Week 12, not much in big upsets but still some movement near the top, and the bubble is starting to take form.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/28 01/21 1. Houston B12 18-2 27-4 29-2 100.0 +0.1 1 1 2. Purdue B10 19-2 28-3 29-2 100.0 0.0 1 1 3. Arizona P12 15-5 25-6 26-5 100.0 +0.1 1 1 4. Connecticut BE 18-2 27-4 28-3 >99.9 +0.8 1 2 5. North Carolina ACC 17-3 26-5 28-3 >99.9 +0.4 2 1 6. Tennessee SEC 15-4 24-7 26-5 99.8 +0.7 2 2 7. Iowa St. B12 16-4 23-8 25-6 99.7 +1.1 2 2 8. Alabama SEC 14-6 23-8 24-7 99.4 +2.8 2 3 9. BYU B12 15-5 24-7 25-6 98.7 +0.1 3 2 10. Auburn SEC 16-4 24-7 26-5 97.5 +0.6 3 3
Houston nabs the top 1-seed from Purdue by a whisker, looks like it will come down to the wire between these two right now. Both won twice last week but Houston's road win over former 2-seed BYU was the difference as they join the 100% club. Speaking of which, Arizona managed to get there despite losing a bad one to lowly Oregon State. The Wildcats' recovery win at Oregon was good enough to put them over the top.
And even though North Carolina won twice last week, beating Wake Forest and Florida State, Connecticut pushed them off the 1-line due to their monster 99-56 win over Xavier. That blowout (they led 38-7 at one point) only moved the Huskies up one spot in Strength but it clearly made their outlook rosier, and from a starting point of 18-2 that's pretty good.
Alabama's win over 3-seed Auburn boosted the Tide back to a 2-seed as BYU dropped a bit to a 3 and Auburn held their seed despite two losses last week. Not big movements, and nothing that couldn't be easily undone in the future—or the conference tournaments—but things are starting to take shape at the top of the bracket; these 10 teams are probably the only ones that have a realistic shot at a 1-seed. 2-seeds Tennessee and Iowa State both made progress, the latter by beating 5-seed Kansas as expected.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/28 01/21 11. New Mexico MWC 18-3 26-5 27-4 97.4 +8.9 3 5 12. Creighton BE 16-5 23-8 26-5 96.5 +2.8 3 3 13. Marquette BE 15-5 22-9 23-8 94.6 +2.8 4 4 14. Wisconsin B10 16-4 23-8 25-6 94.5 +5.0 4 4 15. Baylor B12 14-5 21-10 22-9 92.0 -1.1 4 3 16. Utah St. MWC 18-2 28-5 29-4 91.6 +7.3 4 6 17. Kansas B12 16-4 21-10 21-10 91.5 +5.3 5 5 18. Illinois B10 15-5 22-9 23-8 90.5 -1.9 5 4 19. Duke ACC 15-4 23-8 25-6 90.4 +1.3 5 4 20. TCU B12 15-5 22-9 23-8 88.3 +12.9 5 7
New Mexico is the star here, rising from a 5-seed and our leader in the very strong Mountain West. The Lobos beat San Jose State by 20 then crushed Nevada 89-55 Sunday night, giving our algorithm even more confidence in them. Utah State also jumps two seeds, from a 6 to a 4, after beating Boise State on the road in overtime to go 18-2. The Aggies last loss? New Mexico two weeks ago.
Baylor lost their third straight game (to TCU in triple overtime) and fell to a 4-seed; two of their last three losses were in overtime, and the other was by 2 points. With a tiny change in luck Baylor might be fighting for a 1-seed right now. TCU was on the other side of the luck equation and jumped two seeds. Kansas held their 5-seed despite their third loss in six games, even gaining 5% in tournament odds; once again, it looks like the wins over UConn and Tennessee continue to grow in prominence and keep them afloat.
Illinois lost to Northwestern in overtime and fell a seed, while Duke fell a seed...just because? Probably their last home win (Clemson by 1) was a bit tepid, but they still gained +1.3% in odds, so they're moving up in real terms.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/28 01/21 21. Kentucky SEC 15-4 22-9 22-9 86.8 -1.7 6 5 22. Clemson ACC 13-6 22-9 23-8 84.7 +8.0 6 7 23. Dayton A10 16-3 25-5 27-3 84.5 -1.4 6 6 24. Texas Tech B12 16-3 23-8 24-7 83.4 +9.2 6 8 25. Colorado St. MWC 15-5 23-8 24-7 81.0 -6.1 7 5 26. San Diego St. MWC 16-4 23-8 24-7 80.9 +4.1 7 7 27. Indiana St. MVC 18-3 27-4 28-3 76.0 +5.0 7 8 28. Florida Atlantic Amer 17-4 25-6 27-4 74.1 0.0 7 8 29. Michigan St. B10 12-8 20-11 22-9 72.6 -2.4 8 7 30. Utah P12 14-7 21-10 22-9 72.3 -10.8 8 6 31. Oklahoma B12 15-5 20-11 21-10 71.5 -12.8 8 6 32. Colorado P12 15-6 22-9 23-8 70.3 +10.4 8 9 33. Mississippi St. SEC 14-6 20-11 22-9 70.0 +11.6 9 10 34. Saint Mary's WCC 16-6 23-8 24-7 68.0 +2.2 9 9 35. Cincinnati B12 14-6 20-11 19-12 67.2 +1.5 9 9 36. St. John's BE 13-7 20-11 18-13 64.9 +6.7 9 10
In the Big Twelve, Texas Tech jumps from an 8 to a 6 while Oklahoma moves the other direction, due to the Aggies' 85-84 win in Norman. Oklahoma also lost big at home to Texas earlier in the week, and two home losses is never a good thing.
Colorado State drops from a 5 to a 7 following losses to Nevada and Wyoming, both on the road and the latter in overtime. They end up one spot ahead of their next opponent, San Diego State. Utah falls from a 6-seed to an 8-seed after losing to both Washington teams on the road; they take on 8-seed Colorado next. The Buffaloes split games with the Washington teams last week, beating the Huskies before falling to the Cougars, but they made a big upward move (+10.4%) despite this. Apparently getting one solid (98-81) road win of two was a good trade-off? But it's true, in power conference play, going 1-1 on the road is usually a good showing. Mississippi State also made a double-digit percentage gain despite going 1-1 last week, but this one is easier to explain as they lost to Florida on the road, then upset 3-seed Auburn 64-58 at home.
Interestingly Dayton held their ground as a 6-seed despite their loss to Richmond. It was close (69-64), on the road, and to a good team, the type of loss that every team is going to have now and then according to the odds. Their Dance Chance took a small hit and they soldier on, like Kentucky who dropped a seed after losing at South Carolina, though that one wasn't too close (79-62).
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/28 01/21 37. Nebraska B10 15-6 20-11 20-11 59.2 +4.0 10 11 38. Washington St. P12 15-6 21-10 22-9 58.5 +17.8 10 39. Gonzaga WCC 15-5 22-8 23-7 56.2 -2.4 10 10 40. Northwestern B10 15-5 20-11 21-10 56.1 +21.3 10 41. Wake Forest ACC 13-6 20-11 21-10 55.6 -3.1 11 10 42. Nevada MWC 16-5 23-9 22-10 54.8 0.0 11 11 43. South Carolina SEC 17-3 22-9 21-10 54.5 +17.7 11 44. Boise St. MWC 14-6 20-11 20-11 53.9 -5.7 11p 9 45. Princeton Ivy 15-2 23-4 25-2 52.8 -13.3 12 8 46. Drake MVC 17-4 24-7 25-6 51.6 -1.3 11p 12p 47. Texas B12 14-6 19-12 18-13 50.4 +18.5 12p 48. Florida SEC 14-6 20-11 19-12 50.3 +7.4 12p
Top of the bubble: FIVE new teams bum rush the seedings this week, and here are their stories:
- Washington State went 2-0 this week, beating two seeded teams, Utah and Colorado, both currently 8-seeds. They also beat 1-seed Arizona a few weeks ago.
- Northwestern also joins as a 10-seed after beating 5-seed Illinois (in overtime) and Ohio State (83-58). The Wildcats have wins over 1-seed Purdue and 16-3 Dayton to go with their loss to 11-15 Chicago State
- South Carolina finally gets some props for going 17-3 after their win over 6-seed Kentucky. Their remaining schedule is killer in the SEC but for the first time it looks like they'll make it, or at least be within reach of a bid at the start of the conference tournament.
- Texas had a great start to the week with a 75-60 thrashing of Oklahoma on the road, which was good enough to boost their chances 18.4% despite Saturday's road loss at BYU. They beat an 8-seed on the road and lost to a 3-seed on the road, that's not bad for a team just fighting to get in the Dance. They're playing 1-seed Houston tonight in another game that could really boost them but won't hurt much if they lose.
- Florida slipped into the seedings after a good week where they beat 9-seed Mississippi State and edged Georgia in overtime, both at home. The Gators are the last team in so they're no time for complacency, and they have a similar remaining SEC schedule to South Carolina.
Two big falls: Boise State got dumped from a 9-seed down to the play-in line. They lost to 4-seed Utah State in overtime, which doesn't sound that bad, but it was at home and they also squeaked past 9-11 Fresno State by 4 points. Also in the Mountain West, Nevada had perhaps the most up and down week, beating 7-seed Colorado State 77-64 but then losing at New Mexico by a dismal 89-55. The upshot? As Colorado State fell 2 seeds and New Mexico went up 2 seeds, Nevada didn't budge at all: 11 seed, 54.8%, same as last week.
Princeton really took a hit for their 2nd loss, dropping from an 8-seed to a 12-seed, only staying off the play-in line because they're a heavy favorite to win the Ivy League tournament. It's not that we expected Princeton to win out (game by game, yes) but they shouldn't have lost 83-68 to anyone on their schedule, not even Cornell who is arguably the #2 team in the conference. Princeton's Strength fell from #46 to #61 and made getting an at-large bid look very precarious if they lose in their tournament.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/28 01/21 49. Providence BE 14-6 19-12 18-13 47.8 +7.3 50. Virginia Tech ACC 13-7 19-12 19-12 46.8 +7.9 51. Mississippi SEC 17-3 21-10 21-10 45.7 +17.6 52. Villanova BE 11-9 17-14 17-14 45.1 -12.4 11 53. Butler BE 14-7 19-12 18-13 45.1 +15.9 54. Miami FL ACC 14-6 19-12 19-12 44.9 +7.3 55. SMU Amer 13-7 22-9 23-8 42.4 -13.1 11 56. Iowa B10 12-8 18-13 19-12 41.9 -5.1 57. Memphis Amer 15-5 22-9 22-9 39.4 -10.3 12p 58. Grand Canyon WAC 19-2 28-4 30-2 39.3 +6.7 12 13 59. Texas A&M SEC 12-8 18-13 19-12 38.6 -14.7 12p 60. Oregon P12 14-6 20-11 22-9 38.5 +6.0 61. Virginia ACC 15-5 20-11 19-12 36.8 0.0 62. McNeese St. Slnd 18-2 28-3 29-2 36.7 +5.5 12 13 63. Seton Hall BE 13-8 18-13 18-13 36.5 -15.2 12p
Bottom of the bubble: first let's cover the five teams that dropped out and why:
- After two more losses Villanova is now 11-9, and that's a bad start even if you're expected to do well going forward. The latest losses were to St. John's by 20 and Butler in overtime. Note Butler's big percentage advance and presence on the bubble, along with Providence who won twice last week, including a win over....
- ...Seton Hall, who also fell to Marquette to put their record at 13-8, which is pretty borderline. There's not going to be room for many of these Big East teams in the tournament at this rate.
- SMU lost twice and is now 13-7, and in the American Athletic that probably doesn't cut it if they lose too many more.
- Memphis, also in the American, was looking great at 15-2 but then Ken Pomeroy wrote a substack about how the Tigers aren't really any good, and they've promptly lost three games in a row since, the latest to UAB
- Texas A&M is the opposite of Memphis, they rate really well in power ratings but don't win a lot (they lost to Memphis, btw) and now their power ratings are suffering as they lose more often. They fell to Mississippi at home on Saturday
Speaking of Mississippi, the Rebels are finally within striking distance of the seedings at 17-3. South Carolina just made it, why not Ole Miss? Up a whopping 17.6% after beating the Aggies on the road, but still only #74 in Strength (#64 in Pomeroy), they have a tough road ahead but 17 wins in their pocket.
This section also has Grand Canyon and McNeese State, 19-2 and 18-2 respectively and both up to projected 12-seeds if they win their tournament. If they play as expected, but they mess up in their conference tournaments? They're out of luck according to the Dance Chance. But with each win—or rather, each non-loss—their odds get a bit better. A 5-loss WAC or Southland team doesn't get a bid, but maybe a 3- or 4-loss team does?
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/28 01/21 64. James Madison SB 18-3 26-4 27-3 34.1 -2.9 13 12 69. Maryland B10 13-8 18-13 18-13 25.8 +15.6 70. Samford SC 18-3 26-5 28-3 25.7 -7.9 13 12 73. Ohio St. B10 13-7 18-13 18-13 24.2 -25.3 80. Xavier BE 10-10 16-15 16-15 17.7 -19.1 84. N.C. State ACC 13-7 17-14 16-15 10.5 -11.2 95. UNLV MWC 10-9 17-14 17-14 4.7 -16.6
James Madison and Samford are the teams that were 12-seeds last week, but both teams suffered their 3rd loss of the season. The Dukes fell to Appalachian State (the 2nd loss to the Mountaineers this season) while the Bulldogs lost to Furman. There is little leeway for Sun Belt and Southern Conference teams due to their schedule. Wins don't help much and losses hurt a lot. Neither team intends to need an at-large bid, but it would be nicer to be ranked as a 10-seed certainly, than a 13.
Other big movers this week include Maryland and Ohio State in the Big Ten, going opposite directions. The Terps beat Iowa on the road then crushed 10-seed Nebraska 73-51 back at home. The Buckeyes dropped over 25% (!) this week with losses to Nebraska and Northwestern, by 14 and 25 points respectively. The losses dropped them from the First Team Out to...just plain "out" at least for now. As a Big Ten team they have plenty of opportunity to reverse their fortune, but having lost 5 of their last 6 that's getting more and more doubtful.
Xavier also took a big tumble, down nearly 20% after losses to Creighton and UConn. Losing to a 3-seed and a 1-seed on the road doesn't seem that bad, and it's not, but when it puts you at 10-10 you have to start doing the math and it doesn't look good. Last week those games were probable losses but possible huge upsets that would propel the Musketeers into the seeding, now they're booked as 100% certain losses and Xavier is expected to barely finish above .500.
UNLV has the same problem a 10-9 in the Mountain West, but they only lost once. Problem is, that was to Air Force, at home, by 32 points. Ouch. That debacle knocked the Rebels from just over 20% odds—down but not out—to around 4% odds (pretty much out).
NC State is looking relatively good comparatively at 13-7, but they were looking better at 13-5 before losses to Virginia and Syracuse cut their tournament odds in half, from over 20% to just 10.5% now.
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