Once again, let's take a look at last week (Jan 15-22) and see how the Dance Chance odds changed:
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/15)
1. Purdue 19-1 29-2 B10 98.7 +1.6 1 1
2. Iowa St. 14-4 24-6 B12 98.4 +4.6 1 3
3. Alabama 17-2 28-3 SEC 98.0 +2.0 1 1
4. UCLA 17-3 28-3 P12 97.6 +2.0 1 2
There are two new 1-seeds since last Sunday, and not what I expected from the Dance Chance algorithm but here we are. Purdue maintains the overall #1 seed—that part wasn't a surprise, nor was Alabama remaining on the 1-seed line; both won two conference games and are nearing "lock" status. But the replacements for the fallen 1-seeds were a bit shocking, especially Iowa State ending up at the #2 spot! The Cyclones trounced Texas 78-67 at home mid-week, but then lost to Oklahoma State 61-59, a game they were "supposed" to win. Yet their projection went from 23-7 to 24-6 as future road games vs. Kansas State and West Virginia now tilt their way. Those margins are razor-thin and could turn "back" next week, so stay tuned. Iowa State faces Kansas State at home on Tuesday, and better win that one if they want the road game to be in their favor.
The final 1-seed is UCLA, who lost to Arizona on Saturday after beating Arizona State earlier in the week. The Bruins moved to a 1-seed despite their projection falling to 28-3 which is interesting, but the former 1-seeds (Kansas & Houston) had bad enough losses that they "fell past" UCLA, and the Bruins have "better" losses than Tennessee so the Vols didn't pass them up. Both teams have lost to Arizona, while Tennessee has losses to Colorado and Kentucky, while UCLA lost to Illinois and Baylor.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/15)
5. Tennessee 16-3 28-3 SEC 97.3 +2.0 2 2
6. Connecticut 16-5 26-5 BE 96.9 +2.0 2 2
7. Houston 18-2 29-2 Amer 96.5 +0.1 2 1
8. Arizona 17-3 27-4 P12 96.1 +4.6 2 4
9. Kansas 16-3 24-7 B12 95.8 -1.0 3 1
10. Texas 16-3 24-7 B12 95.4 +1.2 3 3
11. TCU 15-4 24-7 B12 95.0 +11.8 3 7
12. Gonzaga 17-4 26-5 WCC 94.7 +0.1 3 2
Houston's fall from a 1-seed was due to their 56-66 home loss to unheralded Temple. The Cougars have the #83 schedule in the country and will end up with about the #90 schedule, so each additional loss will hurt them a lot. There are few big names on their future slate so they can only move down; any upward movement comes courtesy of the teams above them losing in upset. But Houston might be in luck if you look at Kansas. The Jayhawks were the overall #1 seed a few weeks ago but a few close calls followed by losses to Kansas State and TCU have dumped them to a 3-seed. The overtime road loss to the Wildcats wasn't a bad thing, but the 83-60 home loss to TCU was a back-breaker for their 1-seed. It doesn't get easier as Kansas faces Baylor and then Kentucky in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge; both games are on the road. And speaking of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, the marquee game Saturday is 2-seed Tennessee vs. 3-seed Texas in Knoxville.
TCU's vault up three seeds was due solely to the big road win; in fact, they lost earlier in the week to West Virginia, as expected. Last week they projected to 19-12, now it's 24-7 as their Strength rating got a huge boost. Arizona, of course, beat UCLA in a minor upset and restored some of their luster. Once a 1-seed themselves, they're back up to a 2. All of this will depend heavily on conference tournaments of course.
Gonzaga's loss to Loyola Marymount at home was perhaps a bigger shocker than Kansas' or Houston's loss, as Gonzaga held the current home win streak at 76 and the Lions were not the team people expected to break it. The Zags drop a seed-line just when they seemed to be putting it all together. They have a week to regroup before facing St. Mary's (at home) in two Saturdays.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/15)
13. Indiana 13-6 24-7 B10 94.3 +7.8 4 7
14. Rutgers 13-6 23-8 B10 93.9 +0.5 4 3
15. Baylor 14-5 22-9 B12 93.6 +0.5 4 3
16. Virginia 15-3 25-4 ACC 93.2 +0.5 4 4
17. Florida Atlantic 19-1 30-1 CUSA 92.8 +2.7 5 5
18. Kansas St. 17-2 22-9 B12 92.5 +0.5 5 4
19. Marquette 16-5 24-7 BE 92.1 +1.2 5 5
20. Charleston 21-1 30-1 CAA 91.7 +1.2 5 5
Indiana is the big mover here, up 3 seeds from a 7-seed after upsetting Illinois on the road and beating Michigan State. Their projection improved dramatically from 20-11 to 24-7, including the Purdue game (note that Purdue is projected 29-2; Indiana is the 2nd loss). Meanwhile Rutgers is coming back down to earth a bit; they lost to Michigan State 70-57 in Lansing. Baylor also falls a seed despite winning twice this week. Their 2-point win over Oklahoma wasn't strong enough to keep them at a 4-seed. The Bears face Arkansas in the SEC/Big Twelve Challenge Saturday after taking on Kansas Monday night.
Kansas State drops from a 4- to a 5-seed the same week they beat Kansas and Texas Tech to go 17-2. The Wildcats soared up to #5 in the AP poll but here they are the #6 team in the Big Twelve! The truth is that the Big Twelve is replete with great teams and all the game projections are very close. Quality and parity will do that to you. The Wildcats travel to Iowa State this coming week and then take on Florida in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/15)
21. Saint Mary's 18-4 26-5 WCC 91.4 +2.0 6 6
22. North Carolina 14-6 23-8 ACC 91.0 +1.3 6 6
23. Xavier 16-4 23-8 BE 90.6 -1.7 6 4
24. New Mexico 18-2 26-5 MWC 90.2 +1.3 6 6
25. Creighton 11-8 22-9 BE 89.9 +16.3 7 9
26. Kent St. 16-3 28-3 MAC 88.1 -0.5 7 6
27. Illinois 13-6 20-11 B10 86.4 -4.8 7 5
28. Boise St. 15-5 24-7 MWC 84.7 +6.3 7 8
29. Ohio St. 11-8 20-11 B10 83.1 +6.3 8 8
30. Utah St. 16-4 26-5 MWC 81.4 +9.4 8 9
31. Duke 14-5 22-9 ACC 79.7 -8.5 8 7
32. Providence 15-5 23-8 BE 78.1 +2.9 8 9
Xavier drops back a couple of seeds after their stunning loss to DePaul broke an 11-game win streak; they have UConn next, on the road. In other Big East news, Creighton continues to recover from their early-season slump and has won 5 of their last 7; the Bluejays host Xavier on Saturday.
Illinois falls two seeds from a 5-seed to a 7-seed. The loss to Indiana was an upset and the 80-65 score hurt the Illini's Strength rating too. Next up is Ohio State, who holds at an 8-seed after a stunning loss to Nebraska put their losing streak at 5-games, before a big home win over Iowa seems to have righted the ship for now.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/15)
33. Nevada 15-5 24-7 MWC 76.4 -3.6 9 8
34. N.C. State 15-5 24-7 ACC 74.7 -10.2 9 7
35. Miami FL 15-4 22-8 ACC 73.1 -8.6 9 8
36. Iowa 12-7 18-13 B10 71.4 +1.1 9 9
37. San Diego St. 15-4 22-8 MWC 69.7 +4.2 10 10
38. Auburn 16-3 22-9 SEC 68.1 +4.2 10 10
39. Arkansas 13-6 21-10 SEC 66.4 -2.3 10 10
40. Oral Roberts 17-4 26-4 Sum 64.7 +2.5 10 11
41. Memphis 15-5 24-7 Amer 63.1 +17.3 11 12p
42. West Virginia 11-8 16-15 B12 61.4 -5.7 11 10
43. Kentucky 13-6 20-11 SEC 59.7 -0.9 11 11
44. Oklahoma St. 11-8 15-16 B12 58.1 +26.8 11
NC State's loss to North Carolina was probably a bit worse than expected as the Wolfpack fall from a 7- to a 9-seed. Their 24-7 projection didn't change. It appears that the ACC was downgraded across the board this week, with teams' Dance Chance odds either declining or only rising a very tiny amount. Not sure what precipitated this but the conference isn't having its best year.
The Big Twelve is having a great year, as evidenced by Oklahoma State's appearance in the seedings. The Cowboys beat Iowa State the same week the Cyclones rise to a 1-seed, so that's a stellar win to have under your belt. It's going to take better than a 16-15 record though, unless they go on a conference tournament tear. The Cowboys host Mississippi in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge this coming Saturday, while Auburn travels to West Virginia.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/15)
45. Penn St. 13-6 19-12 B10 56.4 +3.8 12 12p
46. Northwestern 12-5 17-13 B10 54.7 +5.4 12p 12p
47. Sam Houston St. 15-5 25-5 WAC 53.1 -4.4 12 11
48. Maryland 12-7 19-12 B10 51.4 -7.6 12p 11
49. Arizona St. 15-5 22-9 P12 49.7 -1.2 12p 12p
50. Utah 14-7 19-12 P12 48.1 +24.9 12p
51. Washington St. 9-12 16-15 P12 47.8 +19.8
52. Clemson 16-4 24-7 ACC 46.1 +1.9
53. Michigan St. 13-7 17-14 B10 44.4 +34.2
54. Virginia Tech 11-8 20-11 ACC 42.8 +0.2
55. Colorado 12-9 17-14 P12 41.1 -13.1 12
56. Southern Miss 17-4 26-5 SB 39.4 +32.4 13
57. Oregon 11-9 18-13 P12 37.8 +17.9
58. Seton Hall 12-9 16-15 BE 36.1 +9.7
59. USC 14-6 20-11 P12 34.4 +21.0
60. Pittsburgh 13-7 21-10 ACC 32.8 -23.0 12
Bubble time: Not a lot of changing, mostly re-arranging, for the Last Four In, but Utah takes the last spot away from Washington State by beating the Cougars last week. Utah and Arizona State are the last two teams in, and Washington State, Colorado, Oregon, and USC are still hopefuls. Probably two of the six will make it, and that might be determined by the Pac-12 tournament.
The Big Ten also has a lot of bubble teams, with Penn State, Northwestern, and Maryland barely in, and Michigan State barely out. And the ACC has three teams in this region, all slightly underwater: Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh who drops from a 12-seed after a home loss to Florida State (see Back from the Dead).
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/15)
61. Marshall 17-4 26-5 SB 31.1 -16.3 13
64. VCU 15-5 25-6 A10 26.1 +20.9 13
67. Liberty 16-5 26-5 ASun 21.1 +6.0 13 13
71. Bradley 13-8 23-8 MVC 14.4 -24.9 13 13
74. Dayton 13-7 23-8 A10 9.4 -38.3 13
80. Iona 13-6 25-6 MAAC 5.5 -1.3 14 14
89. UC Irvine 13-6 24-8 BW 4.2 -1.8 14 14
93. Yale 13-6 20-7 Ivy 3.7 -0.5 14 14
100. Furman 15-6 25-6 SC 2.7 +0.0 14 15
115. Youngstown St. 15-6 24-7 Horz 2.3 -1.8 15 14
117. Montana St. 13-8 22-9 BSky 2.2 -1.0 15 15
129. Colgate 14-7 24-7 Pat 1.9 -0.4 15 15
142. Longwood 15-6 23-8 BSth 1.6 -0.5 15 16
144. UMass Lowell 17-4 26-5 AE 1.5 -0.2 16 16p
150. Northwestern St. 12-8 22-9 Slnd 1.4 +0.5 16 16p
152. North Carolina Central 10-8 19-9 MEAC 1.3 -0.6 16p 16
166. Grambling St. 11-7 23-7 SWAC 1.0 -0.3 16p 16p
177. SIU Edwardsville 14-7 23-8 OVC 0.7 -1.7 16p 15
269. Wagner 11-7 16-11 NEC <0.1 0.0 16p
309. Fairleigh Dickinson 12-10 17-14 NEC <0.1 0.0 16p
The 1-bids: Marshall had been the Sun Belt favorite for a while but the Herd were leapfrogged by Southern Miss who surged up 32% after trouncing James Madison. It was partly Marshall's fault, too; they dropped 16% after needing overtime to beat lowly Arkansas State.
And VCU replaces Dayton as the Atlantic Ten favorite. The Rams have won 10 of their last 11 (including a win over the Flyers) while Dayton just lost to George Washington.
Not much else of interesting until Wagner reclaims the NorthEast Conference auto-bid. They did so by basically treading water while Fairleigh Dickinson shot themselves in the foot, losing twice over the weekend.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/15)
185. Florida St. 7-13 9-22 ACC 0.5 +0.5
186. Weber St. 10-10 15-16 BSky 0.4 +0.4
197. George Washington 10-9 15-16 A10 0.2 +0.2
Back from the Dead: Three teams went from no-hope (<0.1%) to tiny-amount-of-hope this week. Florida State is the big story; the Seminoles beat Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, only their 2nd 2-game win streak this season. Not sure they really have a 1 in 200 chance to get an at-large bid but they at least have the schedule to make it happen if they somehow go on a miracle run.
Weber State really doesn't have that schedule in the Big Sky, so their purported 1 in 250 odds are probably too generous still. But they've earned their vacation out of the grave with back-to-back wins over Portland State and Sacramento State.
And George Washington is at least still in single digits in the L column, so they might really have a 1 in 500 shot at a bid. They beat George Mason and Dayton last week and have a pretty easy run coming up, so they might actually be able to stay ahead of the ever-expanding cloud of "<0.1%" that rolls upward on the Dance Chance chart week by week. For a while, at least.