A few days ago I lamented that no one wanted the overall 1-seed, but in the last few days, three teams did their best to claim it in the lastest Dance Chance.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/12) 1. Kansas 22-5 25-6 B12 100.0 +0.0 1 1 2. Alabama 23-4 27-4 SEC 100.0 +0.0 1 1 3. Purdue 24-4 27-4 B10 100.0 0.0 1 1 4. Baylor 20-7 24-7 B12 99.9 0.0 1 2
At mid-week it seemed that no team was cut out to be the overall 1-seed. Purdue lost their 3rd game in 4 attemtps, but Alabama lost their big game with Tennessee and Texas was upset by Texas Tech. But the last few days showed a different side of the top teams: Purdue crushed ailing Ohio State 82-55, while the Crimson Tide bounced back with a hellacious 108-59 beatdown of Georgia. But Kansas jumped over both all of them, coming back from 17 down to beat Baylor by 16, 87-71.
All three of these teams were among the preview "Sweet Sixteen" announced by the NCAA, which had Alabama the overall #1, Purdue at #3, and Kansas at #4. The difference here is that the NCAA released a "snapshot" which doesn't project future games.
Baylor claimed the final 1-seed regardless, having defeated West Virginia 79-67 on Monday as Texas dropped to a 2-seed. It's pretty clear that the Big Twelve will have a 1-seed, and possibly two of them—at least before the conference tournaments start, which is as far out as our projection goes. The Bears play Kansas State and Texas this week so nothing gets easier in that conference; Kansas has TCU then West Virginia.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/12) 5. Houston 25-2 29-2 Amer 99.9 0.0 2 2 6. Texas 21-6 23-8 B12 99.9 0.0 2 1 7. UCLA 23-4 27-4 P12 99.9 0.0 2 2 8. Gonzaga 23-5 26-5 WCC 99.9 +0.4 2 3 9. Tennessee 20-7 24-7 SEC 99.9 0.0 3 3 10. Arizona 24-4 26-5 P12 99.9 +0.7 3 3 11. TCU 18-9 21-10 B12 99.9 +1.8 3 4 12. Kansas St. 20-7 21-10 B12 99.9 0.0 3 2
Texas was this close to being the top 1-seed seven days ago but had such a bad week they've dropped to a 2. First was the upset loss (74-67) at Texas Tech, then the Longhorns very nearly lost at home to Oklahoma, needing overtime in an 85-83 nail-biter. Houston and UCLA are still 2-seeds and will have to wait for the conference tournaments to move up, if they can. Houston is a 1-seed in the NCAA Preview Top 16 while UCLA is a 2-seed at #8, something that Bruin coach Mick Cronin called "comical." Not sure what his complaint is, really; it's true, UCLA is in the top 4 in the AP and NET ratings, but a 2-seed is hardly out of line (they're a 2-seed consensus on the Bracket Matrix, too).
Meanwhile Gonzaga was only a 4-seed per the NCAA, while here we see the Zags moving up to the last rung on the 2-line. Tennessee was unable to capitalize on their big win, falling to Kentucky in the next game and remaining steady. The 3-line is rounded out by two more Big Twelve teams, TCU (up a seed after crushing Oklahoma State 100-75) and Kansas State (down a seed due to losing to Oklahoma 79-65). TCU is absent from the NCAA's Top 16, but we have them winning three of four going forward. All four games, including tonight's game hosting Kansas—are nearly coin flips, however.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/12) 13. Connecticut 20-7 24-7 BE 99.9 +1.0 4 3 14. Iowa St. 17-9 19-11 B12 99.5 +1.8 4 4 15. Indiana 19-8 22-9 B10 99.2 +0.7 4 4 16. Virginia 21-4 24-5 ACC 98.8 +1.4 4 4 17. Marquette 21-6 24-7 BE 98.5 +1.8 5 5 18. Rutgers 17-10 21-10 B10 98.1 +1.0 5 5 19. Xavier 20-7 23-8 BE 97.7 +2.1 5 6 20. Miami FL 22-5 24-6 ACC 97.4 +3.2 5 7 21. Creighton 18-9 22-9 BE 97.0 +1.0 6 5 22. Saint Mary's 24-5 25-6 WCC 96.7 +1.8 6 6 23. Illinois 17-9 21-10 B10 96.3 +1.1 6 6 24. Florida Atlantic 24-3 28-3 CUSA 95.9 -0.4 6 5
Our 4-line is pretty out of synch with how the NCAA sees things right now. First UConn—even though they dip a seed from last week—doesn't make the NCAA's preview Top 16; they're in the "next 4" however, implying a 5-seed, but the Huskies are only the 3rd ranked Big East team there. Virginia is a 3-seed by the NCAA at #10, and the Cavaliers are a consensus 3-seed elsewhere, too. But we wonder how good they really are, and if they're vulnerable in the ACC tournament, at they're only #29 in Strength and #23 in Pomeroy. They'll have to worry about teams like Miami, who is up from a 7-seed after winning their 5th and 6th straight games.
Three more Big East teams fill the 5- and 6-line; Marquette and Xavier both get 5-seeds here but both teams are 4-seeds in the NCAA's preview. Creighton's double overtime loss to Providence drops the Bluejays to a 6-seed but the NCAA put them on par with UConn in the unofficial 5-seed line. St. Mary's is also an unofficial 5-seed per the NCAA.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/12) 25. Maryland 18-9 21-10 B10 95.6 +17.9 7 9 26. Northwestern 20-7 21-10 B10 93.5 +17.6 7 9 27. Duke 19-8 22-9 ACC 91.7 +6.7 7 8 28. Nevada 20-7 24-7 MWC 89.8 -2.3 7 7 29. San Diego St. 21-5 23-7 MWC 88.0 -0.6 8 7 30. Boise St. 21-6 24-7 MWC 86.1 +4.8 8 8 31. Providence 20-7 23-8 BE 84.3 +17.4 8 10 32. Iowa 17-10 20-11 B10 82.4 -4.3 8 8 33. West Virginia 15-12 17-14 B12 80.5 -9.8 9 7 34. Arkansas 18-9 20-11 SEC 78.7 +6.4 9 10 35. N.C. State 21-7 23-8 ACC 76.8 -6.3 9 8 36. Oklahoma St. 16-11 17-14 B12 75.0 -4.5 9 9
Two Big Ten teams make a rush to the top of the 7-line from 9-seeds. Maryland upset 1-seed Purdue but then fell at Nebraska; beating Purdue definitely helped more than losing to Nebraska hurt; the latter (a road loss) dropped them back roughly one seed. Northwestern continued their winning ways and beat Indiana and Iowa at home, 64-62 and 80-60 respectively. After about six weeks of peeking in and out of the seedings the Wildcats are likely in for good after a 5-game win streak.
The Mountain West is shaping up to a 3-team contest in the 8-seed line, with Nevada projected to be narrowly on top going into the tournament. The Wolf Pack's remaining foes are all in the bottom half of the conference so we don't see another loss, while San Diego State faces Boise and New Mexico on the road. Boise State travels to Utah State in their last game. But Nevada won't be the tournament favorite; per the Strength power rating, it's San Diego State, then Boise State, then Utah State all before the Wolf Pack.
Providence is up two seeds to an 8 after beating Creighton and Villanova last week. Going the other direction is West Virginia, down 2 to a 9-seed after losing badly to Baylor and falling to Texas Tech at home. With 12 losses, the Mountaineers are running out of breathing room and with so many Big Twelve teams in contention their record alone might be an issue. Same goes for Oklahoma State, another 9-seed with double-digit losses that probably finishes 17-14 going into the conference tournament. They are teams #7 and #8 in the Big Twelve.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/12) 37. Missouri 19-8 23-8 SEC 73.1 -21.4 10 6 38. Kentucky 18-9 20-11 SEC 71.3 +19.7 10 12p 39. Utah St. 21-7 24-7 MWC 69.4 +8.0 10 11 40. Auburn 18-9 19-12 SEC 67.6 +7.9 10 11p 41. Texas A&M 20-7 21-10 SEC 65.7 +16.4 11 42. Michigan St. 16-10 18-12 B10 63.9 -10.2 11 9 43. Mississippi St. 18-9 21-10 SEC 62.0 -1.2 11p 11 44. Oral Roberts 25-4 27-4 Sum 60.2 -4.9 11 11 45. Memphis 20-7 23-8 Amer 58.3 +3.6 11p 12p 46. North Carolina 16-11 20-11 ACC 55.0 -15.5 12p 10 47. New Mexico 20-7 23-8 MWC 51.8 -16.9 12p 10
Topside of the bubble: The SEC is in full force here starting with Missouri who drops like a rock from a 6-seed to a 10-seed after losing to Auburn and Texas A&M. The Auburn loss wasn't an upset but the magnitude—89-56—was bad for Mizzou, and the Texas A&M loss at home hurts even more. The Tigers are still in good shape going forward with Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss on the schedule. Kentucky is doing well too after a strong week where they beat Mississippi State and Tennessee and jumped two seeds.
Michigan State's terrible week off the court led to a cancelled game vs. Minnesota and a loss to Michigan. The Minnesota game is supposed to be rescheduled but there's not really a good time slot. If they do add it back it will help the Spartans, who drop to an 11-seed partly because they lost that almost-sure win (and also because the Indiana home game flipped to a loss).
Last two in: A lot has been written lately about North Carolina's status. The Dance Chance still has the Tar Heels in as a play-in 12-seed, as their last four games are all very winnable: Notre Dame and Florida State should be gimmes, and they host Virginia and Duke, neither of whom is unbeatable. Both outrank UNC in Strength so they'll be counting on home court advantage, and another loss might put them outside looking in as the conference tournament starts. New Mexico snapped a 4-game losing streak and held on as the Last Team In. But they're also Mountain West team #5 which, contrary to Committee claims, is certainly a consideration. To remain in the seedings—pre-conference tournament—they'll probably have to beat San Diego State at home on Saturday.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/12) 48. Pittsburgh 19-8 22-9 ACC 49.9 -7.9 11p 49. Texas Tech 15-12 16-15 B12 49.4 +46.0 50. USC 19-8 20-11 P12 49.0 +5.8 51. Oregon 15-13 18-13 P12 48.9 -0.9 52. Florida 14-13 18-13 SEC 47.1 -1.6 53. Charleston 26-3 28-3 CAA 45.2 +0.2 12 12 54. Kent St. 22-5 26-5 MAC 43.4 -3.5 12 12 55. North Texas 23-5 26-5 CUSA 41.5 +1.9 56. Colorado 15-13 17-14 P12 39.6 +14.5 57. Sam Houston St. 20-6 24-6 WAC 37.8 +1.8 12 13 58. Utah 17-11 18-13 P12 35.9 -5.5 59. Seton Hall 16-12 17-14 BE 34.1 -3.7 60. Virginia Tech 16-11 19-12 ACC 32.2 -1.9 61. Wisconsin 15-11 16-14 B10 30.4 -0.2 62. Penn St. 16-11 16-15 B10 28.5 +25.3
Underneath the bubble: Pittsburgh is the only team that drops out this week, replaced by Texas A&M. Blame Virginia Tech who beat Pitt 79-72 but didn't gain much themselves since they lost to Georgia Tech in their prior game. All in all the ACC is pretty unimpressive, to say the least—and of course, the exact same thing was said last year before the conference had three teams in the Elite Eight including runner-up North Carolina.
Texas Tech makes a monster move, which is what can happen when a team firmly projected to finish under .500 suddenly looks like a contender. The Red Raiders had less than a 4% chance last week and projected to 14-17 before beating Texas and West Virginia, their 5th win in 7 games after starting the Big Twelve season 0-8. Beating LSU in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge seems to have sparked something in them and now they're almost 50/50 to make the tournament, but they'll still have to finish better than 16-15 as the Dance Chance puts more weight on marginal overall records in the last few weeks. And once again, they're 9th in the Big Twelve pecking order so if it's close, they're probably out.
Pac-12 woes: As I noted last week, the Pac-12 might very well have two teams, UCLA and Arizona, in the top two seeds and nothing else. But if USC and Oregon stick this close, they've probably got an edge over, say, Texas Tech (Big Twelve #9) or even New Mexico (MWC #5). Oregon lost two close road games to the Washingtons last week and it didn't hurt them much, but it didn't help and the Ducks have 13 losses now and no more leeway. Colorado helped their cause a lot by beating Arizona State on the road, but they have 13 losses as well. Utah has 11 losses. Is it any wonder these teams aren't in the seedings? USC has the best current profile by far but the toughest road ahead, including Utah and Colorado on the road.
North Texas keeps plugging along at 23-5 but with no big games left they'll probably need to win the C-USA tournament to get in the Big Dance. They swept Florida Atlantic this year, 50-46 at home and 66-62 on the road, so a neutral court win isn't out of the question by any means.
Most brackets have Wisconsin as one of the last teams in, but the Badgers have a tough remaining schedule and for us rate alongside Penn State, who just upset Illinois to get back on the radar. The Nittany Lions also have a tough road ahead, but it keeps the door open if they can get a few more upsets.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/12) 69. Southern Miss 24-5 26-5 SB 15.5 -33.2 13 12 70. Bradley 21-8 23-8 MVC 13.7 -4.2 13 13 74. Liberty 22-7 24-7 ASun 6.3 -15.2 13 13 76. Dayton 18-9 22-9 A10 2.6 -0.8 13 13 82. Yale 18-7 20-7 Ivy 2.2 -0.9 14 14 85. Iona 20-7 24-7 MAAC 2.0 -0.8 14 14 87. UC Irvine 19-8 24-8 BW 1.9 -0.4 14 14 90. Furman 22-7 24-7 SC 1.7 -0.9 14 14 104. Eastern Washington 21-7 24-7 BSky 1.0 -0.3 15 15 106. Youngstown St. 22-7 24-7 Horz 1.0 -0.2 15 15 114. Colgate 21-8 23-8 Pat 0.8 -0.4 15 15 128. Vermont 17-10 20-10 AE 0.4 -0.2 15 15 143. Norfolk St. 19-7 22-8 MEAC 0.1 +0.1 16 144. UNC Asheville 22-7 23-8 BSth 0.1 +0.1 16 147. North Carolina Central 13-11 17-11 MEAC <0.1 -0.2 16p 153. Grambling St. 18-8 22-8 SWAC <0.1 -0.1 16p 16p 158. Northwestern St. 19-9 21-10 Slnd <0.1 -0.5 16p 16 164. Gardner Webb 15-13 17-13 BSth <0.1 -0.3 16 205. Tennessee Martin 18-11 20-11 OVC <0.1 0.0 16p 213. SIU Edwardsville 17-12 19-12 OVC <0.1 0.0 16p 295. Fairleigh Dickinson 16-13 17-14 NEC 0.0 16p 310. Wagner 13-12 14-13 NEC 0.0 16p
1-bid leagues: Southern Miss lost to South Alabama and it wasn't close—85-54—so the Golden Eagles drop to a 13-seed but remain the top Sun Belt team. There are four changes among the 16-seed teams, though. Norfolk State edges past North Carolina Central in the MEAC in a very close contest where both teams won two games last week. UNC Asheville moves ahead of Gardner Webb after the Bulldogs topped the Runnin' Bulldogs 75-63. And Tennessee Martin slides past SIU Edwardsville in the Ohio Valley; the Skyhawks beat the Cougars 90-84 last Thursday. Finally, Fairleigh Dickinson beat Wagner 66-48 to put the Knights at the top of the Northeast.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/12) 141. Wichita St. 14-12 15-15 Amer 0.1 +0.1 143. Norfolk St. 19-7 22-8 MEAC 0.1 +0.1 16 144. UNC Asheville 22-7 23-8 BSth 0.1 +0.1 16
Only three teams barely escape the near-zero zone this week, and all three will probably be swamped by it next week anyway. But for now Wichita State's road upset of Temple keeps the Shockers with a theoretical hope. Theoretical only, I'm afraid, as a 12-loss American conference team isn't going to make it under any circumstances. But if they won out from here, beating Memphis, Tulane, and Houston, then made a conference tournament run? They might have a tiny, non-zero chance of an at-large bid. Given that outlook they should probably still be at "<0.1". Anyway, the only others who emerge are favorites in their conference tournaments, so it shouldn't matter when they succumb to the nether zone next week.