Just half a week left before the Major conference tournaments start and the Dance Chance "projection" turns into a "snapshot" of current standings. Right now there's still one game being projected for most teams, and the only forecast is of how things will stand before the tournaments start.
1. Kansas 25-5 25-6 B12 100.0 0.0 1 1
2. Alabama 26-4 27-4 SEC 100.0 0.0 1 1
3. Purdue 25-5 26-5 B10 100.0 0.0 1 2
4. Texas 22-8 23-8 B12 100.0 0.0 1 1
5. Baylor 22-8 23-8 B12 100.0 +0.1 2 2
6. Houston 28-2 29-2 Amer 100.0 0.0 2 1
7. Kansas St. 23-7 23-8 B12 100.0 +0.1 2 2
8. UCLA 26-4 27-4 P12 100.0 0.0 2 2
The first surprise is seeing Purdue back at a 1-seed after falling to the middle-of-the-pack 2-line last time out. The Boilermakers edged Wisconsin 63-61 on the road which was roughly what was expected, but that should have kept them at a 2. Meanwhile Texas was upset by TCU 75-73, a minor upset but you'd think it would drop the Longhorns to a 2-seed. UCLA exceeded expectations in their wins but didn't pass Texas, in fact they dropped as they held onto their 2-seed, while Houston won comfortably but slipped to the 2-line.
What's happening here is Kansas and Alabama are head and shoulders above the others, who are basically neck-and-neck for the next six spots so any small fluctuation in the algorithm can change the order. Texas on their home court is still expected to beat Kansas, and that "win" is what keeps the Longhorns on the 1-line. After Sunday there will be no more projections, it's just what you've done, not what you're expected to do.
9. Gonzaga 26-5 26-5 WCC 99.9 0.0 3 3
10. Tennessee 22-8 23-8 SEC 99.9 0.0 3 3
11. Connecticut 23-7 24-7 BE 99.9 0.0 3 3
12. TCU 20-10 21-10 B12 99.9 0.0 3 4
13. Arizona 25-5 25-6 P12 99.9 0.0 4 4
14. Marquette 24-6 25-6 BE 99.9 0.0 4 4
15. Indiana 20-10 21-10 B10 99.9 0.0 4 3
16. Iowa St. 17-12 17-13 B12 99.9 +0.0 4 4
TCU's upset of Texas gained them a tenuous 3-seed, replacing Indiana who got bombarded by Iowa, 90-68 at home. Otherwise not much happened here and there really aren't any 1-seed candidates among the current 3-4 seed group, regardless of conference tournament performance. Gonzaga, Tennessee, UConn, Arizona, and probably Marquette could make it to a 2-seed if they win their conference tourney.
17. Xavier 22-8 23-8 BE 99.9 +1.5 5 5 18. Virginia 22-6 23-6 ACC 99.6 +0.0 5 5 19. Saint Mary's 25-6 25-6 WCC 99.2 +0.0 5 5 20. Florida Atlantic 27-3 28-3 CUSA 98.9 +1.5 5 6 21. San Diego St. 23-6 24-6 MWC 98.5 +1.5 6 6 22. West Virginia 17-13 18-13 B12 98.1 +14.6 6 8 23. Illinois 20-10 20-11 B10 97.8 +0.0 6 6 24. Rutgers 18-12 19-12 B10 96.7 -1.4 6 6 25. Miami FL 23-6 24-6 ACC 95.7 -0.3 7 7 26. Creighton 19-11 20-11 BE 91.8 +0.6 7 7 27. Maryland 20-10 20-11 B10 89.8 -9.0 7 5 28. Iowa 19-11 20-11 B10 87.9 +15.8 7 10
West Virginia upset Iowa State in Ames and it helped the Mountaineers a lot—it insured a winning record for the season, for one thing, regardless of tournament performance in the Big Twelve. Iowa State stubbornly remained a 4-seed, interestingly.
Maryland lost to Ohio State (suddenly the Buckeyes have started to upset teams, rather than be upset themselves) and that dropped them a couple seeds, while Iowa's big comeback against Michigan State carried over into the Indiana upset win; they're up from the top 10-seed to the lowest 7-seed.
29. Duke 22-8 22-9 ACC 86.0 +4.4 8 8
30. Michigan St. 18-11 19-11 B10 84.1 +4.3 8 9
31. Arkansas 19-11 20-11 SEC 82.1 -7.1 8 7
32. Northwestern 20-10 20-11 B10 80.2 -12.8 8 7
33. Kentucky 20-10 20-11 SEC 78.3 -9.0 9 8
34. Boise St. 23-7 23-8 MWC 76.4 +0.5 9 9
35. Utah St. 23-7 24-7 MWC 74.4 +6.1 9 10
36. Missouri 22-8 23-8 SEC 72.5 -1.5 9 9
37. Texas A&M 22-8 22-9 SEC 70.6 +0.4 10 10
38. Providence 21-9 22-9 BE 68.7 -16.7 10 8
39. Nevada 22-8 23-8 MWC 66.7 -11.1 10 9
40. Penn St. 18-12 19-12 B10 64.8 +19.4 10
Wildcat Woes: Just when Northwestern and Kentucky lodged themselves in the seeding they start faltering. Northwestern lost their third straight game—but the only upset of the three—losing in overtime at home to Penn State, who jumped into the seedings as a 10-seed because of it. Kentucky's 4-game win streak came to an end at home vs. Vanderbilt, 68-66. The Commodores, unlike the Nittany Lions, remain an extreme long shot for a bid at 1.2%.
Providence and Nevada also fell to upsets; the Friars lost at home to Xavier while the Wolf Pack lost at Wyoming. Nevada is now the 4th Mountain West team in the Dance Chance, dipping below both Boise State and Utah State. The latter isn't getting much love from bracketologists but their résumé is almost as good as Boise State's, and the Broncos are in everyone's seedings. The lack of Quad 1 wins seems to be a problem, even thought they have 8 Quad 2 wins.
41. Texas Tech 16-14 17-14 B12 62.9 -1.6 11 11
42. USC 21-9 22-9 P12 61.0 -5.4 11 10
43. N.C. State 22-9 22-9 ACC 59.1 -1.2 11p 11p
44. Mississippi St. 20-10 21-10 SEC 56.7 -5.9 11p 11
45. Auburn 19-11 19-12 SEC 54.4 -3.6 11p 11p
46. Memphis 23-7 23-8 Amer 51.7 +1.8 11p
47. North Carolina 19-11 20-11 ACC 49.8 -2.0 11p
48. Oral Roberts 27-4 27-4 Sum 49.0 -0.6 12 12
49. New Mexico 21-9 22-9 MWC 48.6 +0.2
50. Michigan 17-13 17-14 B10 47.5 -1.4
51. Wisconsin 16-13 17-13 B10 45.5 +2.0
52. Pittsburgh 21-9 21-10 ACC 43.6 -11.7 11p
53. Oregon 17-13 18-13 P12 41.7 +0.1
54. Oklahoma St. 16-14 16-15 B12 39.8 -7.6
Texas Tech (16-14) is the top 11-seed, still on the bubble but in OK shape before the Big Twelve tournament. Oklahoma State (also 16-14) is in trouble. But that's assuming Texas Tech wins their game Saturday; otherwise their positions likely flip. Only one can be 17-14 and in decent shape, the other will be 16-15 and need more than a couple wins in the conference tourney. Both will need at least one win there to make it, I would assume.
Pittsburgh is tied for the lead in the ACC and they're no guarantee they're in the field after their upset loss to Notre Dame, and according to the Dance Chance they'll need some ACC tournament wins which is a tough call because they're probably getting a double bye and will face a good team in their first game. That team might be North Carolina, who slips into the First Team Out position as Memphis becomes the Last Team In. North Carolina has to follow through and beat Duke even to be in this position, while Pitt can help themselves immensely by beating Miami on the road.
Michigan and Wisconsin still have hope as the Big Ten tournament approaches but both of them almost made a splash yesterday. The Badgers lost to Purdue by 2 points while Michigan fell at Illinois in double overtime. Those wins would have put them above water at 11-seeds but a loss is a loss. The Wolverines can still help themselves a lot by upsetting Indiana on Sunday, while the Badgers can only hurt themselves at Minnesota.
55. Charleston 28-3 28-3 CAA 37.8 -1.9 12 12 56. Arizona St. 20-10 20-11 P12 35.9 -1.9 57. Sam Houston St. 23-6 24-6 WAC 34.0 -1.9 12 12 58. Clemson 21-9 22-9 ACC 32.1 -2.0 59. UAB 22-8 23-8 CUSA 30.1 -2.0 60. North Texas 24-6 25-6 CUSA 28.2 +1.8 61. Utah 17-13 17-14 P12 26.3 +1.8 62. Kent St. 24-6 25-6 MAC 24.4 -5.9 12 12 63. Virginia Tech 17-13 18-13 ACC 22.4 +3.6 64. Drake 24-7 24-7 MVC 20.5 -2.1 13 13 65. Bradley 23-8 23-8 MVC 18.6 -2.1 66. Washington St. 16-15 16-15 P12 16.7 +1.7 67. Colorado 15-15 16-15 P12 14.7 -2.2 91. Seton Hall 16-14 16-15 BE 0.8 -27.5
The Pac-12 has just three teams in our seedings (UCLA, Arizona, USC), and five teams still within striking distance if things work out. Oregon and Arizona State are in the best shape, and Utah isn't far behind. Washington State and Colorado are both better than their 15-loss records but really need miracle runs in the Pac-12 tournament to bump their odds up. As no team has made it with 16 wins, they probably have much lower than 15% or 17% chance to get an at-large bid.
Clemson and Virginia Tech from the ACC have fair shots at a bid; Clemson's conference and overall record makes them a more attractive prospect for sure, but it will all come down to the ACC tournament. The Tigers and Hokies both have what should be an easy game before then (home vs. Notre Dame and Florida State respectively) but a loss could sink their chances (and just ask Pitt and Miami if those games are gimmes).
UAB and North Texas hope to get an at-large out of the C-USA if they don't win that tournament. For mid-Majors it's always a Catch-22—the only time you're in good enough shape to get an at-large is if you win your tournament, and that seems to be the case for both of these teams. 5-seed Florida Atlantic should get an at-large if they lose, but you can never be sure where a team is being ranked. Drake and Bradley from the Missouri Valley are in the same position as UAB and North Texas, but with even longer odds of getting an at-large bid.
I've included Seton Hall here to show how far they dropped after an upset loss to Villanova at home. The main problem is that it made their overall record unpaletable, assuming a loss to Providence on the road Saturday. Despite having a win over UConn that almost matches Colorado's neutral-court win over Tennessee and Washington State's road win over Arizona, the Pirates are far below those 15-loss teams.
68. Liberty 26-7 26-7 ASun 12.8 +3.5 13 13 69. VCU 23-7 24-7 A10 10.9 -2.2 13 13 75. Marshall 24-7 24-7 SB 1.2 -0.4 13 13 81. Yale 19-7 20-7 Ivy 1.1 -0.4 14 14 82. Iona 23-7 24-7 MAAC 1.0 -0.4 14 14 90. Furman 24-7 24-7 SC 0.8 -0.3 14 14 97. UC Irvine 21-10 22-10 BW 0.6 -0.2 14 14 106. Montana St. 22-9 22-9 BSky 0.4 0.0 15 114. Colgate 24-8 24-8 Pat 0.2 -0.1 15 15 116. Youngstown St. 24-8 24-8 Horz 0.2 -0.2 15 15 118. Eastern Washington 22-9 22-9 BSky 0.1 -0.4 15 129. Vermont 20-10 20-10 AE <0.1 0.0 15 15 139. UNC Asheville 24-7 24-7 BSth <0.1 0.0 16 16 151. Grambling St. 21-8 22-8 SWAC <0.1 0.0 16 16p 153. North Carolina Central 17-11 17-11 MEAC <0.1 0.0 16p 16 159. Northwestern St. 21-10 21-10 Slnd <0.1 0.0 16p 16p 200. Morehead St. 21-10 21-10 OVC <0.1 0.0 16p 201. SIU Edwardsville 19-14 19-14 OVC <0.1 0.0 16p 272. Fairleigh Dickinson 18-14 18-14 NEC 0.0 --- 16p 301. Wagner 15-13 15-13 NEC 0.0 --- 16p
A few changes in the one-bid universe as many of those tournaments have started. Montana State is our Big Sky favorite after beating Eastern Washington on the Eagles' home court. Morehead State moves one spot ahead of SIU Edwardsville in the Ohio Valley but even if they didn't it wouldn't matter as the Cougars were eliminated by Tennessee Martin during the OVC tournament. And Wagner bit the dust in the NorthEast Conference tournament, leaving Fairleigh Dickinson the favorite to get the AQ bid.
Brandon Miller is playing well, Alabama is not
Several days ago came the startling revelation that Brandon Miller brought the murder weapon to the crime scene in January's murder in Tuscaloosa, at the request of one of the accused killers. Since then Alabama's played three games and Miller has played in all three; Alabama's coach has said Miller was in the "wrong place at the wrong time" and wouldn't be held out, and indeed the police said there was "nothing they could charge him with."
Still, observers wondered how Miller would respond to the pressure of playing after the announcement. Would he be tentative, nervous, a bit shook, perhaps? The answer was clearly "no" at South Carolina as Miller scored a career-hight 41 points in the overtime win. He shot 6 of 13 from the 3-point line, 8 of 12 from 2-point range, and 7 of 8 from the charity stripe.
Before the next game Miller was "patted-down" by a teammate before the game, in a ritual the players had done before but one that prompted an apology from coach Nate Oats, saying it was in bad taste and wouldn't happen again. Apparently it was meant as a "TSA style" patdown and signified that Miller was "ready for takeoff."
Again Miller had a good game at home vs. Arkansas. Though not a career-best like last time, Miller had 24 points. He was only 1 for 6 in 3s but his 7 of 9 2s and all 7 free throws. Alabama escaped with an 86-83 win over the Razorbacks.
Coach Oats says that Miller has cooperated with the investigation in every way, but a few things might not add up in Miller's testimony. The police clearly imply that the accused killer texted Miller asking him to bring his gun to him. But Miller's attorney says Miller never saw it because it was under a pile of clothes, and didn't know it was in his car. The two facts don't jibe, and the logical conclusion is that Miller put the gun under the clothes when he brought it downtown to the accused killer, which is what one would do when transporting a gun: hide it. But no one seems eager to push the matter in any way, and one wonders if a normal person would be subjected to more scrutiny. Miller's lawyers have claimed the accused killer left the gun in Miller's car without Miller's knowledge, hidden under the clothes, which is a bit odd to say the least. Miller's car was also blocking the car of the victim when he parked it, though police say they don't know if that was intentional or not.
In any case, Miller obviously didn't participate in the violence itself, and that seems good enough for Alabama officials. In his third game since the controversy, Miller had 17 points in an overtime win vs. rival Auburn. He again hit only 1 of 6 3s and this time only 2 of 6 2s, but he hit 10 of 11 free throws, clearly not the hallmark of someone who has a burden on his mind over anything. Either Miller is an extremely cool customer, or he's confident he did nothing wrong. Perhaps both.
But while Miller has performed at least as well as he has all season, Alabama as a team has been shaky to say the least. Beating South Carolina in overtime is an extremely weak performance, and while beating Arkansas and Auburn is tough for any team, Alabama was lucky to get out of both of them with a win when normally they should win comfortably.
To put it in terms of the Strength power rating, Alabama is overall the #2 team in the country, but for the last three games they've played like the #82 team. Here's how it looks on their full-season-to-date chart:
The drop-off to game #28 (South Carolina) is immense, and it was their lowest-rated game they didn't lose. The Arkansas win was about equal to the Tennessee loss, and the Auburn win was a bit worse (they were down by 17 at one point). The last two games weren't awful and ultimately, they got the win all three times, but all three were well below their full-season average performance (the green bar in game "0"). In Ken Pomeroy's ratings the team has fallen from #14 to #19 on offense and from #3 to #6 on defense, a significant drop for just three games.
So it would seem that while Brandon Miller isn't concerned with the current events—or at least doesn't show it on the court—his teammates are not thriving under the scrutiny nearly as well.
The situation is fluid and facts are being introduced every day, and different sources have different takes, so it's hard to know what to make of Miller's actions and whether he has anything to answer for. The police say no, so that will probably be the final word. Maybe he should have done something differently, but most likely, he couldn't possibly have known at all what was about to happen.
Yet although it seems he has shaken off any pressure added by the events, his team is not performing to its usual level for whatever reason, and it's too much of a coincidence to say the revelations have nothing to do with it. When player Darius Miles was charged with the murders back in January and dismissed from the team, the other players didn't really miss a step in performance.
But something about the Miller revelation was different. Maybe they're worried about the pressure on him, and in doing so, took the pressure on themselves? Hard to say what is going on. It's also possible that a 3-game sample is too small to draw conclusions. But it's a pretty sharp drop-off at the exact same time. Bama player Jaden Bradley was also at the scene of the murder (in his own car), and he's made only 3 of 17 attempts since then. Two Bama players were ejected from the Auburn game for a verbal altercation. It's not uncommon to see two players—one from each team—ejected, but two players from the same team? When playing at home?
Will Alabama recover their national-title-level gameplay in time for the NCAA tournament? We'll see. So far they've kept winning and look like they'll be a 1-seed. But if this drop-off in performance continues, they'll be hard-pressed to make a deep tournament run later on in March.
Posted on March 01, 2023 at 10:13 PM in analysis, commentary | Permalink | Comments (0)
Reblog (0) | | Digg This | Save to del.icio.us | |