It's a new year and with it our Dance Chance projections are based only on this season's results. No more hedging for last year's results.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 1. Purdue B10 12-1 28-3 30-1 99.6 -0.1 1 1 2. Houston B12 13-0 28-3 30-1 99.6 +1.5 1 1 3. Arizona P12 10-3 26-5 28-3 99.2 -0.3 1 1 4. BYU B12 12-1 27-4 30-1 97.9 +3.2 1 1
No change in the top seeds, but that doesn't mean nothing happened. Last week Arizona was neck and neck with Purdue for the top overall seed but now it's Houston at a close #2. What happened was the Wildcats were upset badly by lowly Stanford, 100-82. It wasn't enough to knock them out of the top four—not even close, really—but they lost a bit of Dance Chance certainty with their 3rd loss in 5 games and the Cougars—who beat Penn last week 81-42—moved up to be essentially tied with the Boilermakers at the top. Apparently their win over Utah gained a lot of value, too, as we'll see later. The other Big 12 Cougars (BYU) are a distant #4 but still a solid 1-seed.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 5. Alabama SEC 8-5 23-8 26-5 95.5 +5.2 2 2 6. Iowa St. B12 11-2 24-7 25-6 90.6 -1.1 2 2 7. Colorado St. MWC 12-1 26-5 29-2 89.7 +9.9 2 4 8. Clemson ACC 11-1 25-6 28-3 89.6 +7.5 2 3 9. Marquette BE 11-3 23-8 26-5 85.7 +4.4 3 4 10. Utah P12 11-2 24-7 26-5 84.7 +19.1 3 7 11. Duke ACC 9-3 24-7 27-4 84.2 +1.6 3 3 12. Creighton BE 9-4 23-8 26-5 84.2 +1.4 3 3
Most of the teams here had mop-up duty against overmatched opponents, but Marquette did beat 3-seed Creighton 72-67 at home, a result that was pretty much expected. The Golden Eagles still moved up a seed while the Bluejays stayed put.
Colorado State apparently hit a tipping poing where the close games are all now projected to fall their way: their "chalk" projection jumped from 26-5 to 29-2. Those are all close wins, so they're still expected to finish about 26-5 but their potential increased and the boost jumped them from a 4-seed to a 2-seed firmly in control of the Mountain West.
Utah won two games last week, beating both Washington squads to start the Big Twelve season in style. In particular the 80-58 win over Washington State impressed our power ratings and the Utes jump from a 7-seed to a 3-seed (it also looks like I had them a game short in the future schedule, so it's like they added an extra game. Oops!)
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 13. Tennessee SEC 9-3 22-9 24-7 83.8 +1.5 4 3 14. North Carolina ACC 9-3 22-9 26-5 82.9 +5.0 4 4 15. Florida Atlantic Amer 10-3 26-5 28-3 82.3 -8.1 4 2 16. Connecticut BE 11-2 23-8 27-4 82.3 -6.4 4 2 17. Baylor B12 10-2 23-8 25-6 81.2 +2.1 5 4 18. Auburn SEC 10-2 24-7 26-5 80.2 +8.7 5 6 19. Illinois B10 10-2 23-8 25-6 78.8 +3.4 5 5
UConn and Florida Atlantic dropped from 2-seeds to 4-seeds. For the Huskies it's nothing more than this year's reality setting in: they aren't the #1 team in Strength any more, and with all of last year's bias going away they drop a bit; they were the bottom 2-seed last week, the bottom 4-seed this week, without playing a game.
For the Owls the cause is more apparent: a shocking 72-68 loss to Florida Gulf Coast. And no, the Eagles are nothing like the Dunk City team from 10 years ago; they're 6-9 and ranked #246 in Strength this week. For FAU the game came one week after their huge double overtime win in Las Vegas over Arizona so we'll chalk it up to emotional exhaustion in the awkward week between holidays. it will still haunt them come seeding time, however.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 20. New Mexico MWC 12-1 25-6 26-5 77.1 +4.2 5 5 21. Kentucky SEC 10-2 23-8 25-6 76.4 +2.2 6 5 22. Texas A&M SEC 9-4 21-10 24-7 72.2 -0.2 6 6 23. Michigan St. B10 8-5 21-10 23-8 70.4 +11.2 6 10 24. San Diego St. MWC 11-2 23-8 24-7 70.4 +8.6 6 9 25. Wisconsin B10 9-3 21-10 24-7 69.4 +6.8 7 8 26. Colorado P12 11-2 23-8 25-6 68.9 +7.9 7 9 27. Utah St. MWC 12-1 26-7 28-5 67.3 -5.0 7 6 28. Kansas B12 12-1 21-10 23-8 67.0 -5.9 7 5 29. Nevada MWC 13-1 25-7 26-6 67.0 -1.3 8 7 30. Dayton A10 10-2 24-6 27-3 66.2 +4.2 8 9 31. Indiana St. MVC 11-2 26-5 29-2 65.8 -3.2 8 7 32. Memphis Amer 11-2 24-7 26-5 65.6 +0.3 8 7
The rest of the Mountain West is in this range, starting with 12-1 New Mexico at a 5-seed, 11-2 San Diego State at a 6-seed, 12-1 Utah State at 7, and 13-1 Nevada at 8. The Aztecs made a big 3 seed move up after beating Gonzaga on the road 84-74, while the others just floated around last week prior to conference games starting (these records are prior to yesterday's Colorado State win over New Mexico). The MWC is far and away the best Mid-Major conference, so much so that they're almost a Major as they were last year.
Other notable moves here include Michigan State, as the Spartans are finally seeming to reach their potential. They beat Indiana State 87-75, sending the Sycamores down a rung to an 8-seed while the Spartans themselves soared from a 10-seed to a 6-seed. Their losses to 9-seed James Madison and 7-seed Wisconsin no longer look as bad as they did at first, and their wins over Butler and 5-seed Baylor are looking more impressive.
Like Utah, Colorado beat both the Washington teams last week, which seems to be a formula for making a big upward move. The Buffs jump from a 9-seed to a 7-seed. But Kansas—12-1 and ranked #2 in the AP poll—falls to a 7-seed despite a strong win over Wichita State (86-67) in Kansas City last week. The Jayhawks are only #27 in Strength meaning 4 or 5 Big Twelve teams rank ahead of them. They only play BYU (#4 Strength) and Iowa State (#6) once but play Houston (#1) and Baylor (#8) twice.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 33. Princeton Ivy 12-1 24-3 26-1 64.9 +0.9 9 8 34. Ohio St. B10 11-2 22-9 24-7 64.0 +0.2 9 8 35. Oklahoma B12 12-1 22-10 22-10 62.0 -8.3 9 6 36. James Madison SB 13-0 28-2 30-0 61.4 +1.5 9 9 37. Villanova BE 9-4 20-11 19-12 60.6 +5.4 10 11 38. Saint Mary's WCC 9-6 22-9 23-8 57.6 +15.9 10 12p 39. Pittsburgh ACC 9-4 21-10 21-10 54.6 -3.7 10 10 40. Mississippi St. SEC 11-2 21-10 20-11 52.3 -7.0 10 10 41. Florida SEC 10-3 20-11 21-10 50.6 -2.1 11 11 42. Miami FL ACC 10-2 20-11 20-11 50.1 -1.2 11 11 43. Cincinnati B12 11-2 20-11 20-11 50.0 +3.2 11 11 44. Wake Forest ACC 9-3 20-11 21-10 48.7 +16.5 11 45. San Francisco WCC 11-4 24-7 25-6 48.4 +10.2 12 46. Gonzaga WCC 9-4 22-8 23-7 45.8 -17.7 12p 8
Oklahoma's lackluster 88-72 win over #344 Central Arkansas didn't impress our Strength ratings and as a result the Sooners fall to a 9-seed, but the real story here is the West Coast Conference.
Gonzaga's loss to San Diego State drops the Zags from an 8-seed all the way to a 12-seed play-in, and more significantly it makes them the #3 team in the WCC. St. Mary's, who struggled early in the season, seems to have righted the ship for the most part and their 66-46 win over Kent State moves them off the bubble to a 10-seed and makes the Gaels the favorite in the conference. Not only that, but San Francisco passes the Bulldogs too; the Dons jump into the seedings after crushing Mississippi Valley 92-42 and looks to split their home and away with the WCC stalwarts.
The other new entry here is 11-seed Wake Forest, 9-3 after beating Virginia Tech 86-63 in their first ACC game (they've since beaten Boston College to start 2-0).
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 47. SMU Amer 9-4 23-8 25-6 45.4 +10.5 12p 48. Providence BE 11-2 20-11 19-12 45.0 -0.1 12p 12p 49. Washington P12 8-5 20-11 24-7 44.8 +8.7 12p 50. Saint Joseph's A10 10-3 23-8 25-6 44.5 +9.9 51. St. John's BE 9-4 19-12 18-13 44.1 +7.9 52. McNeese St. Slnd 11-2 28-3 29-2 43.5 +23.4 12 13 53. Butler BE 10-3 19-12 19-12 43.2 +3.7 12p 54. Virginia ACC 10-3 20-11 20-11 40.6 -18.8 10 55. TCU B12 10-2 20-12 21-11 40.0 -5.6 12 56. Grand Canyon WAC 12-1 27-5 30-2 38.8 +1.5 13 12 57. South Carolina SEC 12-1 20-11 19-12 38.7 +3.2 58. Iowa B10 8-5 18-13 21-10 38.6 +0.6 59. Syracuse ACC 10-3 19-12 19-12 38.0 +4.6 60. Texas Tech B12 10-2 19-12 19-12 36.9 +4.2 61. Boise St. MWC 9-4 19-12 17-14 36.8 +3.4 62. Virginia Tech ACC 9-4 18-13 19-12 33.7 -8.9 12p
SMU and Washington move into the seedings, just barely as 12-seed play-ins. The Mustangs didn't play last week but shook off the remnants of last season's #186 Strength team from their projection and that helped quite a bit. In other words, our projection now actually believes that SMU is the top-50 team they've been playing like. Washington moves up for similar reasons: they were #98 in Strength last year and are #37 this year, so despite losing twice last week (to 3-seed Utah and 7-seed Colorado, both expected) the Huskies are the Last Team In right now.
St. Joseph's and St. John's are among the Last Four Out, both moving up in tournament odds as this year's results settle in (it didn't hurt that St. Joe's beat Loyola MD 97-56, either). But the big mover here is McNeese State of the Southland Conference. The Cowboys upset Michigan 87-76 making them 11-2 and putting them within striking distance of a "real" NCAA berth, not just the conference championship they're heavily favored (but not guaranteed) to get. This win is much more impressive than their 92-23 win over the Mississippi College for Women back in December, and they now have Will Wade coaching and have as many wins as they did all of last season when they ranked #337 in Strength. By the way the Wolverines, now 6-7, lost about 15% to stand at 11.6% odds.
Teams that fell off the seedline include Butler (who didn't play, and even increased their odds, but were "pushed" off the play-in line), ex-10 seed Virginia (lost 76-54 to 6-7 Notre Dame), TCU (also didn't play; their odds decrease is possibly the result of other Big 12 teams continuing to surge, making a successful conference season questionable) and Virginia Tech, who lost 86-63 to Wake Forest.
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