SportsRatings: College Basketball

How many teams from each conference will make the Big Dance? The multi-bid leagues

Two months to go, how are the conferences looking in terms of the NCAA tournament? Let's look at how many teams each conference has right now according to the Dance Chance and what the odds say about Selection Sunday, starting with every conference expected to have multiple bids.

Big Ten     teams now: 9    selection Sunday: 7.5 (6-10)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  1. Purdue                   18-1   30-1    B10    97.9     1
 13. Rutgers                  13-6   22-9    B10    93.5     4
 17. Indiana                  12-6   23-8    B10    92.0     5
 25. Illinois                 13-6   20-11   B10    89.1     7
 32. Iowa                     12-6   19-11   B10    77.5     8
 36. Ohio St.                 10-8   19-12   B10    70.9     9
 45. Penn St.                 12-6   19-12   B10    56.1    12
 47. Northwestern             12-5   18-12   B10    52.8    12p
 48. Maryland                 12-6   19-12   B10    51.2    12p
 51. Michigan St.             13-6   17-14   B10    47.6     
 71. Wisconsin                12-5   15-15   B10    14.8     
 79. Michigan                 10-8   14-17   B10     6.1     
 98. Nebraska                 10-9   12-19   B10     3.2     
215. Minnesota                 7-10   7-23   B10    <0.1     

Right now the Big Ten has 9 teams in the Dance and the First team out, too! Very close to 10 teams but that will probably be 7 or 8 come Selection Sunday. Purdue is the overall #1 right now but won't be unless they win the Big Ten tournament too. Rutgers, Indiana, and Illinois look pretty solid and Iowa and Ohio State are good bets. Penn State, Northwestern, and Maryland are bubble teams, as is Michigan State—who just climbed back into the picture with a win at Rutgers. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska are longer shots, while Minnesota is almost certainly out of luck. The Big Ten should end up with 8 teams unless there are a lot of conference tournament upsets that reduce available spots. And having 10 teams is still solidly in play.

Big Twelve     teams now: 7    selection Sunday: 7 (7-9)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  2. Kansas                   16-2   26-5    B12    97.6     1
  6. Iowa St.                 14-3   24-6    B12    96.1     2
  9. Texas                    15-3   24-7    B12    95.0     3
 11. Baylor                   13-5   22-9    B12    94.2     3
 14. Kansas St.               16-2   22-9    B12    93.1     4
 28. TCU                      14-4   20-11   B12    84.0     7
 30. West Virginia            11-7   18-13   B12    80.7     8
 55. Oklahoma St.             10-8   14-17   B12    41.0     
 60. Texas Tech               10-8   15-16   B12    32.8     
 74. Oklahoma                 11-7   13-18   B12     9.8     

The toughest conference is going to have a tough time fitting all the deserving teams in the Dance. Five teams are already near locks: Kansas, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State will be in, in almost any order among the five. TCU and West Virginia are strong, too. Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma look like victims of conference parity, but it's possible that one (or two) of them get in, too. 

ACC     teams now: 6    selection Sunday: 5.5 (5-8)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
 12. Virginia                 14-3   25-4    ACC    93.9     3
 22. North Carolina           13-6   23-8    ACC    90.2     6
 31. Duke                     13-5   22-9    ACC    79.1     8
 33. N.C. State               15-4   24-7    ACC    75.8     9
 35. Miami FL                 15-3   22-8    ACC    72.5     9
 43. Pittsburgh               13-6   22-9    ACC    59.4    11
 57. Clemson                  15-4   24-7    ACC    37.7     
 59. Virginia Tech            11-7   20-11   ACC    34.5     
 85. Wake Forest              14-5   18-13   ACC     5.2     
104. Syracuse                 12-7   17-14   ACC     2.8     
159. Georgia Tech              8-10  13-18   ACC     1.3     
194. Notre Dame                9-10  11-20   ACC     0.4     
217. Florida St.               6-13   8-23   ACC    <0.1     
231. Boston College            8-11   9-22   ACC    <0.1     
347. Louisville                2-17   2-29   ACC    <0.1     

The ACC isn't the 3rd strongest conference but might have the 3rd-most picks. Six teams are "in" right now and they'll most likely get 5 or 6. Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke look pretty automatic, and NC State and Miami are positioned well right now. If they get a 6th team Pittsburgh is the leading candidate at the moment, though Clemson and Wake Forest will fight them. And it's possible they all get in, just not likely since the conference isn't as hightly-touted this year. Wake Forest and Syracuse still have a chance but might barely finish above .500, and Georgia Tech and Notre Dame are already under .500 and therefore very long-shots at this point. Florida State and Boston College are essentially at zero chance, and Louisville is very close to being mathematically eliminated, if there were such a thing.

Big East     teams now: 6    selection Sunday: 5 (5-7)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  8. Connecticut              15-5   26-5    BE     95.4     2
 16. Marquette                15-5   24-7    BE     92.4     4
 21. Xavier                   15-4   23-8    BE     90.6     6
 24. Creighton                11-8   22-9    BE     89.4     6
 34. Providence               14-5   23-8    BE     74.2     9
 50. Seton Hall               12-8   17-14   BE     47.9    12p
 66. St. John's               13-6   18-13   BE     23.0     
 90. Butler                   11-9   14-17   BE      4.4     
124. Villanova                 9-10  11-20   BE      2.2     
173. DePaul                    9-10  10-21   BE      1.0     
268. Georgetown                5-14   5-26   BE     <0.1     

The Big East is another smaller conference like the Big Twelve but not nearly as strong. Still, it's clearly a major conference (there was some doubt of that when the "new" Big East was created in 2013). UConn, Marquette, and Xavier are near locks, while Creighton even at 11-8 is playing well enough to be solidly in the mix. Providence is above the bubble, and Seton Hall is right on the bubble. Probably one of those won't make it, but it's possible they all do and that St. John's or another team makes it 7 teams, but that's not too likely: Butler has 9 losses already and Villanova and DePaul 10 apiece, and Georgetown is a lost cause. 

SEC     teams now: 5    selection Sunday: 5 (2-8)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  5. Alabama                  16-2   28-3    SEC    96.5     2
  7. Tennessee                15-3   28-3    SEC    95.7     2
 40. Auburn                   15-3   22-9    SEC    64.3    10
 41. Arkansas                 12-6   21-10   SEC    62.7    11
 42. Kentucky                 12-6   20-11   SEC    61.0    11
 56. Missouri                 14-4   22-9    SEC    39.4     
 61. Mississippi St.          12-6   21-10   SEC    31.2     
 68. Florida                  10-8   17-14   SEC    19.7     
 80. Texas A&M                13-5   17-14   SEC     5.9     
106. Georgia                  13-5   18-13   SEC     2.7     
109. Vanderbilt                9-9   12-19   SEC     2.6     
126. Mississippi               9-9   11-20   SEC     2.2     
148. LSU                      12-6   13-18   SEC     1.6     
259. South Carolina            8-10   8-23   SEC    <0.1

The SEC has two of the top teams in the nation—Alabama and Tennessee—and then it's a long drop to the next three bubble teams. Auburn, Arkansas, and now a resurgent Kentucky have a good chance, while Missouri, Mississippi State, and Florida are on the outside looking in. The league might get 8 teams—or maybe just two. Almost certainly it will be somewhere in-between, with 5 the most likely result. Despite being 13-5 right now, Texas A&M and Georgia will have to fight to finish above .500; Vanderbilt and Mississippi are .500 right now and it only gets harder; LSU is going to have a tough time ahead of them, but still has a small (1.6%) chance to prove us wrong and make the Dance. And South Carolina is out of the picture for all intents and purposes.

Mtn West     teams now: 5    selection Sunday: 4 (3-5)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
 23. New Mexico               17-2   26-5    MWC    89.8     6
 27. Utah St.                 15-4   26-5    MWC    85.7     7
 29. Boise St.                15-4   24-7    MWC    82.4     8
 37. Nevada                   15-5   23-8    MWC    69.2    10
 38. San Diego St.            14-4   22-8    MWC    67.6    10
 73. UNLV                     12-6   19-11   MWC    11.5     
 99. Colorado St.             10-10  16-15   MWC     3.0     
142. San Jose St.             12-7   14-17   MWC     1.8     
171. Air Force                12-7   14-17   MWC     1.0     
196. Fresno St.                6-11   8-22   MWC     0.4     
205. Wyoming                   5-13   7-23   MWC     0.1

The Mountain West is really a major conference this year, and should have at least three teams in the Dance. New Mexico, Utah State, and Boise State are looking very good, and with Nevada running neck-and-neck with San Diego State the conference currently has five in our seeding. The Aztecs have a name and "recency" advantage over the Wolf Pack if only four are picked as we expect. UNLV has looked strong at times but the Rebels started 1-5 in conference play, losing three games at home vs. the top five Mtn. West teams. Every other team still has hope but the future doesn't look bright for the bottom half of the conference when the top half is so strong.

Pac-12     teams now: 3    selection Sunday: 4 (2-7)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  4. UCLA                     17-2   29-2    P12    96.8     1
 15. Arizona                  16-3   26-5    P12    92.8     4
 44. Arizona St.              15-4   23-8    P12    57.7    11
 52. Colorado                 11-9   17-14   P12    46.0     
 58. Oregon                   11-8   19-12   P12    36.1     
 62. Utah                     13-7   19-12   P12    29.5     
 64. Washington St.            9-11  16-15   P12    26.3     
 72. USC                      13-6   19-12   P12    13.1     
101. Washington               12-8   14-17   P12     2.8     
141. Stanford                  6-12  10-21   P12     1.8     
241. Oregon St.                7-12   8-23   P12    <0.1     
247. California                3-16   4-27   P12    <0.1

The Pac-12 is still one of the six best conferences but is plagued by parity and inconsistency. Even Arizona, one of the virtual "locks" along with 1-seed UCLA, has three conference losses. Beyond them nothing is guaranteed; Arizona State is in but on the bubble, while Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington State will fight it out to fill the 4 spots that the Pac-12 should ultimately get. USC isn't out of it at 13-6, but Washington and Stanford aren't looking good and Oregon State and California are stuck at the bottom of the barrel. It's possible for the Pac-12 to get 6 or 7 teams, but for that to happen the no-hopers have to stop upsetting the hopeful, and it doesn't look like that's going to happen. And worst case the Pac-12 is a 2-bid league, despite being probably the 5th best conference.

WCC     teams now: 2    selection Sunday: 2 (2)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
 10. Gonzaga                  16-4   26-5    WCC    94.6     3
 18. Saint Mary's             17-4   26-5    WCC    91.7     5
 81. Loyola Marymount         14-7   19-11   WCC     5.8     
 84. Santa Clara              16-5   22-9    WCC     5.3     
 89. BYU                      14-8   19-12   WCC     4.6     
111. San Francisco            13-9   19-12   WCC     2.6     
185. Pepperdine                7-13  10-20   WCC     0.7     
204. Portland                 10-11  12-19   WCC     0.2     
224. San Diego                 9-12  10-20   WCC    <0.1     
233. Pacific                  10-11  12-19   WCC    <0.1

The West Coast conference always has Gonzaga. And often another team, usually St. Mary's. That's the case this year, with both teams pretty solid picks. While it's possible another candidate emerges, no other team is very close to a bid right now. It looks like the WCC will have two bids this year, and we already know who they are.

American     teams now: 2    selection Sunday: 2 (1-3)

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   Seed
  3. Houston                  18-1   30-1    Amer   97.2     1
 49. Memphis                  14-5   23-8    Amer   49.5    12p
 65. UCF                      13-5   22-8    Amer   24.6     
 78. Cincinnati               14-6   21-10   Amer    6.2     
 95. Tulane                   12-6   20-9    Amer    3.6     
136. Temple                   11-9   14-17   Amer    1.9     
139. Wichita St.               9-9   15-15   Amer    1.9     
198. SMU                       7-12  10-21   Amer    0.3     
199. South Florida             8-11  12-19   Amer    0.3     
229. East Carolina            10-10  13-18   Amer   <0.1     
329. Tulsa                     4-13   4-25   Amer   <0.1

Houston is going to get a bid. As far as at-large bids go, Memphis is right on the bubble for one right now, and UCF could make a run. Probably only one of those two makes it to join Houston. The best chance for a 3rd team is for the Cougars to get upset in the conference tournament.

What is wrong with UConn, Ohio State, Arkansas, and LSU?

Four prominent teams have hit the skids lately. The biggest case is Connecticut, who has lost 5 of their last 6 games. So has Arkansas. Meanwhile Ohio State and LSU have lost 5 in a row. These teams started the season a combined 47-5!

The pattern here seems to be: a team with a long win streak or a lot of success inevitably loses a game or two, usually on the road to good teams. This is normal, but it somehow plays on the team's emotions, and eventually they lose a game to a bad team, maybe even at home, making it very clear that something is actually wrong. That's when the trouble takes root.

Which of these teams are really in trouble? Is it just due to schedule or starting the conference season? Let's look at each one and see where and why they went wrong, and what they look like going forward.

• Connecticut (15-5). Start: 14-0; Recent: 0-5
  Just a few weeks ago they were the overall top seed in our Dance Chance seeding and #1 in the Strength power rating. Now they're a 2-seed and falling, and out of the top 5 in Pomeroy. This one is the biggest puzzle since UConn had its success with a very tough schedule, beating Alabama 82-67 and Iowa State 71-53 in the Phil Knight Invitational.
  
  Fairly narrow home wins over Georgetown and Villanova put them at 14-0 but were also their first signs of not being dominant. The Huskies first losses followed, to Xavier and Providence, both on the road. They rebounded with a solid home win over Creighton and it looked like nothing was amiss. They fell to Marquette but again, that loss was to a good team and on the road. The St. John's loss was the kicked—the Red Storm aren't very good, and they beat UConn in Storrs, and by 11 points. And last night UConn blew a 14-point lead at Seton Hall and lost, 67-66.
  
  So it appears something is wrong with the Huskies. They went from being dominant against a very tough schedule to being a middling Big East team practically overnight. The home loss to St. John's was telling—the team just doesn't have the drive it had in the pre-season. Having reached the top, they lost their hunger to prove they were a great team, and currently they aren't.
  
  Going forward: This one's a mystery. They were the best team in the country and while they could come back from their recent setbacks, it doesn't bode well for March. And a complete collapse isn't out of the question, as it has happened to teams like this before. Over the last 6 games they're playing like the #62 team in the country. UConn plays Butler at home next and they need to win that or their season is in jeopardy. A follow-up win over Xavier (also at home) would show they're still one of the top Big East teams. If they win those, they have a break with DePaul and Georgetown and would have a 4-game win streak and maybe they can put this bad spell in the past. But lose either of those two and their problems are back full force.
  
  
• Arkansas (12-6) Start: 11-1; Recent: 1-5
  The Razorbacks have been as high as a 4-seed in our estimation but have fallen to a 10-seed and after last night's loss to Missouri might be headed lower. They have wins over San Diego State, Oklahoma, and Bradley but problems started with the SEC season. They fell to LSU, and after a home win over Missouri they lost to Auburn and Alabama back-to-back. The bad loss was at Vanderbilt, 97-84. 
  
  All of this has dropped them from #9 in Pomeroy to their current #22. But in Strength over the last 6 games they're playing like the #108 team in the nation. So while some of the problem is tougher schedule, they've clearly played worse basketball lately.
  
  Going forward: Arkansas never looked like an elite team, so the losses to Auburn and Alabama (at home) weren't upsets. And 4 of the 5 losses were on the road. But losing streaks tend to make a team doubt itself, and Arkansas didn't have much room for that against a tough SEC schedule. They need to get a win on Saturday at home vs. Mississippi and another vs. LSU three days later; a two-game win streak would set them back to playing like an above-average SEC team rather than a below-average one.
  
  
• Ohio State (10-8) Start: 10-3; Recent: 0-5
  The Buckeyes were a surging Big Ten team and the wheels fell off right then. Ohio State was 10-3 with losses only to San Diego State, Duke, and North Carolina (in overtime) and started the Big Ten season 2-0. At that point (January 1) they were #6 in Strength, best in the Big Ten, and had jumped to a 3-seed favored to be 26-5 game-by-game.
  
  They hosted Purdue and lost by 2 points which is not a bad showing (and moved them from #11 to #9 in Pomeroy). They subsequently lost to Maryland on the road, again not a terrible performance, but when they fell to Minnesota 70-67 at home, that was the signpost of their decline. The Gophers were (and are) the worst team in the Big Ten by quite a bit. The Buckeyes played well at Rutgers and nearly beat the Scarlet Knights, falling in overtime, but followed that with a loss at Nebraska.
  
  Ohio State's non-conference schedule was loaded with cupcake teams, and they lost to the best three teams they faced outside the Big Ten. So despite how high they ranked, they hadn't—and haven't—shown the ability to beat a top team. In that respect their skid isn't surprising as the Big Ten is a tough conference, but they've played the two worst teams in the conference and lost to them. That means something else is wrong; they aren't handling adversity well. They're #79 over the last 5 games in Strength.
  
  Going forward: The Buckeyes host Iowa, another up-and-down team that is currently getting a rest due to Northwestern's Covid issues. That game will tell us a lot about where the team is headed, and after that they travel to Illinois and Indiana. They have a pretty tough road ahead compared to the other slumping teams. If they go 3-0 it will mean a lot, but they could just as easily (or more likely) go 0-3 even if they play well.
  
  
• LSU (12-6) Start: 12-1 Recent: 0-5
  The Tigers were a surprising 11-1 team in late December when they hosted Arkansas, and even more surprisingly they won that game to start 12-1. Since their pre-conference schedule was so weak (10 of 12 teams ranked worst than #100 in Pomeroy) the Tigers weren't highly thought of in the polls or power ratings, while Arkansas was. But they Tigers had only lost to Kansas State so there was a chance that they were going to be for real.
  
  They started 2023 with a loss at Kentucky and Texas A&M; followed by a home loss to Florida, a road loss to Alabama, and another home loss—67-49—to Auburn last night. None of those are bad teams but many of them—Kentucky, Texas A&M, Florida—aren't great this year. And while losing to Alabama this year is nothing to be ashamed of, a 106-66 loss is always something to be ashamed of.
  
  Going forward: The truth is that LSU just isn't very good. They weren't good at 12-1, despite the Arkansas win, and at 12-6 their record is more representative of their level. On January 1—after the Arkansas win—the Tigers were just #105 in Strength. Now at 12-6 they've slipped to #127. So I actually expect this skid to continue, and to turn into what will look like a "collapse". But in this case it's not a collapse, it will just be LSU playing as they should. Attempting to avert that, they have a very tough challenge up next: Tennessee at home. Looking wounded, maybe they can ambush the Vols and upset them? Even then, they'll have a lot more to prove. Look for LSU to finish around .500 this season and hope for an NIT bid.

Jan 9-15 recap: Kentucky is back in; Houston, Alabama join 1-seeds

Two new 1-seeds after a week that included a record-breaking number of upsets on Saturday. Here's a rundown of the latest Dance Chance March Madness tracker

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
  1. Purdue                   16-1   30-1    B10    97.1   +2.1    1    1
  2. Kansas                   16-1   27-4    B12    96.8   +1.3    1    1
  3. Houston                  17-1   30-1    Amer   96.4   +2.5    1    2
  4. Alabama                  15-2   28-3    SEC    96.0   +2.5    1    2

Purdue takes over as the top 1-seed, but it's more due to Kansas slipping a bit. The Jayhawks barely held on to home wins over Oklahoma, where they were down 10 with 5 minutes left, and Iowa State whom they beat 62-60. Their projection slipped slightly to 27-4, enough to drop them to #2. Moving in this week are Houston and Alabama. The Cougars are starting to have a real chance to go undefeated in the American Athletic, and Alabama is the only team to beat them. The Tide beat Arkansas and LSU last week.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
  5. UCLA                     16-2   29-2    P12    95.6   +2.5    2    2
  6. Tennessee                14-3   28-3    SEC    95.3   +0.6    2    1
  7. Connecticut              15-4   27-4    BE     94.9   +0.6    2    1
  8. Gonzaga                  16-3   27-4    WCC    94.5   +2.1    2    3
  9. Texas                    15-2   25-6    B12    94.2   +2.8    3    3
 10. Iowa St.                 13-3   23-7    B12    93.8   +6.2    3    6
 11. Rutgers                  13-5   24-7    B10    93.4   +1.4    3    3
 12. Baylor                   12-5   22-9    B12    93.1   +5.8    3    6

Tennessee and UConn are the former 1-seeds, now 2-seeds; both were upset at home over the weekend. For Tennessee it looks like more of a temporary setback whereas the Huskies have now lost 4 of their last 5 games, including twice last week. They play Seton Hall on the road and Butler at home this week. Gonzaga moves up to a 2-seed after crushing Portland by 40, and edging BYU on the road by a point.

The 3-line is filled with three Big Twelve teams; Iowa State and Baylor make the jump from the 6-line. The Cyclones crushed Texas Tech 84-50, then nearly beat Kansas in Lawrence as mentioned above. The Bears broke a 3-game losing streak by beating West Virginia on the road and Oklahoma State 74-58 at home.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 13. Virginia                 13-3   25-4    ACC    92.7   +3.9    4    5
 14. Xavier                   15-3   25-6    BE     92.3   +2.8    4    5
 15. Kansas St.               15-2   21-10   B12    92.0   +1.7    4    4
 16. Arizona                  15-3   26-5    P12    91.6   -1.2    4    2
 17. Illinois                 12-5   22-9    B10    91.2  +20.4    5    9
 18. Marquette                14-5   24-7    BE     90.8  +12.2    5    8
 19. Charleston               18-1   30-1    CAA    90.5   -0.5    5    4
 20. Florida Atlantic         16-1   29-2    CUSA   90.1   -1.6    5    3

Arizona dropped another 2 seeds after a bad loss (87-68) to Oregon. Just from that loss the Wildcats fell from #10 to #20 in Pomeroy and from #7 to #12 in the Strength power rating (the difference is mostly due to Pomeroy weighing recent games). Virginia takes over as the top team in the ACC but is still just a 4-seed (the conference tournament champ will be at least a 3-seed though). Up from a 5-seed, the Cavs beat North Carolina and Florida State last week, while Xavier moved up the same amount after topping both Creighton and Marquette at home.

Speaking of Marquette, the lost didn't hurt them—it was expected—and the Golden Eagles also beat UConn 82-76 earlier in the week, lifting them from an 8-seed to a 5-seed. Also moving up big is Illinois who jumps from a 9-seed to a 5 after beating Nebraska by 26 and Michigan State 75-66, ending the Spartans' 7-game win streak. Two mid-Majors round out the 5-line, both down a seed or two as they fight their conferences' weakness. Charleston still looks to go 30-1 but the Colonial Athletic got downgraded a bit so even going 18-0 there might only get them a 5-seed. Florida Atlantic is a much better team but is no longer favored in every future game in the C-USA, dropping them from the 3-line. The two have the longest winning streaks in the nation right now at 17 and 15 as of Sunday. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 21. North Carolina           12-6   23-8    ACC    89.7   +0.6    6    5
 22. Saint Mary's             16-4   26-5    WCC    89.4   +1.0    6    5
 23. New Mexico               16-2   26-5    MWC    89.0  +12.0    6    8
 24. Kent St.                 14-3   28-3    MAC    88.6   +1.7    6    6
 25. Duke                     13-5   22-9    ACC    88.3   -1.6    7    4
 26. Indiana                  11-6   20-11   B10    86.5  +11.0    7    8
 27. N.C. State               14-4   24-7    ACC    84.9   -1.6    7    7
 28. TCU                      14-3   19-12   B12    83.3  +21.9    7   11
 29. Miami FL                 14-3   22-8    ACC    81.7  +23.4    8   11
 30. Nevada                   15-4   24-7    MWC    80.0   +6.1    8    9
 31. Boise St.                14-4   24-7    MWC    78.4   +9.2    8    9
 32. Ohio St.                 10-7   20-11   B10    76.8  -13.8    8    4

New Mexico is tops right now in the ever-evolving Mountain West, after beating San Diego State last week. They also beat Summit League power Oral Roberts in a game scheduled just 2 weeks in advance, so they got a bonus on our projection (which didn't have the game listed). The Lobos move up to a 6-seed, while Duke moves the other way, down three to a 7-seed after falling to Clemson for their 3rd ACC loss. 

TCU and Miami jump up from 11-seeds to the lowest 7-seed and top 8-seed respectively despite both going 1-1 last week. The Horned Frogs narrowly lost to Texas on the road (79-75) and got a very valuable win over Kansas State, 82-68, ending the Wildcats' 9-game win streak. The Hurricanes beat Boston College easily at home 88-72 then almost upset NC State on the road, taking the Wolfpack into overtime. NC State's NCAA odds slipped a bit for the close call but they held their 7-seed.

Ohio State slipped 4 seeds to an 8-seed after losing twice last week to Minnesota at home (a huge upset) and Rutgers on the road (a very close overtime loss). The Buckeyes have now lost 4 in a row but all four were within 7 points; only the Minnesota home loss is grounds for concern, though losing the heartbreaker to the Scarlet Knights must hurt. They'll try to rebound against Nebraska in Lincoln on Wednesday.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 33. Providence               14-4   23-8    BE     75.2  +15.4    9   11
 34. Creighton                10-8   21-10   BE     73.6   -6.6    9    8
 35. Utah St.                 14-4   26-5    MWC    72.0   -9.8    9    7
 36. Iowa                     12-6   20-11   B10    70.3   +7.4    9   10
 37. Arkansas                 12-5   22-9    SEC    68.7  -14.5   10    7
 38. West Virginia            10-7   17-14   B12    67.1  -17.7   10    7
 39. San Diego St.            13-4   22-8    MWC    65.5  -22.5   10    6
 40. Auburn                   14-3   22-9    SEC    63.9  +10.3   10   12

Providence makes five Big East teams in the top 9 seeds as they move up from an 11. The Friars actually lost to fellow 9-seed Creighton on Saturday, their only game of the week, but the close road loss (73-67) was enough to project for them to win the rematch at home, making them 23-8 for the year. Interesting. Utah State, once the Mountain West front-runner, falls to a 9-seed following the surge of 8-seeds Nevada and Boise State, which makes the Aggies schedule tougher going forward. They lost to the Broncos two weeks ago and to the Wolf Pack last week, 85-70, in Reno.

The 10-line is mostly full of losers this week, including San Diego State who falls from a 6-seed to a 10-seed. Another Mountain West team vexed by the growing list of good teams in the league, the Aztecs beat Nevada at home as expected but fell to New Mexico. At the beginning of the year I expected them to be head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, but now there are five Mountain West teams from #31 to #40 in Strength—with SDSU at #40.

Two other 10-seeds drop a lot. Arkansas lost twice, to Alabama and then Vanderbilt, the latter being more destructive to their projection. West Virginia still ranks #20 in Strength but they've lost 5 in a row now including twice last week, to Baylor and Oklahoma. The Big Twelve is clearly the toughest conference top to bottom this year.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 41. Oral Roberts             15-4   26-4    Sum    62.3  -10.1   11    9
 42. Kentucky                 11-6   20-11   SEC    60.7  +38.7   11     
 43. Maryland                 11-6   20-11   B10    59.0  +13.6   11     
 44. Sam Houston St.          13-5   25-5    WAC    57.4   -8.7   11   10
 45. Pittsburgh               12-6   22-9    ACC    55.8  +13.5   12   
 46. Colorado                 11-8   18-13   P12    54.2  -13.5   12   10
 47. Penn St.                 12-5   19-12   B10    52.6  +44.9   12p   
 48. Arizona St.              15-3   23-8    P12    51.0   -1.1   12p  12p
 49. Northwestern             12-5   19-12   B10    49.3  +10.2   12p   
 50. Dayton                   12-6   25-6    A10    47.7   -2.7   13   12
 51. Marshall                 15-4   26-5    SB     47.4  +14.5   13   13
 52. Memphis                  13-5   23-8    Amer   45.8  +16.0   12p     

The big news this week is Kentucky as the Wildcats are back in the seedings after beating Tennessee. Last week they had about a 22% chance to make the tournament, and that dropped to around 7% after a woeful loss to South Carolina at home. So what did they do but turn around and beat the hottest team in the country, Tennessee, on their own home court, 63-56. They're still basically a bubble team but having the Tennessee win on their résumé helps a lot.

Maryland and Pittsburgh made smaller jumps into the bubble range, with the Terps riding an upset of Ohio State to offset a road loss to Iowa, while the Panthers fell to Duke but beat Georgia Tech 71-60 on the road. Penn State's leap was bigger as the Lions were in the single digits prior to beating Indiana 85-66.

Another Big Ten team, Northwestern, edged into a 12-seed play-in spot despite losing twice last week! The Wildcats fell to Rutgers at home by 3 and to Michigan on the road by 7, but it appears that last week's win over Illinois continued to pay dividends as the Illinois moved up this week. Memphis is the last team in despite a mixed bag last week, losing to UCF in double overtime and beating Temple by 2 points, both on the road.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 53. Clemson                  15-3   24-7    ACC    44.2  +23.8      
 54. Virginia Tech            11-6   20-11   ACC    42.6  -12.6        12
 55. UAB                      13-5   25-6    CUSA   40.9  +12.7      
 56. Bradley                  12-7   24-7    MVC    39.3  +14.2   13   13
 57. North Texas              14-4   25-6    CUSA   37.7   +1.7      
 58. Missouri                 13-4   21-10   SEC    36.1   +1.6      
 59. Mississippi St.          12-5   21-10   SEC    34.5   -9.4      
 60. Texas Tech               10-7   15-16   B12    32.9  -14.5        13p
 61. Oklahoma St.              9-8   14-17   B12    31.2  -17.6        12p
 62. Oklahoma                 11-6   15-16   B12    29.6  +18.6      
 63. Washington St.            9-10  16-15   P12    28.0  -28.7        11
 64. Seton Hall               11-8   15-16   BE     26.4   +7.6      
 65. St. John's               13-6   18-13   BE     24.8  +22.0      
 66. Utah                     12-7   19-12   P12    23.2  -23.8        13p
 ...
 79. UNLV                     12-5   18-12   MWC     6.5  -58.0        10

Below the bubble extravaganza: These teams conveniently sorted themselves by conference this week:

• ACC: Clemson and Virginia Tech are the first two teams out. The conference has 6 teams in our seedings this week and very nearly two more. The Tigers beat Duke and also, of course Louisville. The Hokies lost to Syracuse and fell from a 12-seed but they're still in the hunt.
• C-USA: Conference USA has just one team (Florida Atlantic) but two hopefuls in UAB and North Texas. The Blazers lost to Western Kentucky by 2 last Wednesday but rebounded by beating Louisiana Tech on the road. The Mean Green also beat Louisiana Tech and lost to Florida Atlantic but only by 4 points on the road, and they pretty much tread water as a result.
• SEC: Missouri lost twice last week, to Texas A&M and Florida but both were road losses and their prior wins over Kentucky and Illinois helped keep them stable no doubt. Mississippi State also dropped two road games, to Georgia and Auburn, and though they lost ground (and have lost 5 of their last 6) they have a chance to turn things around. There are currently 5 SEC teams in the seeding.
• Big Twelve: Every Big Twelve team is seeded or very close. Seven teams are 10-seeds or better and the other three—Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma—are trying to finish above .500 so they've got a chance at an at-large. Texas Tech has now lost 5 in a row, dropping road games to Iowa State and Texas last week, and Oklahoma State has lost 4 of 5 including road losses to Kansas State and Baylor recently. Oklahoma had a better week but not by much; the Sooners nearly beat Kansas on the road, and edged West Virginia 77-76 at home to avoid going 0-2 as well.
• Pac-12: Washington State, still the best 10-loss team in the country, drops from an 11-seed due to their 1-point close call at home vs. Stanford, and also their Arizona upset from 2 weeks ago cooling off a bit. Utah also falls off the Last Four In as the Utes lost to both UCLA and USC on the road. The Pac-12 has 4 teams seeded.
• Big East: The Big East has 5 teams seeded and these two are trying to hold in the lower bubble. Seton Hall had an easy week with Georgetown and DePaul but beat both on the road, and St. John's got a huge win at Connecticut that revived the Red Storm's fortunes, at least for the time being.

I've also included UNLV as the Rebels take a huge fall from a 10-seed down to 6.5% odds. The Rebels lost to Boise State by 18 at home and then to Colorado State in overtime, also at home. They're the odd man out in the Mountain West now as the conference boasts 5 seeded teams.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
 71. Liberty                  14-5   26-5    ASun   15.1   -2.2   13   14
 77. Iona                     12-6   25-6    MAAC    6.8  -30.8   14   13
 82. UC Irvine                12-5   27-5    BW      6.0   -6.6   14   14
 93. Yale                     11-6   20-7    Ivy     4.2   -1.5   14   14
 94. Youngstown St.           14-5   26-5    Horz    4.0   -0.1   14   14
 99. Montana St.              12-7   23-8    BSky    3.2   -0.8   15   15
116. Furman                   13-6   22-9    SC      2.6   -0.4   15   15
126. SIU Edwardsville         14-5   26-5    OVC     2.4   -0.4   15   16
127. Colgate                  12-7   24-7    Pat     2.4   -0.4   15   15
136. Longwood                 13-6   23-8    BSth    2.1   -0.8   16   15
144. North Carolina Central    9-8   20-8    MEAC    1.9   -0.7   16   16
151. UMass Lowell             15-4   24-7    AE      1.7   -0.5   16p  16p
168. Grambling St.            10-7   23-7    SWAC    1.3   -0.9   16p  16p
185. Northwestern St.         10-8   21-10   Slnd    0.9   -0.7   16p   
188. Texas A&M Corpus Chris   11-7   23-8    Slnd    0.8   -0.9        16p
285. Fairleigh Dickinson      11-8   19-12   NEC    <0.1    0.0   16p  16p

One-bids: Almost nothing new here. Northwestern State slips ahead of Texas A&M Corpus Christi after both went 1-1 this week, and it's still neck-and-neck in the Southland. Yale lost control of the Ivy League mid-week to Princeton after falling to Cornell but the Tigers lost to Brown on Saturday and gave the lead back to the Bulldogs.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/08)
201. DePaul                    8-10   9-22   BE      0.4   +0.4      
207. Minnesota                 7-8    7-23   B10     0.3   +0.3      
215. Wright St.               11-8   18-13   Horz    0.1   +0.1      

Back from the grave: I had so much fun doing this last week that I'm making it a normal feature. As the number of teams at "near-zero" increases these teams will have to be better and better to stay ahead of the avalanche.

• This week DePaul is the top escape artist, with a respectable 8-10 record and now a 0.4% Dance odds. The Blue Demons secret was an upset win over Villanova, though they lost to Seton Hall at home four days later. They look to have only 1 more win left in them so their stay above the <0.1 mark may be short-lived.
• Minnesota is the best story as the Gophers beat Ohio State 70-67 on the road to rise from the grave temporarily at 0.3%. Nevertheless we still don't see another win for them, that is, they won't be favored going forward, but in the Big Ten the opportunity is always there.
• Wright State barely comes up for air at 0.1%. The Raiders got two road wins last week, improving their projection from 14-17 to 18-13, still not nearly good enough for a Horizon League team to have much of a prayer but their immediate schedule could keep them winning for a while.

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Weekend upsets: Kentucky tops Tennessee, St. John's beats UConn

Some major upsets this weekend, as two projected 1-seeds lost at home to teams that were becoming longshots to make the tournament.

On Saturday Kentucky, whose season was fading fast, rebounded in a major way by beating possibly the best team in the nation on their home court. The Wildcats topped Tennessee 63-56 as an 18-point underdog by the Strength power rating where the Vols were #1.

Then on Sunday UConn continued their slide with a stunning 85-74 home loss to unheralded St. John's. Not long ago the Huskies were the top overall seed in the Dance Chance and were still a 1-seed as of Thursday. But after a 14-0 start Connecticut has lost 4 of 5 games and it's clearly seeping into the psychological arena. UConn was also an 18 point favorite.

It's a big turnaround for Kentucky, who was coming off a home loss to South Carolina and was receiving near-obituaries in the press for their season. Probably that's what spurred them to this major upset win which could turn their season around. Just based on this win the Wildcats, who were down to a 7% chance to make the tournament in our Dance Chance, will become a seeded bubble team at the very least, while Tennessee will drop to at least a 2-seed.

St. John's had even lower tournament odds at just 2.9%. They might not immediately be seeded but their odds will go up to at least 10%, and instead their win-loss projection will be firmly on the "above .500" side. Before Sunday, they were projected to be 16-15 before conference tournaments. So while the Red Storm still have a lot of work to do, they took a big step with today's win. But was it really due to anything they did, or a continuation of UConn's slump?

Tennessee's loss can probably be attributed to Kentucky's realization that their season needed to change, but UConn's loss is probably due to psychological repercussions of their recent slump. St. John's was coming off a 5-game slide and not playing particularly well, and UConn's 3 prior losses were on the road to good teams, so a home loss to the Red Storm was very unexpected. But everyone knew Kentucky was capable of playing great basketball, as they were in most people's top 10 in the pre-season. St. John's wasn't in the top 25.

With UConn and Tennessee both dropping from the 1-line, who will move in? Kansas and Purdue are safe of course, and the next two in line would be #5 UCLA and #6 Houston. But because Kentucky increased their stock with the Tennessee win, #7 Alabama might pass the Cougars and take the 1-seed along with UCLA, as both teams beat the Wildcats.