The big news last week was the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge. While the Big Twelve won 7 games to 3, the SEC did win three of the biggest games and ended up with two 1-seeds in this week's Dance Chance NCAA tournament bracket projection.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/22) 1. Purdue 21-1 29-2 B10 99.9 +1.3 1 1 2. Tennessee 18-3 28-3 SEC 99.8 +2.6 1 2 3. Alabama 18-3 27-4 SEC 99.5 +1.5 1 1 4. Houston 20-2 29-2 Amer 99.1 +2.6 1 2
Tennessee stormed back onto the 1-line for about the third time this season after beating Texas 82-71 in the Challenge. Their 70-41 win over Georgia had just as much to do with it, as it put them at #1 in Strength this week. Meanwhile Alabama completely shrugged off their huge loss to Oklahoma and held their spot on the top line. While their Strength rating suffered, their games going forward were unaffected as the Tide is a hearty favorite over every opponent except Tennessee.
Realistically, though the SEC is almost certain to have a top seed, they are very unlikely to have two. Whichever team wins their February 15th showdown in Knoxville has the inside track, but ultimately the SEC tournament will decide which team takes a top slot.
Purdue remained the #1 overall seed and is approaching the rare 100% designation; they'll probably get it if they can get past Indiana on the road come Saturday, the only game they're expected to lose going forward. Joining the top line again is Houston; the Cougars narrowly escaped at home vs. Cincinnati but have pretty smooth sailing ahead. A third loss would really compromise their 1-seed hopes, though.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/22) 5. UCLA 17-4 27-4 P12 98.7 +1.1 2 1 6. Arizona 19-3 27-4 P12 98.4 +2.2 2 2 7. Texas 17-4 24-7 B12 98.0 +2.6 2 3 8. Kansas 17-4 24-7 B12 97.6 +1.9 2 3 9. TCU 16-5 24-7 B12 97.3 +2.2 3 3 10. Kansas St. 18-3 24-7 B12 96.9 +4.4 3 5 11. Iowa St. 15-5 21-9 B12 96.5 -1.8 3 1 12. Gonzaga 18-4 26-5 WCC 96.2 +1.5 3 3
UCLA slips out of the top line after losing to USC 77-64, and narrowly remains ahead of Arizona on the 2-seed line. Like the SEC, the Pac-12 has two dominant teams, one of which could find their way to a top spot if they win the Pac-12 tournament. The Wildcats already have a win over Tennessee.
The rest of the 2-3 seed area is Big Twelve territory, with five teams in a row in the 2s and 3s. Texas moved up a seed despite the (expected) loss to Tennessee and becomes the top-ranked Big 12 team. Kansas joins them as a 2-seed despite losing to Baylor last week; they rebounded with the win at Kentucky which either was a major upset or an expected event, depending on who you ask (the Strength ratings say it was expected).
TCU had a mixed week, a huge 79-52 win over Oklahoma followed by an overtime loss at a faltering Mississippi State. It ended up a wash for the Horned Frogs. Kansas State lost to Iowa State on the road but beat Florida handily; again, both results were expected but the Wildcats outperformed in both games, pushing their projection from 22-9 to 24-7 and moving them up two seeds. The reverse happened for the Cyclones, who were a 24-7 1-seed last week but were upset 78-61 at Missouri and now project to 21-9.
Both Kansas State and Iowa State, and really pretty much all of these Big 12 teams have a number of very close games coming up that will determine the pecking order once and for all. Any of these five (plus Baylor) could end up on top. Thought the Big Twelve should ultimately produce a 1-seed, with infighting and an upset winner in the Big Twelve tournament, it's possible the conference ends up with three 2s and three 3s.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/22) 13. Indiana 15-6 23-8 B10 95.8 +1.5 4 4 14. Baylor 16-5 22-9 B12 95.4 +1.9 4 4 15. Connecticut 16-6 24-7 BE 95.1 -1.8 4 2 16. Virginia 16-3 25-4 ACC 94.7 +1.5 4 4 17. Rutgers 14-7 22-9 B10 94.3 +0.4 5 4 18. Florida Atlantic 21-1 29-2 CUSA 94.0 +1.1 5 5 19. Marquette 17-5 24-7 BE 93.6 +1.5 5 5 20. Xavier 17-5 24-7 BE 93.2 +2.6 5 6
Not much going on here except UConn continuing to falter; the Huskies lost at home to Xavier, 82-79, their 6th loss in their last 8 games. Formerly the top overall seed, UConn is still #5 in Strength and expected to win 8 of their last 9 games but now that's only good enough for a 4-seed. They have road games at DePaul and Georgetown and if they lose either of those their season is in trouble, and either Marquette or Xavier (both 5-seeds) will be in the Big East driver's seat.
4-seed Indiana faces top overall seed Purdue this coming Saturday, and the Hoosiers are expected to win that one. The game before that, at Maryland, is one of the 2 remaining games they're supposed to lose, so that's where they could advance their position. Baylor takes on 2-seed Texas in Austin, a big chance for the Bears to join the rest of the Big 6 in the higher seeds.
Florida Atlantic now has the longest winning streak in the country at 20 games, and they will be tested this week in perhaps their toughest remaining games: at UAB and at Charlotte. The Strength power rating narrowly favors UAB to beat the Owls, while FAU is the narrow favorite at Charlotte.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/22) 21. Saint Mary's 19-4 26-5 WCC 92.9 +1.5 6 6 22. Creighton 13-8 23-8 BE 92.5 +2.6 6 7 23. Duke 15-6 23-8 ACC 92.1 +12.4 6 8 24. Illinois 15-6 21-10 B10 91.8 +5.4 6 7 25. New Mexico 19-3 26-5 MWC 91.4 +1.1 7 6 26. North Carolina 15-6 23-8 ACC 89.5 -1.5 7 6 27. Boise St. 17-5 24-7 MWC 87.8 +3.1 7 7 28. Utah St. 17-5 26-5 MWC 86.1 +4.7 7 8 29. Iowa 13-8 20-11 B10 84.4 +13.0 8 9 30. West Virginia 13-8 18-13 B12 82.7 +21.3 8 11 31. Providence 17-5 23-8 BE 80.9 +2.9 8 8 32. Ohio St. 11-10 19-12 B10 79.2 -3.8 8 8
Duke has been quiet lately and had slipped to an 8-seed before last weekend, where an 86-43 drubbing of Georgia Tech gave them a boost to a 6-seed. The Blue Devils are at home against Wake Forest and 7-seed North Carolina this week.
Most of the 7-seed is the Mountain West, still led by New Mexico with Boise State and Utah State close behind. The Lobos travel to face the Aggies on Wednesday. Boise State travels to San Diego State on Friday. In both cases the home teams are favored. Though not as important as the Big 12, the Mountain West is possibly the tightest race, with five teams vying for control.
Of all the Big 12 teams in the SEC challenge West Virginia may have improved their March situation the most. The Mountaineers beating Auburn wasn't a surprise as they are #20 in Strength, but that win and their 76-61 win over Texas Tech boosted their projected record from a questionable 16-15 to a tournament-worthy 18-13, a big difference. They move up from an 11-seed to an 8-seed.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/22) 33. San Diego St. 17-4 22-8 MWC 77.5 +7.8 9 10 34. N.C. State 17-5 24-7 ACC 75.8 +1.1 9 9 35. Nevada 16-6 23-8 MWC 74.1 -2.3 9 9 36. Arkansas 14-7 21-10 SEC 72.4 +6.0 9 10 37. Missouri 16-5 23-8 SEC 70.7 +46.2 10 38. Oral Roberts 19-4 26-4 Sum 68.9 +4.2 10 10 39. Kentucky 14-7 20-11 SEC 67.2 +7.5 10 11 40. Northwestern 15-5 19-12 B10 65.5 +10.8 10 12p 41. Maryland 14-7 20-11 B10 63.8 +12.4 11 12p 42. Sam Houston St. 16-5 25-5 WAC 62.1 +9.0 11 12 43. Miami FL 16-5 21-9 ACC 60.4 -12.7 11 9 44. Charleston 21-2 29-2 CAA 58.6 -33.1 11 5
Of the SEC winners in the Big 12 Challenge, none improved their lot more than Missouri, projected to be an also ran well outside the bubble before they crushed Iowa State 78-61 and made themselves a solid 10-seed. Meanwhile a couple of Challenge losers on Saturday, Arkansas and Kentucky, did well enough that they actually moved up a seed line each (both teams won games earlier in the week, too).
The big news here is the College of Charleston, formerly a 5-seed when priced to perfection, falling to an 11-seed after an upset loss to Hofstra, 85-81, at home. Only #76 in Strength, the Cougars were favored in every game and a 30-1 finish—with only a loss to North Carolina—set them up for a strong seeding. But just one more loss and their #200 strength of schedule catches up to them. Now the team is in danger of missing out on the tournament altogether if they don't win the Colonial Athletic tournament. Their two toughest remaining games are this week: on the road vs. Drexel and Delaware.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/22) 45. Memphis 17-5 24-7 Amer 56.9 -6.1 12 11 46. Kent St. 17-4 27-4 MAC 55.2 -32.9 12 7 47. USC 15-6 21-10 P12 53.5 +19.0 12p 48. Auburn 16-5 20-11 SEC 51.8 -16.3 12p 10 49. Mississippi St. 13-8 21-10 SEC 50.1 +22.3 12p 50. Penn St. 14-7 18-13 B10 48.3 -8.1 12p 12 51. Utah 15-8 19-12 P12 48.1 +0.0 12p 52. Southern Miss 19-4 27-4 SB 46.4 +6.9 13 13 53. Seton Hall 13-9 18-13 BE 44.7 +8.6 54. Washington St. 10-13 16-15 P12 43.0 -4.8 55. Oregon 13-9 18-13 P12 41.2 +3.5 56. Michigan St. 14-8 17-14 B10 39.5 -4.9 57. Virginia Tech 13-8 20-11 ACC 37.8 -5.0 58. Arizona St. 15-7 21-10 P12 36.1 -13.6 12p 59. Florida 12-9 18-13 SEC 34.4 +4.9 60. Clemson 18-4 24-7 ACC 32.7 -13.5 61. Oklahoma St. 12-9 14-17 B12 31.0 -27.1 11 73. Oklahoma 12-9 14-17 B12 10.4 +2.6
The bubble, plus Oklahoma: Kent State is another mid-Major that took a big fall. The Flashes were upset by lowly Northern Illinois (8-13); prior to that loss Kent State had lost only to 21-2 Charleston, 20-2 Houston, and 18-4 Gonzaga, keeping their liabilities in check. They drop from a 7-seed to a 12-seed and also look like they'll need to win the MAC tournament to get in the Big Dance.
USC rode an upset of UCLA to an appearance as a play-in team this week; the Trojans also beat Arizona State, who falls out of the play-in spot themselves, as does Utah who lost to Oregon on Saturday, making it four Pac-12 teams just outside looking in. Mississippi State's upset of TCU not only broke their 5-game skid but they're back in the dance, for now. They join Auburn on the play-in line as a 12-seed.
Oklahoma State won their SEC challenge game against Mississippi handily but their projection fell from 15-16 to 14-17, getting farther away from .500 and dropping them out of their 11-seed perch. And while Oklahoma had the biggest win of the week, dominating Alabama start to finish for a 93-69 upset, it's like it never happened here: they bump up from a 7.8% chance to 10.4%. The problem is the Sooners' remaining schedule: every opponent is in the top 23 in Strength except OK State and Texas Tech, and the Sooners are only #48. Both Oklahoma teams will need several upsets in the Big Twelve to keep their records safely above .500. Then they'll need decent showings in the conference tournament.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/22) 71. Dayton 14-8 22-9 A10 13.8 +4.4 13 72. Drake 17-6 24-7 MVC 12.1 +6.4 13 75. Bradley 15-8 23-8 MVC 6.9 -7.5 13 77. VCU 16-6 24-7 A10 5.1 -21.0 13 81. Yale 14-6 21-6 Ivy 4.6 +0.9 14 14 83. Iona 14-7 24-7 MAAC 4.4 -1.2 14 14 86. UC Irvine 14-7 24-8 BW 4.0 -0.3 14 14 97. Furman 17-6 25-6 SC 2.6 0.0 14 14 100. Montana St. 15-8 23-8 BSky 2.3 +0.0 15 15 108. Youngstown St. 17-6 25-6 Horz 2.1 -0.2 15 15 113. Colgate 16-7 24-7 Pat 2.0 +0.0 15 15 137. Northwestern St. 14-8 22-9 Slnd 1.3 0.0 15 16 141. Vermont 12-10 20-10 AE 1.2 0.0 16 151. Longwood 15-8 22-9 BSth 1.0 -0.6 16 15 156. Grambling St. 13-7 23-7 SWAC 0.8 -0.1 16p 16p 158. UMass Lowell 17-6 23-8 AE 0.8 -0.7 16 160. North Carolina Central 10-10 17-11 MEAC 0.7 -0.6 16p 16p 181. SIU Edwardsville 14-9 21-10 OVC 0.2 -0.5 16p 16p 290. Wagner 11-8 15-12 NEC <0.1 0.0 16p 16p
Three new conference "champs": The Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, and America East have new favorites. Dayton went 1-1 last week but it was enough as VCU was upset at home by St. Bonaventure, dropping the Rams a few spots below the Flyers. Drake leads Bradley by an even narrower margin after the Braves struggled to beat Illinois State (in overtime) and Illinois Chicago (by 7).
And Vermont has won four in a row while UMass Lowell lost twice last week, vs. Maine and New Hampshire on the road. The Catamounts are now comfortably ahead of the River Hawks in the America East.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/22) 164. Murray St. 12-10 16-14 MVC 0.6 +0.6 179. Wofford 13-10 19-12 SC 0.2 +0.2 185. Buffalo 10-11 16-15 MAC 0.1 +0.1
Still hope? These teams emerged from almost-mathematical-zero chance to register on our radar somehow. From the bottom: Buffalo upset Ball State on the road, 91-65, a huge result that propped them back to a 1 in 1000 chance of Big Dance hopes, undiminished by their subsequent loss to Kent State. The future doesn't look good for the Bulls though as they're already under .500 and might not finish above it.
Wofford notched two upset wins in Southern Conference play: Chattanooga on the road and Samford at home. This allegedly gives the Terriers a 1 in 500 chance to qualify for an at-large bid. If they can beat Furman this Saturday then we can talk.
And biggest of all, Murray State suddenly has a huge 0.6% chance for an at-large bid in their future. How did they do it? They stuck close to Southern Illinois on the road, only losing by 4, then upset Missouri State at home, 74-71. This was enough to flip their projection from 14-16 to 16-14. Hey, at least it's above .500. The truth for all of these teams is that they're just putting off the inevitable 0.0% and they'll need to win their conference tournaments to get in. But I hate to tell a team they have no chance.