Dance Chance week #2. Ahead of all the Thanksgiving tournaments, the 2nd week of action causes big changes as the reality of this season—early as it is—starts to sink in.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 1. Alabama SEC 4-0 25-5 29-1 90.3 +9.9 1 1 2. Houston B12 6-0 26-5 31-0 88.4 +8.9 1 1 3. Arizona P12 5-0 26-5 29-2 87.5 +10.1 1 1 4. Connecticut BE 4-0 25-5 30-0 87.0 +6.3 1 1 5. Kansas B12 3-0 22-7 25-4 77.6 +8.4 2 2 6. Tennessee SEC 3-0 23-6 27-2 76.4 +1.0 2 2 7. Purdue B10 3-0 23-6 28-1 74.0 +5.1 2 3 8. Iowa St. B12 4-0 22-7 24-5 72.7 +19.1 2 5
The top seeds remain the same, with Alabama ascending to the top seed in week 2. The Tide have scored 105, 102, 102, and 98 in their first four games against opponents that aren't as bad as that sounds (none are in the bottom 100). They play Ohio State in the first round of the Emerald Classic (not a very stacked tournament). Of the 2-seeds, Purdue is up a notch after getting past Xavier at home 83-71. But it's Iowa State that makes that big move this week, up from a 5-seed at 4-0. The Cyclones didn't beat a major opponent but they've been scorching foes by an average of 45 1/2 points.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 9. Gonzaga WCC 2-0 23-5 26-2 72.0 -0.7 3 2 10. Creighton BE 4-0 23-7 26-4 70.3 +6.9 3 3 11. UCLA P12 3-0 23-7 29-1 69.4 -5.1 3 2 12. Duke ACC 3-1 24-7 28-3 66.7 +12.0 3 5 13. Miami FL ACC 5-0 24-7 28-3 66.2 +11.4 4 4 14. San Diego St. MWC 4-1 23-8 27-4 62.5 +12.1 4 6 15. Marquette BE 3-0 21-8 24-5 61.9 +6.6 4 4 16. Pittsburgh ACC 4-0 23-7 23-7 60.0 +18.0 4 9 17. Texas B12 4-0 21-9 24-6 59.5 -4.2 5 3 18. Kentucky SEC 3-1 21-10 22-9 58.1 +6.3 5 5 19. Virginia ACC 4-0 22-8 26-4 57.8 +9.2 5 7 20. Nevada MWC 4-0 23-7 26-4 57.5 +16.8 5 10
Gonzaga and UCLA both drop to 3-seeds and actually lose ground in terms of tournament odds, an oddity near the top. Gonzaga didn't play so it wasn't their fault, and besides the Zags play 2-seed Purdue tonight in the first round of an absolute KILLER Maui Classic (held in Honolulu this year for obvious reasons). UCLA slips a notch again as the reality sets in that they don't have Tiger Clarke or Jamie Jaques any more. They get a chance to prove themselves against 4-seed Marquette tonight—also in the Maui Classic.
Duke slipped past Miami to reclaim the ACC "title"; the Blue Devils beat Michigan State in Chicago last week and moved up to a 3-seed. San Diego State rebounded from their loss to BYU by beating St. Mary's and Washington in Las Vegas and they're back up to a 4-seed. But Pittsburgh is the star on the 4-line as the Panthers' 51-point win over Jacksonville has their stock up, at least for now. They'll have to prove it against better competition pretty soon, starting with Florida on Wednesday and then either Baylor or Oregon State after, then Missouri, Clemson, and West Virginia over the next few weeks; that stretch will show whether they're going to challenge Duke and Miami (and Virginia, who is up two seeds to a 5-seed) in the ACC.
Texas drops a few seeds for only beating Louisville by a point. Any other time in the last 40 years that would be something to brag about, but the Cardinals have been in rough shape since the pandemic basically. The Longhorns need to gear up for 1-seed UConn tonight. Nevada comes at the 5-seed from a different direction, up from a 10-seed after blowing out Pacific 88-39 and Portland 108-83. They won't be tested much before the Mountain West conference season but they're looking like a contender so far.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 21. Baylor B12 4-0 20-10 22-8 57.4 +6.9 6 6 22. TCU B12 4-0 20-10 25-5 56.1 +6.4 6 6 23. Utah St. MWC 3-1 23-8 29-2 53.9 +9.3 6 8 24. Mississippi St. SEC 5-0 22-9 23-8 52.6 +11.4 6 9 25. Texas A&M SEC 4-0 20-9 22-7 52.4 +3.6 7 6 26. BYU B12 4-0 20-11 15-16 52.1 +20.2 7 27. Bradley MVC 3-0 24-6 28-2 51.4 +15.1 7 12 28. Memphis Amer 3-0 21-8 27-2 49.7 -7.0 7 3 29. North Carolina ACC 3-0 19-10 19-10 49.4 +8.4 8 10 30. Xavier BE 3-2 20-11 23-8 48.8 +1.1 8 7 31. Colorado P12 3-0 20-10 21-9 47.3 +5.9 8 9 32. Clemson ACC 4-0 20-11 22-9 46.7 +10.4 8 12p
Mississippi State had a good weekend, beating Washington State and Northwestern in the Hall of Fame tipoff. BYU didn't play nearly as good of opponents but they jump into the seeds at a 7 after beating SE Louisiana and Morgan State by a combined 100 points. Now there are only six teams ahead of the Cougars in their new conference, the Big Twelve; they have only a few decent tests before getting into conference play. They start the Vegas Showdown on Thursday vs. Arizona State.
Bradley makes a solid jump too, up 5 lines from a 12-seed. After winning two overtime games to start the season, the Braves won comfortably against Tarleton State but more importantly, previous victim Utah State recovered with a few solid wins and propped themselves up to a 6-seed which helped Bradley. Clemson also jumped quite a bit, from the bubble to a low 8-seed; they beat ex-10-seed Boise State 85-68.
Memphis, last week's big mover up, is a big mover down this week. A weak game vs. lowly Alabama State more than offset last week's win over Missouri (who has been struggling ever since, downgrading that win). So the Tigers are now lower than the 6-seed where they started, but still tops in the American Athletic conference (for now).
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 33. Arkansas SEC 3-1 19-10 22-7 45.6 -10.1 9 4 34. Utah P12 3-2 18-12 19-11 45.2 +1.8 9 8 35. Oregon P12 3-0 20-10 22-8 45.2 0.0 9 7 36. Auburn SEC 3-1 21-10 25-6 44.1 +2.0 9 8 37. Iowa B10 3-1 19-11 21-9 43.9 +0.5 10 8 38. Florida Atlantic Amer 2-1 21-9 26-4 43.8 -9.6 10 5 39. N.C. State ACC 3-0 20-10 23-7 43.8 +7.5 10 11 40. Princeton Ivy 4-0 22-5 26-1 43.5 +9.9 10 41. Oklahoma B12 4-0 19-12 15-16 42.0 +10.8 11 42. Drake MVC 3-0 22-7 25-4 41.7 +8.7 11 43. Cincinnati B12 4-0 19-12 17-14 40.5 +5.5 11 44. Michigan B10 3-1 18-11 16-13 40.5 -1.4 12p 9 45. Liberty CUSA 5-0 24-7 27-4 40.4 +12.1 11 13 46. Michigan St. B10 3-2 19-12 21-10 37.5 0.0 12p 11 47. USC P12 3-1 18-12 19-11 36.1 -11.0 12p 7 48. New Mexico MWC 2-1 20-11 23-8 36.1 +2.6 12p
Arkansas is another team that drops significantly, from a 4-seed to a 9-seed. The reason is a home loss to UNC-Greensboro which puts the Razorbacks at 3-1 and changes their outlook from 21-8 to 19-10. Florida Atlantic mimics Arkansas' 5-line drop by falling from 5 to 10 after suffering their own home embarrassment, losing 61-52 to Bryant. Overconfidence or just overrated? The Owls can redeem themselves vs. Butler in the first round of the ESPN Events tournament, an 8-team affair that includes Iowa State and Texas A&M. Arkansas heads to Nassau to take on Stanford in the Battle 4 Atlantis, which boasts North Carolina and Memphis among others.
New teams in the seedings include Princeton who already has wins over Rutgers and Duquesne; Oklahoma, who despite being favored only for 15 wins (vs. 16 losses) grades out to 19-12 with their tough Big 12 schedule; Drake of the Missouri Valley who was 3-0 at the time of this projection but has already lost to Stephen F Austin in the Cayman Islands tournament so they might not be here next week; Cincinnati, who is doing the "blitzing poor opponents" thing prior to their Big 12 entry; and New Mexico, who slips in as a play-in team after edging Texas-Arlington 82-80 at home. Oddly this puts them 1 spot ahead of St. Mary's who beat them 72-58 in week one.
Some big names slip to the bottom of the bubble, including Michigan and Michigan State. The Spartans fell to Duke, but the earlier James Madison loss is still dragging them down. The Wolverines lost to Long Beach State at home, 94-86 which isn't a horrible loss but calls their outlook into question. USC drops the most, from a 7-seed to a 12-seed play in, following a home loss to Cal-Irvine last Tuesday. Meanwhile Liberty is soaring in our power ratings; they're in the top 10 or even the top 5 if you don't use any priors, but only an 11-seed if you do.
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 49. Saint Mary's WCC 2-3 20-11 26-5 35.8 -19.7 4 50. Toledo MAC 3-0 22-8 26-4 35.6 +1.7 12 12 51. Texas Tech B12 3-0 17-12 16-13 34.7 +1.4 52. Yale Ivy 4-2 21-8 24-5 34.6 -0.4 12 53. Penn St. B10 4-0 19-10 20-9 34.5 -0.3 54. Providence BE 4-1 19-12 19-12 34.0 +2.9 55. Rutgers B10 4-1 19-12 20-11 33.7 -1.4 12p 59. Illinois B10 4-1 19-13 18-14 32.6 -4.7 11 62. Boise St. MWC 2-1 17-12 19-10 31.0 -7.9 10 77. Northwestern B10 4-1 18-13 19-12 24.7 -12.6 11
St. Mary's took a big dive from a 4-seed to the First Team Out this week. 2-1 going into the week, they lost two more to San Diego State (79-54) and Xavier (66-49). Those are good teams but the games weren't competitive by the 30 minute mark in either case. They're only underdogs in two more games (guess who that is) in the WCC, but project to just 20-11.
The other teams that fall out were on the bubble to start with, so it's mostly random fluctuation. Yale got booted from the Ivy League "title" so they are no longer seeded; Rutgers won twice but they were on the Play-in line; Illinois lost to Marquette at home, not a terrible thing but if you're a bubble team it might knock you out; Boise State as mentioned above got beat by Clemson; and Northwestern drops out after losing to Mississippi State in tournament play. The Big Ten continues to be re-evaluated downward pretty much across the board, with Purdue the big exception.