Two months until Selection Sunday 2004, and all our #1 seeds stayed the same from last week.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/21 01/14 1. Purdue B10 17-2 27-4 29-2 100.0 +0.1 1 1 2. Arizona P12 14-4 26-5 27-4 >99.9 0.0 1 1 3. Houston B12 16-2 27-4 29-2 >99.9 0.0 1 1 4. North Carolina ACC 15-3 25-6 27-4 99.5 +1.2 1 1
Purdue won twice, including a solid 84-70 win at Iowa that convinced our algorithm that Purdue is a 100% lock for the tournament. For the Monte Carlo simulation it just means that in 1,000 runs there wasn't a result that put them anywhere near being left out (at this point that's about the top 14 spots). Arizona probably would have made it too but they struggled with UCLA, needing to overcome a 19-point deficit at home to scratch out a win. Houston is very close too but the powerful Big Twelve makes certainty impractical. North Carolina rounds out the top seeds, also winning twice last week.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/21 01/14 5. Connecticut BE 17-2 26-5 27-4 99.1 +5.7 2 3 6. Tennessee SEC 14-4 24-7 26-5 99.1 +5.7 2 3 7. Iowa St. B12 14-4 23-8 26-5 98.6 +1.1 2 2 8. BYU B12 14-4 24-7 25-6 98.6 +2.6 2 2 9. Auburn SEC 16-2 25-6 27-4 96.9 +2.3 3 3 10. Alabama SEC 12-6 22-9 24-7 96.6 -1.2 3 2 11. Creighton BE 14-5 23-8 26-5 93.7 -0.2 3 3 12. Baylor B12 14-4 22-9 24-7 93.1 -1.8 3 2
Finally we have some change. Connecticut and Tennessee both make strong moves to the 2-line and take over as favorites in their respective conferences (Big East and SEC). The Huskies beat Creighton 62-48 to get there, while the Vols crushed former 2-seed Alabama 91-71. Both winners played at home and the road rematch is looming. The Bluejays held onto their 3-seed courtesy of a 3-overtime win at Seton Hall.
The other former 2-seed was Baylor, who lost games at Kansas State (overtime) and Texas (2 points) last week; they have wins over 3-seed Auburn and 2-seed BYU to fall back on. The Cougars had a mixed week, beating Iowa State 87-72 before falling to Texas Tech on Saturday. The Cyclones rebounded from their loss to beat TCU on the road, holding on for a 1-point win.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/21 01/14 13. Illinois B10 14-4 23-8 24-7 92.4 +7.9 4 5 14. Marquette BE 13-5 22-9 24-7 91.8 +10.3 4 5 15. Wisconsin B10 14-4 22-9 24-7 89.5 -1.2 4 4 16. Duke ACC 13-4 23-8 26-5 89.1 -3.2 4 4 17. New Mexico MWC 16-3 25-6 26-5 88.5 +11.7 5 6 18. Kentucky SEC 14-3 23-8 24-7 88.5 +6.8 5 5 19. Colorado St. MWC 15-3 24-7 26-5 87.1 -2.1 5 4 20. Kansas B12 15-3 21-10 20-11 86.2 +10.2 5 7 21. Dayton A10 15-2 26-4 28-2 85.9 +4.3 6 5 22. Utah St. MWC 17-2 27-6 28-5 84.3 -0.6 6 4 23. Oklahoma B12 15-3 22-9 24-7 84.3 +11.3 6 7 24. Utah P12 14-5 22-9 24-7 83.1 +5.0 6 6
Colorado State relinquished the top spot in the Mountain West despite two wins; they beat Air Force in overtime and UNLV by 3 points, both at home. Meanwhile New Mexico beat Utah State 99-86, giving the Lobos the MWC lead and an 11.7% jump in odds and handing the Aggies only their 2nd loss and a 2-line drop to a 6-seed.
Illinois and Marquette both won twice, moving up a seed while Wisconsin and Duke held on as 4-seeds despite their losses last week to Penn State and Pitt. Kansas did even better: advancing 10.2% and up two seeds to a 5-seed despite their loss at West Virginia. The reasons are 1) they also beat Oklahoma State 90-66 last week, and 2) they have wins over 2-seeds Tennessee and UConn, and both those wins aged well last week. Interestingly Kentucky and Kansas are #6 and #7 in the AP poll but only 5-seeds in our projection, with both expected to lose 5 or more games before the end of the regular season.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/21 01/14 25. San Diego St. MWC 15-4 23-8 24-7 76.8 +6.4 7 8 26. Clemson ACC 13-5 21-10 23-8 76.7 -4.6 7 6 27. TCU B12 13-5 20-11 21-10 75.4 +1.4 7 7 28. Michigan St. B10 12-7 20-11 22-9 75.0 +0.7 7 7 29. Texas Tech B12 15-3 22-9 23-8 74.2 +14.2 8 10 30. Florida Atlantic Amer 15-4 24-7 27-4 74.1 -3.0 8 6 31. Indiana St. MVC 16-3 26-5 28-3 71.0 +2.9 8 8 32. Princeton Ivy 15-1 24-3 26-1 66.1 -6.0 8 8 33. Saint Mary's WCC 14-6 23-8 24-7 65.8 +6.0 9 10 34. Cincinnati B12 13-5 20-11 19-12 65.7 -0.1 9 9 35. Colorado P12 14-5 21-10 24-7 59.9 +12.8 9 12p 36. Boise St. MWC 13-5 21-10 21-10 59.6 -5.6 9 9
San Diego State lost at Boise State, 67-66, on Saturday but here the Aztecs go up a seed and the Broncos hold at a 9-seed and lose some steam. Boise's previous game was a home loss to UNLV while SDSU topped Nevada earlier in the week, which overshadowed the head-to-head result. Clemson and Florida Atlantic both fall from 6-seeds, the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech at home in double overtime, their 4th loss in 5 games. The Owls won twice but their overtime win over lowly UTSA was enough to dock their Strength and weaken their projection down to an 8-seed. There they join other mid-Majors Indiana State (Missouri Valley) and Princeton (Ivy), while St. Mary's of the WCC is the top 9-seed.
The two big movers in this section were Texas Tech and Colorado. The Red Raiders were crushed at Houston, 77-54, but that didn't matter after they upset BYU 85-78, launching them from a 10-seed to an 8-seed, up 14.2%. The Buffaloes beat both Oregon and Oregon State, by 16 points and 33 points, enough to take them off the bubble from a 12-seed play-in to a 9-seed.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/21 01/14 37. Wake Forest ACC 13-5 20-11 21-10 58.7 -1.4 10 10 38. Gonzaga WCC 13-5 22-8 23-7 58.6 +16.0 10 39. Mississippi St. SEC 13-5 20-11 20-11 58.4 -5.8 10 9 40. St. John's BE 12-7 19-12 18-13 58.2 -12.3 10 8 41. Villanova BE 11-7 18-13 16-15 57.5 -7.7 11 9 42. SMU Amer 13-5 23-8 25-6 55.5 +7.2 11 12p 43. Nebraska B10 14-5 20-11 20-11 55.2 -1.3 11 11 44. Nevada MWC 15-4 22-10 21-11 54.8 -7.9 11 10 45. Texas A&M SEC 11-7 19-12 21-10 53.3 -1.4 12p 11 46. Drake MVC 16-3 25-6 26-5 52.9 +15.1 12p 47. Seton Hall BE 13-6 19-12 20-11 51.7 +13.8 12p 48. Memphis Amer 15-4 23-8 23-8 49.7 -9.9 12p 11
The Bubble: Three teams make big jumps to join the seeding, the biggest being Gonzaga who was looking very borderline just last week. The Zags didn't beat anyone that important, but the enormity of their wins over Pepperdine (86-61) and San Diego (105-63!) convinced our power rating that their outlook was favorable; they were up 16.0% as a 10-seed. Drake and Seton Hall joined as the last two teams in. The Bulldogs were up 15.1%; like Gonzaga it was due to two convinving wins, Illinois State (77-56, on the road), and Evansville 97-48. Seton Hall was only 1-1 last week, but their loss to Creighton in triple overtime barely hurt them, while their 80-65 win over St. John's propped them up 13.8% while helping knock the Red Storm (who also lost to Marquette) down from an 8-seed to a 10-seed. Another Big East team, Villanova, also lost twice (to Marquette and UConn) and fell from a 9- to an 11-seed.
Memphis lost to South Florida and Tulane but held on as the projected Last Team In. With SMU up to an 11-seed it makes the Tigers the #3 American Athletic team. Is there room for 3 AAC teams in the tournament? Memphis has a head-to-head win over the Mustangs, as does 12-seed play-in team Texas A&M. Speaking of conferences, Nevada is the #6 Mountain West team, and the MWC will probably get 5 bids tops. More concerning for the Wolf Pack is their 3-game losing streak after falling the San Diego State and Wyoming.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/21 01/14 49. Ohio St. B10 13-5 19-12 20-11 49.5 -4.6 11 50. Iowa B10 11-7 19-12 21-10 47.0 +0.8 12p 51. Florida SEC 12-6 19-12 20-11 42.9 +0.2 52. Washington St. P12 13-6 20-11 20-11 40.7 -0.8 53. Providence BE 12-6 18-13 17-14 40.5 +10.1 54. Syracuse ACC 13-5 20-11 20-11 39.6 +14.9 55. Virginia Tech ACC 11-7 18-13 19-12 38.9 +0.4 56. Miami FL ACC 12-6 19-12 20-11 37.6 -14.0 12p 57. James Madison SB 17-2 26-4 27-3 37.0 -2.8 12 12 59. Virginia ACC 13-5 20-11 19-12 36.8 +13.7 60. South Carolina SEC 15-3 20-11 19-12 36.8 -4.7 62. Samford SC 17-2 26-5 29-2 33.6 +1.7 12 13 63. Grand Canyon WAC 17-2 27-5 30-2 32.6 -7.0 13 12 64. Oregon P12 13-5 20-11 21-10 32.5 -3.3 65. Texas B12 13-5 17-14 16-15 31.9 +1.2 66. McNeese St. Slnd 16-2 28-3 29-2 31.2 +3.9 13 13 70. Mississippi SEC 15-3 20-11 19-12 28.1 -8.9
The Lower Bubble: Two Big Ten teams were pushed out of the seedings; Ohio State was upset by Michigan, while Iowa fell to Purdue at home. Neither would have fallen out if not for the three soaring teams that displaced them, but that's what makes the bubble so pernicious: it doesn't always matter what you do, other teams can pass you with big wins. So any slight stumble could mean you're out of the tournament.
Speaking of stumbles, Miami's up and down year continues and this week it's a down with losses to Florida State (at home) and Syracuse. The 'Canes have lost 4 of 5 after an 11-2 start, dropping them into a virtual dead heat with the Orange, who edged Miami 72-69 Saturday and increased their odds by 14.9%. Two other ACC teams are right in this region two: Virginia and Virginia Tech. The Cavs beat the Hokies 65-57 last week. These four teams are gunning for probably the last spots open to the ACC, which will get 5 or 6 bids this year. Currently there are four teams in the seedings, so 2 or 3 of these teams will be out of luck most likely.
Several teams here have good records and even AP poll votes, but aren't expected to make it. South Carolina is 15-3 after losing to Georgia and beating Arkansas, but they're expected to lose 8 or 9 games from here in the SEC. Mississippi is in the same boat: 15-3 after road losses to LSU and Auburn; their remaining schedule is even worse. At #72 and #89 in Strength the odds are against both of them but both have wins over teams in the lower bubble: Ole Miss beat Florida and Last Team In Memphis. SC beat Virginia Tech, Grand Canyon, and 10-seed Mississippi State.
The projected auto-bids here still have work to do if they want bid security against a conference tournament upset. Grand Canyon's loss to Seattle was only their 2nd (also South Carolina, as just mentioned) after a 14-game win streak. To get an at-large from the WAC they'll have to finish much closer to their "chalk" 30-2 than their expected 27-5. Samford is also 17-2 after dropping their first two games to Purdue and VCU, both on the road. Again, 29-2 in the Southern Conference might put them in position for a bid, but 26-5 would leave them short. James Madison rebounded from their first 2 losses of the season but still lost ground percentage-wise. And McNeese State has won 11 straight but their odds have declined the last several weeks as their top victim, Michigan, has lost 4 of 5 since then. The Cowboys gained a bit back this time after two more wins.
[ Record | Dance Chance | Seed ] Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg 01/21 01/14 140. Toledo MAC 11-7 19-11 21-9 <0.1 -1.4 142. Belmont MVC 11-8 17-14 17-14 <0.1 -1.5 144. Oklahoma St. B12 8-10 11-20 9-22 <0.1 -0.5 149. Winthrop BSth 13-8 19-12 19-12 <0.1 -1.2 150. Western Kentucky CUSA 13-6 19-11 20-10 <0.1 -0.6 153. Longwood BSth 14-7 20-11 22-9 0.0 -0.6 154. Lipscomb ASun 12-8 20-11 21-10 0.0 -1.0 15 15 165. Southern SWAC 9-9 18-12 21-9 0.0 -0.7 16p 16 170. Purdue Fort Wayne Horz 13-7 20-11 22-9 0.0 -1.5 171. Missouri St. MVC 10-9 15-16 15-16 0.0 -0.5
Here are ten teams who fell to zero or near-zero Dance Chance with a thud, each losing at least 1/2 of a percentage point of odds. The Missouri Valley saw Belmont and Missouri State tumble. Belmont fell from meager but still-tangible 1.5% odds to near-zero after two losses put them at 11-8, probably beyond what an MVC team can have to get an at-large. Missouri State's 8th and 9th losses put them at absolute zero. The Big South is very unlikely to get an at-large bid, and Winthrop and Longwood have 8 and 7 losses after last week's action, and now only projected conference winner High Point (16-4) has above-zero odds (1.1%).
Oklahoma State, being in the Big Twelve, had 8 losses but still had a 0.5% chance to rebound to bid territory, given their opportunity for big wins. But after two more losses, the 8-10 Cowboys have less than a 1 in 1000 chance of getting it done. Toledo from the MAC lost to Central Michigan, going from 6 losses to 7, which is (almost) a dealbreaker for a MAC team. Even a 7-loss MAC team would have an uphill, and they'd have an 8th loss after the conference tournament. Same with Western Kentucky in the CUSA after two losses put them at 13-6, do they really have any chance at all? They're the last team that gets within striking distance even in 1 of 1000 trials. Lipscomb and Southern are expected to win their conferences, and they have to at this point. The Bisons have 8 losses now, and the Jaguars are just 9-9 after falling twice last week.
The worst fall of the week—and of the last several weeks—is the collapse of Purdue Fort Wayne. The Mastodons were 13-2 just three weeks ago with a 20.6% Dance Chance! They projected to 26-5, and looked good enough to run through the Horizon League untouched which would make them 29-2 and certainly in the at-large discussion. But five losses in a row diminished those odds week by week, until last week's disappointments vs. IUPUI and Cleveland State dumped them to 0.0% odds, and more significantly left them 4th in the league. As far as I know there was no catalyst for this drop in quality such as an injury to a key player. Their only hope now is to recapture their earlier-season form in the conference tournament. And really, that was probably their only hope all along, but odds of that looked a lot better a few weeks ago!
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