It's that time of year again—pre-season basketball rankings! With that in mind I've taken a cue from football and punted. This year's teams will be a lot like last year's teams and the path of least resistance is to just assume no change in team quality. Using this year's schedule and last year's Strength ratings, adding a lot of uncertainty and running a Monte Carlo simulation, we get the following top four seeds:
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 1. Connecticut BE 0-0 24-6 30-0 76.4 0.0 1 2. Alabama SEC 0-0 24-6 29-1 75.6 0.0 1 3. UCLA P12 0-0 25-5 30-0 74.2 0.0 1 4. Houston B12 0-0 23-6 28-1 73.3 0.0 1 5. Tennessee SEC 0-0 22-7 28-1 67.3 0.0 2 6. Gonzaga WCC 0-0 23-5 26-2 67.3 0.0 2 7. Texas B12 0-0 22-8 27-3 65.4 0.0 2 8. Arizona P12 0-0 22-9 27-4 59.8 0.0 2 9. Kansas B12 0-0 20-9 25-4 59.5 0.0 3 10. Saint Mary's WCC 0-0 24-6 29-1 59.1 0.0 3 11. Purdue B10 0-0 19-10 27-2 55.8 0.0 3 12. Creighton BE 0-0 21-9 25-5 55.5 0.0 3 13. Marquette BE 0-0 20-9 24-5 53.3 0.0 4 14. Baylor B12 0-0 19-10 21-8 52.5 0.0 4 15. Duke ACC 0-0 23-8 27-4 51.8 0.0 4 16. Florida Atlantic Amer 0-0 22-8 27-3 50.3 0.0 4
Look familiar? UConn at #1, Alabama and Houston as 1-seeds, UCLA joining them. Right away, that last one's a dead giveaway that we're starting with last year's ratings, as UCLA loses their two superstars and most consider the Bruins a borderline top 25 team at best. Ditto for Alabama, only #23 in the AP.
The rest of the top four seeds follows the same way: last year's ratings producing a pretty good prediction for this year's results, for the most part. Kansas is the AP's #1 team but they start a 3-seed here. Purdue is another consensus top four but they're also a 3-seed. Check out their projected record: either 27-2 game-by-game, or 19-10 by cumulative prediction. That's due to a tough schedule (they have #2 Alabama, #5 Gonzaga, and #8 Arizona on their pre-conference slate) and lots of close games that count as a win game-by-game. Add in a lot of variance in the formula early on and the Boilermakers might have double digit losses despite being one of the top teams.
Duke starts as a projected 4-seed but is expected by many to vie for a 1-seed. And what about Florida Atlantic? Will they be as good as last year? We start them at a 4-seed, much better than the 9-seed they ended up last year but lower than their AP top ten ranking.
Here's another team in the AP top 4:
33. Michigan St. B10 0-0 19-12 22-9 41.8 0.0 9
Only a 9-seed for the Spartans? That's even lower than they were last year (a 7-seed). But they've already lost an upset to James Madison. Remember how everyone was touting North Carolina as the #1 team? It would have been better to assume they didn't improve from 2022, and even then that would have overrated them (Note: UNC projects as a 10-seed, using last year's numbers, so they probably got a bit unlucky in 2022-2023).
We're not saying it's more accurate to just use last year's numbers, but even with voluminous study it's hard to be a lot more accurate. And it serves as a decent starting point. As we begin to add in this season's results, things will make sense pretty quickly.
Note that only 16 teams start with more than a 50% chance to make the tournament. That's due to the wide variance we give the model. We don't know how good these teams are really going to be, so we specify a wide range—enough so that only 12 teams show absolutely no chance of making the tournament as an at-large:
351. Bethune Cookman SWAC 0-0 13-19 8-24 0.0 0.0 352. South Carolina St. MEAC 0-0 8-22 4-26 0.0 0.0 353. Lamar Slnd 0-0 11-20 6-25 0.0 0.0 354. Monmouth CAA 0-0 8-23 1-30 0.0 0.0 355. Delaware St. MEAC 0-0 9-21 4-26 0.0 0.0 356. Houston Christian Slnd 0-0 8-21 3-26 0.0 0.0 357. Florida A&M SWAC 0-0 8-21 3-26 0.0 0.0 358. Mississippi Valley St. SWAC 0-0 6-23 3-26 0.0 0.0 359. IUPUI Horz 0-0 9-22 4-27 0.0 0.0 360. Green Bay Horz 0-0 6-25 3-28 0.0 0.0 361. LIU NEC 0-0 6-23 3-26 0.0 0.0 362. Le Moyne * NEC 0-0 6-24 3-27 0.0 0.0
Apologies to Bethune Cookman, South Carolina State, Lamar, Monmouth, Delaware State, Houston Christian, Florida A&M, Mississippi Valley, IUPUI, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Long Island, and newcomer Le Moyne. We don't think this is your year.
Really, only 11 teams are truly hopeless: those with an asterisk are ineligible this year. And being realistic, probably half of the 362 division one teams don't really have a chance at an at-large bid, but instead of making assumptions we are going to let them settle things on the court. So as of right now, 350 teams have a Dance Chance, no matter how slim!
Oh and though the "bubble" has almost zero meaning right now, if you want to see the bubble here it is:
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 41. USC P12 0-0 18-12 19-11 38.5 0.0 11 42. Penn St. B10 0-0 18-11 20-9 37.9 0.0 11p 43. Ohio St. B10 0-0 18-12 18-12 37.1 0.0 11p 44. UAB Amer 0-0 21-9 26-4 36.9 0.0 11p 45. N.C. State ACC 0-0 20-10 24-6 36.4 0.0 11p 46. Utah Valley WAC 0-0 21-9 27-3 36.0 0.0 11 47. Oral Roberts Sum 0-0 23-6 25-4 35.2 0.0 12 48. Oklahoma St. B12 0-0 18-12 18-12 35.1 0.0 49. Providence BE 0-0 19-11 18-12 34.9 0.0 50. Nevada MWC 0-0 20-10 25-5 34.6 0.0 51. Yale Ivy 0-0 21-8 26-3 34.2 0.0 12 52. Charleston CAA 0-0 22-7 26-3 34.0 0.0 12 53. North Texas Amer 0-0 18-8 20-6 33.4 0.0 54. Cincinnati B12 0-0 18-13 15-16 33.0 0.0
USC, Penn State, Ohio State, UAB, and NC State are the current 11-seeds with most of them being play-in teams. The last five out—skipping over presumed automatic qualifiers—are Oklahoma State, Providence, Nevada, North Texas, and Cincy.
The Trojans start in the AP top 25 while Penn State and Ohio State lack a single vote, so this is a diverse group! Another "underrated" team in our starting seeding is Villanova:
84. Villanova BE 0-0 15-13 13-15 24.8 0.0
The Wildcats are #22 in the AP poll but are expected to finish 15-13 (or 13-15 game by game) this year, not good enough for the tourney. Other formula-driven ratings (such as KenPom) have them in the top 25 too, so it will be interesting to see if they rise, and if so how quickly.
And just for completeness' sake (and to preserve the pre-season seedings as the Dance Chance page will change) here is the middle of the seedlines:
| Record | Dance Chance | Seed Rank Team Conf Rec Proj Chalk %Odds %Chg Proj Prev 17. TCU B12 0-0 20-10 22-8 49.7 0.0 5 18. West Virginia B12 0-0 20-10 23-7 49.5 0.0 5 19. Arkansas SEC 0-0 20-9 25-4 48.6 0.0 5 20. San Diego St. MWC 0-0 21-9 26-4 48.4 0.0 5 21. Xavier BE 0-0 20-10 24-6 47.1 0.0 6 22. Memphis Amer 0-0 21-8 26-3 46.9 0.0 6 23. Utah St. MWC 0-0 22-9 29-2 46.5 0.0 6 24. Iowa St. B12 0-0 19-10 22-7 45.8 0.0 6 25. Kentucky SEC 0-0 20-11 23-8 45.5 0.0 7 26. Indiana B10 0-0 19-11 20-10 45.1 0.0 7 27. Miami FL ACC 0-0 22-8 26-4 44.2 0.0 7 28. Rutgers B10 0-0 20-11 23-8 43.2 0.0 7 29. Kansas St. B12 0-0 18-12 22-8 42.8 0.0 8 30. Maryland B10 0-0 19-11 20-10 42.8 0.0 8 31. Illinois B10 0-0 20-12 19-13 42.2 0.0 8 32. Auburn SEC 0-0 20-10 24-6 41.8 0.0 8 33. Michigan St. B10 0-0 19-12 22-9 41.8 0.0 9 34. Iowa B10 0-0 19-11 18-12 40.9 0.0 9 35. Boise St. MWC 0-0 19-10 22-7 40.3 0.0 9 36. Virginia ACC 0-0 21-9 26-4 40.3 0.0 9 37. Northwestern B10 0-0 19-11 20-10 39.7 0.0 10 38. Oregon P12 0-0 20-10 22-8 39.7 0.0 10 39. North Carolina ACC 0-0 19-10 19-10 39.3 0.0 10 40. Texas A&M SEC 0-0 18-11 20-9 38.9 0.0 10
Check for updates as the season continues.