Here's a quick and dirty week 9 recap:
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/07 12/31 1. Purdue B10 14-1 28-3 30-1 >99.9 +0.3 1 1 2. Arizona P12 12-3 27-4 28-3 >99.9 +0.7 1 1 3. Houston B12 14-0 28-3 30-1 99.9 +0.3 1 1 4. BYU B12 12-2 25-6 28-3 96.6 -1.3 1 1
Purdue narrowly holds onto the overall top seed as a rebounding Arizona team blasted seeded Pac-12 foes Colorado (97-50) and Utah (92-73). The Boilermakers beat a couple of Big Ten foes including Illinois. Houston kept pace with an 89-55 win over West Virginia to start their first Big 12 season.
BYU was odd man out; they lost their very first Big 12 contest, 71-60 to Cincy—at home—and fell slightly in Dance Chance percentage, but held their 1-seed. Next up? Baylor on Tuesday, on the road.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/07 12/31 5. Alabama SEC 9-5 23-8 26-5 95.0 -0.5 2 2 6. Tennessee SEC 11-3 24-7 26-5 94.2 +10.4 2 4 7. North Carolina ACC 11-3 24-7 27-4 94.1 +11.2 2 4 8. Connecticut BE 13-2 24-7 27-4 91.6 +9.3 2 4 9. Auburn SEC 12-2 25-6 26-5 89.0 +8.8 3 5 10. Colorado St. MWC 13-2 26-5 28-3 89.0 -0.7 3 2 11. Iowa St. B12 11-3 23-8 24-7 88.8 -1.8 3 2 12. Illinois B10 11-3 24-7 25-6 88.2 +9.4 3 5
While the 1-seeds stayed the same, there were THREE new 2-seeds, all three jumping from the 4-line. Tennessee handed Ole Miss their first loss (more on that at the very bottom of the article) and put them within inches of Alabama as the SEC favorite. The Tide lost a touch of luster with a 78-75 win over Vandy but remain the top 2-seed. North Carolina became the ACC favorite once again after winning road games vs. Pitt and Clemson both by double digits. And UConn regained their status as Big East favorites by dispatching DePaul by 29 and Butler on the road.
Two teams made a big jump into the 3-line from the 5-line. Auburn beat Penn by 20 and then crushed Arkansas by 32 points at Arkansas. This pushed the Tigers' Strength ranking into the top 10 and their Dance Chance projection followed. In the Big Ten, Illinois followed a 96-66 win over Northwestern with a strong showing at Purdue where they fell 83-78, a loss that was very much expected so it didn't prevent them from moving up.
There were actually FOUR new three seeds, but two were teams dropping from the 2-line: Colorado State (narrow losers to Utah State on the road) and Iowa State (fell 71-63 at Oklahoma).
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/07 12/31 13. Creighton BE 11-4 23-8 26-5 88.1 +3.9 4 3 14. Duke ACC 11-3 24-7 27-4 88.0 +3.8 4 3 15. Marquette BE 11-4 22-9 25-6 87.1 +1.4 4 3 16. Baylor B12 12-2 23-8 26-5 86.8 +5.6 4 5 17. Kentucky SEC 11-2 23-8 25-6 84.0 +7.6 5 6 18. Wisconsin B10 11-3 22-9 26-5 82.3 +12.9 5 7 19. Clemson ACC 11-3 23-8 26-5 82.0 -7.6 5 2 20. Utah St. MWC 14-1 27-6 29-4 81.1 +13.8 5 7 21. Florida Atlantic Amer 11-4 25-6 27-4 79.7 -2.6 6 4 22. Kansas B12 13-1 22-9 22-9 77.9 +10.9 6 7 23. Oklahoma B12 13-1 23-8 23-8 77.6 +15.6 6 9 24. Dayton A10 12-2 25-5 28-2 77.3 +11.1 6 8
Creighton, Duke, and Marquette all gained percentage-wise but fell to the 4-seed line; only Marquette lost (at Seton Hall, 78-75). The 5-line was more active, with Wisconsin and Utah State up 2 seeds and Clemson down from a 2-seed. The Tigers lost twice last week, to Miami and North Carolina; while they were never expected to go undefeated in the ACC, two losses—one by 17, the other at home by 10—is excessive for the first two conference games. Wisconsin had workmanlike home wins over Iowa and Nebraska, while Utah State beat Air Force 88-60 and 3-seed Colorado State 77-72.
Florida Atlantic stumbled yet again; like many strong mid-Majors, there seems to be a wide variation in their level of play. This time it was Charlotte, 70-68 on the road, so not as bad as the FGCU loss but they start out just 1-1 in the AAC and fall another 2 seeds. Oklahoma made a strong 3-line move up after beating 3-seed Iowa State, Kansas moved up one seed after holding on vs. TCU at home 83-81, and Dayton was up from an 8-seed after two wins (Davidson and UMass) to start the Atlantic 10 season. I'm pretty sure the Flyers' move had as much to do with Cincinnati (whom they beat in December) upsetting BYU as anything else.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/07 12/31 25. San Diego St. MWC 13-2 23-8 24-7 75.6 +5.2 7 6 26. New Mexico MWC 13-2 24-7 26-5 75.1 -2.0 7 5 27. Cincinnati B12 12-2 22-9 21-10 73.0 +23.0 7 11 28. Utah P12 11-4 22-9 25-6 72.1 -12.6 7 3 29. Nevada MWC 14-1 25-7 26-6 71.9 +4.9 8 8 30. Princeton Ivy 13-1 24-3 26-1 71.6 +6.7 8 9 31. Indiana St. MVC 13-2 27-4 29-2 70.2 +4.4 8 8 32. Michigan St. B10 9-6 20-11 22-9 67.5 -2.9 8 6 33. Miami FL ACC 11-3 21-10 24-7 64.0 +13.9 9 11 34. Villanova BE 10-5 19-12 17-14 62.9 +2.3 9 10 35. St. John's BE 11-4 21-10 20-11 62.3 +18.2 9 36. Memphis Amer 13-2 24-7 25-6 59.1 -6.5 9 8 37. Wake Forest ACC 11-3 21-10 23-8 56.7 +8.0 10 11
Speaking of Cincinnati, here they are on the 7-line, all the way up from an 11-seed after beating 1-seed BYU. Just like that, Cincy is a team to be scared of in the Big 12, as if that conference didn't have enough to worry about from adding Houston and BYU. Utah hits the 7-line from the other direction, falling from a 3-seed after getting crushed by Arizona by 29. That hurt, but what really dropped them was the game two days before that—a 82-70 loss to Arizona State. They were supposed to split the road trip, not go 0-2.
Two Mountain West teams also fall onto 7-line: San Diego State, who won twice and gained 5.2% in Dance Chance odds, and New Mexico, who fell to Colorado State last Tuesday but recovered to beat Wyoming.
Just when it looked like Michigan State was hitting its stride the Spartans lost badly at Northwestern, 88-74, and fell to an 8-seed. Meanwhile Miami is up a couple of seeds after beating Clemson 95-82, and then taking 10-seed Wake Forest into overtime before losing on the road. St. John's joins the seedings ahead of both of them, jumping in at a 9-seed after beating Butler at home and fellow 9-seed Villanova on the road.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/07 12/31 38. Texas Tech B12 12-2 21-10 22-9 55.3 +18.4 10 39. Ohio St. B10 12-3 21-10 22-9 54.6 -9.4 10 9 40. Saint Mary's WCC 11-6 22-9 23-8 53.0 -4.6 10 10 41. Gonzaga WCC 11-4 23-7 23-7 52.9 +7.1 11 12p 42. Mississippi St. SEC 11-3 20-11 19-12 52.4 +0.1 11 10 43. Texas A&M SEC 9-5 19-12 21-10 51.3 -20.9 11 6 44. Colorado P12 11-4 21-10 24-7 51.1 -17.8 11 7 45. Florida SEC 10-4 20-11 21-10 48.7 -1.9 12p 11 46. TCU B12 11-3 19-12 20-11 46.8 +6.8 12p 47. SMU Amer 10-5 23-8 25-6 45.8 +0.4 12p 12p 48. South Carolina SEC 13-1 21-10 21-10 45.6 +6.9 12p 49. Providence BE 11-4 19-12 17-14 44.8 -0.2 12p 50. Pittsburgh ACC 10-5 20-11 21-10 43.8 -10.8 10 51. James Madison SB 14-1 27-3 29-1 42.5 -18.9 12 9 52. Grand Canyon WAC 14-1 27-5 31-1 40.4 +1.6 12 13 53. San Francisco WCC 12-4 23-8 25-6 38.8 -9.6 12 64. Washington P12 9-6 19-12 22-9 30.3 -14.5 12p
Lots of ground to cover here:
- Texas Tech is IN as a 10-seed after beat Texas 78-67 in Austin. The Longhorns were ranked #20 in the AP but weren't in our seedings at all; they are now #54 in Strength and have a 29.8% Dance Chance, down 3.4% from last week.
- Texas A&M is DOWN 5 seed lines to an 11-seed after losing to struggling LSU at home 68-53. The upset knocked their projection from 21-10 to 19-12 and their "chalk" from 24-7 to 21-10.
- Colorado fell from a 7-seed to an 11 after losing to both Arizona teams—just like Utah did. But in this case I think the Arizona game was worse for them. Even though it was an expected loss, it wasn't expected to be 97-50! Just FYI, with the two wins Arizona State gained 5.9%, up to a 7.9% Dance Chance from last week's 2.0%. The Sun Devils are projected to go 16-15.
- Yet another Texas team: TCU joined as a 12-seed play-in team despite their loss to Kansas. It was very close—two points—and at Allen Fieldhouse, so it boosted their Strength rating and their outlook.
- South Carolina joins as the Last Team In after beating 11-seed Mississippi State 68-62 for a 13-1 start. They're expected to loss more games than they win from here on out so it's going to be very close for the Gamecocks.
Below the line:
- Providence suffered a major setback, losing to Seton Hall 61-57 at home and also losing star player Bryce Hopkins for the season. They missed him in the following game at Creighton, a 69-60 loss.
- Pittsburgh fell out from a 10-seed after losing at home to North Carolina and beating Louisville to start 1-3 in ACC play.
- James Madison is now a 12-seed, but only because they're favored to win the Sun Belt. Last week they were a 9-seed with a decent shot to get an at-large bid if they needed it, but a major upset loss to Southern Miss ended their perfect season and dropped them below the at-large line.
- San Francisco's bid to join the elite of the West Coast Conference suffered a setback as the Dons needed overtime to top lowly Pacific (#357 out of 362 in Strength!) It was enough to drop them almost 10% in Dance Chance odds. Meanwhile Gonzaga recovered to an 11-seed with two typical WCC wins (by 26 and 27 points) and St. Mary's held their 10-seed.
- and finally Washington lost almost 15% and fell wayyyy out of the seedings after losing to Oregon at home. It was close, and they even recovered to beat Oregon State on Saturday, but I suspect the fact that so many previous opponents lost and/or lost badly (Colorado State, Colorado, Utah) that it affected their Strength rating; it fell from #37 to #50 last week.
60. McNeese St. Slnd 12-2 28-3 29-2 34.2 -9.3 13 12 75. Mississippi SEC 13-1 19-12 16-15 23.5 -3.4
Two more interesting teams to end this week with. Last week's darling McNeese State dropped almost 10%. They were nearing the seed-line after beating Michigan but were lukewarm against TAMU Commerce, winning by just 6 points. That did ding their Strength rating a bit, but it's also important to note that Michigan's slide continued. The Wolverines fell another 6.9% to just 4.7% Dance Chance odds after losing at home to Minnesota and to Penn State on the road. That in turn diminishes the Cowboys' biggest win, and is probably the reason they fall so much despite winning two more games. They don't really have much on their schedule to improve their standing, either, and are pretty much priced to perfection, that is, they're favored in every game and only expected to slip up maybe once.
And Mississippi finally lost, like James Madison did; the difference is that the Rebels' loss to Tennessee was not an upset and therefore they fell just 3.4%. Looking at the Rebels' future it's not hard to think they might be the LSU of 2024 (the Tigers started out 12-1 but lost 14 straight and only won two games after that hot start). Mississippi does have a few good wins (Memphis and NC State) and rank a lot better in Strength (#94) than LSU did last year (#142) though at this time last year LSU was #109. There aren't a lot of games Ole Miss will be favored in—they should end up 16-15 game by game, though many of those are close losses so we expect a 19-12 finish. Either way, not good enough for an at-large bid but they control their destiny starting off 13-1.
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