessee SEC 19-6 23-8 100.0 +0.1 10.9 2 2 3 7. North Carolina ACC 20-6 24-7 100.0 0.0 5.9 2 2 2 8. Kansas B12 20-6 22-9 100.0 +0.1 0.8 2 2 3
Purdue remained our projected overall top seed despite the crazy loss to Ohio State on Sunday. The Boilermakers were the Committee's top seed, too, but that was announced before they fell to the Buckeyes, who had lost 9 of their last 11 games prior. OSU was probably on some kind of "new coach high" is all we can figure about the 73-69 win. Purdue remained at the very top but their "#1 seed odds" fell from 97.2% last week to 94.5%. Meanwhile Houston's 1-seed odds rose by 1.0% after beating Texas Saturday. UConn and Arizona round out our top seeds, with the Huskies adding 12.4% to their 1-seed odds after beating DePaul by 36 and Marquette by 28. The Wildcats couldn't quite match that but they tried, beating Arizona State by 45 to raise their 1-seed odds from 66.3% to 70.2%. The four 1-seeds are taking shape, but UConn and Arizona probably need to win their conference championships to get there, where Purdue and Houston might not have to.
Iowa State comes up our next most likely 1-seed, but the Committee has them a 3-seed right now. Instead as a 2-seed they have Marquette (again, this was before Saturday's action where the Eagles were destroyed by UConn). If the Cyclones want to make it to a 1-seed they need to do something dramatic, like beat Houston on the road tonight (Monday 19th). That and winning the Big Twelve would put them in the mix for sure. Tennessee (10.9%) would need to win the SEC tournament but at least the Vols made it to 100% this week after two dominant wins (+64 points combined) over punching bags Arkansas and Vandy. Also getting to 100% is Kansas, who lost big (79-50) to Texas Tech on the road, but also picked up a key road win over Oklahoma. The Jayhawks are seen as having very little chance in the Big Twelve tournament so their 1-seed odds are minuscule. And North Carolina's 1-seed odds plunged from 11.9% to 5.9% after a loss to Syracuse last Tuesday. But we, like the Committee, still have them at a 2-seed.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/18 2/11 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 9. Alabama SEC 18-7 23-8 >99.9 0.0 13.7 3 3 2 10. Marquette BE 19-6 23-8 >99.9 0.0 1.3 3 3 3 11. Auburn SEC 20-6 24-7 >99.9 0.0 1.7 3 3 2 12. Duke ACC 20-5 24-7 99.9 +2.0 0.4 4 3 4 13. Baylor B12 19-6 22-9 99.9 +0.9 3.6 3 4 4 14. Creighton BE 19-7 22-9 99.3 +3.2 0.2 4 4 4 15. San Diego St. MWC 20-6 24-7 99.3 +11.7 -- 4 4 6 16. Illinois B10 19-6 23-8 99.2 +4.1 0.3 4 4 5
The Committee also pretty much agreed with the Dance Chance in terms of 3- and 4-seeds, in particular that Alabama is the top 3-seed. Their 13.7% odds of getting a 1-seed reflect their Strength ranking (#4 currently after their 100-75 dispatching of Texas A&M) and the concomitant chance of winning the SEC tournament. Contrast that with Auburn, who is just a 4-seed by the Committee's early ranking, and who has just 1.7% shot at a 1-seed following their upset home loss to Kentucky. Previous to that, they crushed South Carolina 101-61 so Bruce Pearl's squad is running hot and cold rather than consistent. Duke just makes it into our 3-line after a couple workmanlike wins over Wake Forest and FSU.
Baylor is our top 4-seed while the Committee puts the Bears at a 3; we also have them a 3-seed if selections occurred today. They show a much better 1-seed shot (3.6%) than Kansas though, again due to Strength (#11 to KU's #17). San Diego State and Illinois both join our 4-seed line; the Aztecs are up from a 6-seed after beating 5-seeds Colorado State and New Mexico last week while the Illini added two less-significant wins. Both are 4-seeds by the Committee while Creighton was "considered" for a 4-seed but didn't get it. The Jays play UConn Tuesday night and a win would probably make the Committee reconsider.
Note Duke (0.3%) and SDSU's (0%) chance of a 1-seed. It looks like no Mountain West team is going to be considered no matter their finish, and if a team from the ACC gets a 1-seed it will be UNC. The same goes for the Big East (UConn or bust) and Big Ten (Purdue) and Pac-12 obviously with Arizona. Only the Big Twelve has several candidates and a (small) shot at two 1-seeds. The SEC has three strong teams and the tournament winner has a decent chance but there's no chance for two 1-seeds.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/18 2/11 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 17. BYU B12 18-7 22-9 97.9 -1.2 0.8 7 5 3 18. Clemson ACC 17-8 21-10 97.7 +2.4 -- 5 5 4 19. New Mexico MWC 20-6 24-7 95.7 +2.5 -- 5 5 5 20. Colorado St. MWC 20-6 24-7 95.5 +5.7 -- 5 5 5 21. Kentucky SEC 18-7 22-9 95.1 +19.7 -- 6 6 8 22. TCU B12 18-7 21-10 92.2 +8.1 -- 6 6 7 23. Dayton A10 21-4 25-5 92.1 +4.2 -- 5 6 6 24. Wisconsin B10 17-9 20-11 91.7 +4.4 -- 6 6 6 25. Texas Tech B12 18-7 22-9 89.4 +14.8 -- 7 7 9 26. Michigan St. B10 17-9 20-11 89.0 +9.6 -- 9 7 7 27. Saint Mary's WCC 21-6 24-7 87.4 +12.5 -- 7 7 8 28. Utah St. MWC 21-5 26-6 86.0 -3.5 -- 6 7 5 29. Florida SEC 18-7 22-9 83.2 +10.3 -- 7 8 9 30. Nevada MWC 20-6 24-8 79.2 +3.6 -- 8 8 8
The other team in the Committee's Sweet (pre-Selection Sunday) Sixteen was Wisconsin, whom we have as a 6-seed. The Badgers lost at Iowa in overtime on Saturday, their 5th loss in their last 6 games so it makes me wonder what the Committee's been smoking (maybe some overripe cheese?). Two other teams "considered" for the top 16 were Clemson, who appropriately slips to a 5-seed here after a home loss to NC State, and Dayton, who we have as a "snapshot" 5-seed but project as a 6-seed ultimately.
BYU took a fall this week due primarily to a loss to Oklahoma State but also to a narrow 90-88 win over Central Florida that hurt their forward-looking Strength rating. The Cougars grade out as a 7-seed right now, and are projected to work their way up only to a 5-seed instead of a 3-seed (as projected last week) partly because of that decrease in Strength—and also because time is running out, they only have 6 regular-season games left! Their Strength is still solid enough (#9) that they show a nearly 1% chance of making it all the way to a 1-seed, something that would require them to win the Big Twelve tournament certainly. They have 4-seed Baylor and 2-seeds Kansas and Iowa State still on their schedule, the latter two on the road.
In Mountain West action, New Mexico and Colorado State both survived a loss to new conference "champ" San Diego State and held at 5-seeds due to big wins over Nevada and Utah State, respectively, with the Lobos, Rams, Aztecs, and Wolf Pack all at 20-6! The 21-5 Aggies fell to a 7-seed from a 5-seed after the 75-55 loss to Colorado State.
Kentucky and Texas Tech were the big winners here. The Wildcats are up from an 8-seed to a 6-seed after beating 3-seed Auburn on the road (as well as drubbing Mississippi at home). The Red Raiders gained almost 15% in odds and two seeds despite falling at Iowa State on Saturday (as expected); prior to that, they beat Kansas 79-50 and were set to show up as a 6-seed. Not quite!
St. Mary's also added double digit Dance Chance odds, mostly a bump in Strength from beating Pepperdine 103-59. This makes their odds of winning out better—even though the odds still say they drop one of their last four outings. And the Florida Gators, a bubble team for most of the year, is looking like a solid tournament team now at 83.2% after winning 7 of their last 8 games.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/18 2/11 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 31. Washington St. P12 20-6 23-8 74.1 +9.9 -- 8 8 10 32. Nebraska B10 18-8 21-10 73.9 +8.8 -- 9 8 10 33. Boise St. MWC 17-8 21-10 72.6 +9.8 -- 10 9 11 34. Gonzaga WCC 20-6 23-7 70.3 +8.8 -- 11 9 11p 35. Oklahoma B12 18-8 20-11 69.6 -13.5 -- 10 9 7 36. Wake Forest ACC 16-9 20-11 69.5 -6.2 -- 11 9 7 37. Virginia ACC 20-6 22-9 68.7 -2.0 -- 8 10 9 38. Mississippi St. SEC 17-8 20-11 68.4 +1.0 -- 10 10 10 39. Florida Atlantic Amer 20-6 24-7 67.3 -6.9 -- 9 10 9 40. Texas B12 16-9 19-12 65.6 -4.6 -- 12p 10 10
Washington State is another hot team right now; the Cougars have won 7 straight and 10 of 11; they face 1-seed Arizona on Thursday trying to sweep the series (they won 73-70 in the home contest). Also under-the-radar and moving from a 10-seed to an 8-seed is Nebraska, who beat Penn State at home (which is not impressive) by 19 points (which is impressive). The Cornhuskers' last five games are all winnable.
Lots of movement onto the 9-seed line, from below and above. Boise State and Gonzaga improved their lot, the Broncos beating Fresno State 90-66 and the Zags winning 91-74 and 102-76 (thought the latter home win, over #349-Strength Pacific, was a slight underperformance!). But Oklahoma and Wake Forest dropped down two seeds each, the former due to losses to 4-seed Baylor and 2-seed Kansas (at home), the latter due to losses to 3-seed Duke and 10-seed Virginia.
The Cavaliers also fell despite that win, as they were upset by Pittsburgh a few days earlier. And Florida Atlantic dropped a seed with another loss in the American Athletic, this time to South Florida. The Owls viability as an at-large team is starting to look shaky; right now they're probably safe without winning their conference tournament, but they can't lose too many more and still say that.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/18 2/11 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 41. South Carolina SEC 21-5 23-8 64.7 -11.0 -- 8 11 8 42. Northwestern B10 18-8 21-10 61.6 +0.1 -- 10 11 11 43. Pittsburgh ACC 17-8 20-11 60.1 +23.9 -- 12p 11p 44. Cincinnati B12 16-9 19-12 57.4 -2.0 -- 12p 11p 11p 45. Drake MVC 22-5 25-6 55.0 +5.1 -- 9 11 46. Indiana St. MVC 22-5 26-5 53.9 -33.7 -- 11 12p 6 47. Utah P12 16-10 19-12 50.9 -6.9 -- 12p 12p 48. Seton Hall BE 17-9 19-12 47.0 +24.1 -- 49. Grand Canyon WAC 24-2 29-3 46.5 +1.3 -- 11 12 12 50. Colorado P12 17-9 21-10 45.7 -5.9 -- 51. Texas A&M SEC 15-10 18-13 45.4 -17.0 -- 11 52. SMU Amer 19-7 23-8 40.6 +6.6 -- 53. Butler BE 16-10 19-12 39.7 -18.7 -- 12p 54. Mississippi SEC 19-6 21-10 38.3 -5.5 -- 12p
Bubble teams: First, let's look at the 800-lb elephant in the room (someone isn't feeding that elephant, btw) Indiana State, who lost twice last week and fell from a projected 6-seed all the way to an 12-seed play-in team, losing 33.7% of their at-large odds. It wasn't the road loss to 17-10 Southern Illinois that did the damage, but the home loss to 13-14 Illinois State. That loss dropped them to an 11-seed mid-week, down 26.5% already before the 2nd loss added to their woes. I think the Sycamores were distracted by their entry into the AP top 25. Whatever the cause, a team in a conference like the Missouri Valley going from 3 losses to 5 losses is a big deal. They're now 1 spot behind Drake and both aren't getting in. The Bulldogs enter our seeding for the first time in quite a while, and in current snapshot they're at a 9-seed.
Also entering the seedings is Pittsburgh, fresh off a win at Virginia and an 86-59 beatdown of Louisville. Dropping out are Texas A&M, who lost to Vanderbilt by a point and Alabama by 25 points, and are just 15-10. Their odds drop from 62% to 45%. Butler also has 10 losses now and their odds fell from 59% to around 40% following losses to Marquette and Creighton, both at home, the latter by 22 points. Those aren't games the Bulldogs were expected to win, but playing at home they had a decent chance in both, and their odds of making the tournament depends on winning some games like that; those opportunities are gone now.
South Carolina hid a big bump in the road, taking on loss #4 and #5 last week. The loss to Auburn wasn't unexpected but they fell by 40 points; maybe that caused a hangover to the 1-point home loss to LSU and that's what really hurt them. They're still in a lot better shape than Mississippi, the other SEC team with a schizm between Success and Strength. The Rebels broke a 3-game skid with a narrow home win over Missouri but they're still projected to come up a bit short (despite showing as Last Four In team in the current "snapshot").
Other teams on the wrong side of the waterline include Seton Hall, who makes a huge upward move this week from 23% to 47% odds after topping Xavier and St. John's. 17-9 might not sound so great but it's a lot better than 15-9. When a team's record is too close to .500 it's much harder to make a case as an at-large, especially when you add in the expected loss in the conference tournament. Grand Canyon would be in if the tournament selected today, but even one more loss puts them on the outside needing a WAC title to get in. For a minor conference, the difference between having 2 and 3 losses can be immense.
Colorado is also in the First Four Out at the moment, with Utah being the Last Team In. The Pac-12 has just one certainty (Arizona) and one team looking very good now (Washington State). The Buffaloes and the Utes play on Saturday in a very important Bubble game.
|| Record || Dance Chance || Seed 2/18 2/11 Rank Team Conf Curr Proj %Odds %Chg 1-seed Snap Proj Proj 59. McNeese St. Slnd 23-3 28-3 31.4 +11.3 -- 12 13 13 62. Ohio St. B10 15-11 17-14 19.0 +11.2 -- 64. N.C. State ACC 16-9 18-13 17.2 +10.0 -- 65. St. John's BE 14-12 18-13 13.9 -24.7 -- 72. Miami FL ACC 15-11 17-14 8.3 -15.2 -- 73. Memphis Amer 18-8 21-10 8.2 -14.1 -- 74. Xavier BE 13-12 16-15 7.2 -9.6 -- 103. UCLA P12 14-12 16-15 <0.1 0.0 -- 108. North Texas Amer 14-11 18-12 0.0 -0.6 -- 126. Penn St. B10 12-14 14-17 0.0 -0.1 --
Here are some more teams making moves of note. McNeese State has been hanging around the bottom of the bubble ever since upsetting Michigan in Ann Arbor last December, but never making it to true at-large range. They've only lost once since then and if they can win out they might be in position for an at-large, but the conundrum for minor conferences is in play here: a loss in their tournament might put them back out, while winning the tournament makes them an auto-bid.
Ohio State scored the big win of the week, beating Purdue. The Buckeyes' odds had fallen to 3.9% mid-week after their loss to Wisconsin, but they're back in play—sort of—after beating the Boilermakers. They're still just 15-11 so unless their "new coach effect" carries through the Big Ten tournament they're still a long shot. But their last five games are pretty winnable—if, in fact, they've found new life rather than just a temporary jump-start. Penn State, on the other hand, dropped to 0.0% after falling to 12-14. The drop was pretty far, as #126 is well out of the 0.1% range. The Lions fell to Michigan State at home and Nebraska (by 19) on the road, so it's a number of factors—mostly that they project to 14-17 now and squandered the opportunity those two games afforded them.
North Texas fell to 0.0% as well, all the way from a reasonable 0.6%, also a big plunge. The Mean Green actually beat Memphis on Thursday, so the entire plunge to 0.0 was caused by the 71-62 loss to UAB. They were favored in that game, and when you're 14-10 you need to win those I guess. Speaking of the American, Memphis took another hit in odds, falling 14.1% to just 8.2% as the Tigers lost not only to the Mean Green but also to SMU, 106-79. Once a projected 7-seed at 10-2, the Tigers were cursed by Ken Pomeroy who declared them overrated, after which they went on a 4-game skid.
Big East busts: Xavier skidded almost 10% but it was St. John's who fell the most, dropping almost 25% to just 13.9% odds after losses to Providence and Seton Hall put them at 14-12. The Musketeers are even worse at 13-12 and 7.2%. You can't win em all but you have to win some of the tough ones, and neither team has lately: The Red Storm have lost 8 of 10 and Xavier 4 out of 7—though they did beat St. John's a few weeks ago.
The ACC actually has a team in the plus column: NC State, who beat 5-seed Clemson on the road, 78-77 after trailing almost all the 2nd half. They're offset by Miami, another team cursed by Pomeroy, who lost to Clemson and Boston College, their 4th loss in a row. They face Duke and North Carolina in their last 5 games, which is daunting but the opportunity of those games is responsible for most of their remaining 8.3% at-large hope.
And I was hoping to talk about UCLA this week and their 7-game win streak in Pac-12 play but they lost to Utah by a point, so instead of having a measurable at-large percentage, they're still in the <0.1% limbo. It's miraculous that they've held on this long after starting 6-10. They're clearly a better team now: they lost to Utah by 46 points a month ago.
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